Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Never put a bet up for the thread before , ( too scared) but very sweet on one in the fox hunters . Will be watching the going reports for tomorrow

Don't be silly you big daft sod, put it up & we'll back it.

It's a fun thread, we have a few vacancies & so we are recruiting. You could be a useful asset.

[Larry David]

You would imagine a few gamblers will be piling in on Chizzy at evens v bunting, His confidence must be in bits after being thrashed 10-0 by Peter Wright,Wright,Wright at the weekend.

[Tonibell]

Really like Value at Risk in the potato race tomorrow. The yard, the step up in trip, the ground coming softer won't hurt, and if I'm being honest, the dope angle, are all positives and there's 12-1 available if anyone can get you on with PP. Don't like the place terms though. Anyone likely to go four places in the morning? Want to suggest Fred's 1pt bet ew at 10s or over if they do.

[JohnCharver]

Never put a bet up for the thread before , ( too scared) but very sweet on one in the fox hunters . Will be watching the going reports for tomorrow

Get it up, Micky!

As long as it's Paint the Clouds, or Salsify

Grim thats the two im on.

Was rather taken with beltors last run. Line through one puts him similar to peace and co, and the horse he beat comfortable last time ran well in the fred winter. Also very impressed the way the trainer got modus ready for the bumper and hopefully has this one whos had a much better prep is just as well tuned up.

Either way looks a great days racing.

Post it micky the more thoughts the better the pool of knowledge.

I've got P&C as the 2nd part of a double, with those nonpaying mugs at Boyles, too.

Backed Hargam on advice from Adz ages ago, and backed Beltor straight after the Adonis.

Winning like that, after not settling for the whole race had to have been tough.

Youd be disappointed not to have it between them.

Strange ainsi fideles having a training gallop at fakenham tomorrow (2 runner race other is rated 62 vs 151 lol). Can only think its for fitness ahead of a tilt at something bigger in the coming weeks.

[Karabiner]

If a serious bookie goes 5/1 Silviniaco Conti I'm diving aboard.

It's definitely a much better horse than last year on all visual evidence to these mince pies. I can feel a chaaaaaaarge coming on...

[The Camel]

If a serious bookie goes 5/1 Silviniaco Conti I'm diving aboard.

It's definitely a much better horse than last year on all visual evidence to these mince pies. I can feel a chaaaaaaarge coming on...

Absolute stone cold certainty someone goes at least 5/1 tomorrow.

Might even get 6/1.

[exstream]

11/2 coral in morning, only £20

[Peter-27]

Sorry Peter, I have no intention of backing the 1/4, just wanted to see how you would run this kind of bet alongside the other selections.

Fair enough, I wouldn't really want someone to place a bet if they are uncomfortable with the suggestion!

Have to say, I'm very disappointed with the range of pre-season markets this year - was much better last season. Not sure why that is ..

Anyway, one more pre-season bet:

Marcus Ericsson - To Finish At Least 1 GP In Top 8 During The Season Betting Odds: Yes at 16/11 with 888 and Unibet. The Sauber didn't look horrendous in pre-season testing - they have definitely taken a step forward compared to last season, would be surprised if this doesn't happen at least once this year. It's even more likely at the start of the season with McLaren and Force India still to get up to pace. Suggest £20-£30.

As for Australian GP bets, found A LOT of value spots:

Bwin   - Australian GP - Podium Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 16/1 - £ 5.00 - Quick driver, now in a half decent car, 16/1 is just too high when Ricciardo is 7/2!
Stan James    - Australian GP - Points Finish - Max Verstappen - 3/1 - £ 10.00*** - Toro Rosso should be fighting for points this race, Verstappen looked strong in testing.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Top Six Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 2/1 - £ 10.00*** - Same as bet #1.
Stan James    - Australian GP - Practice One Winner - Valtteri Bottas - 18/1 - £ 5.00 - 18/1 is too high given that Mercedes may well not want to "show their hand" in FP1.
Bwin   - Australian GP - McLaren Total Finishers - 0 - 45/17 - £ 20.00*** - Extremely unreliable in pre-season testing, this price is mad.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Force India Total Finishers - 2 - 19/20 - £ 15.00 - Bullet proof. Should happen if Nico & Sergio avoid a crash.

I put *** next to the top three, just in case you didn't want to invest too much money. For the Stan James ones (I know TFT can't get on there), check oddschecker - sometimes there were equivalent prices available elsewhere.

Additionally, there is an interesting bet that I personally haven't placed - but if you have a big balance, you should get on it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-double-points-finish - NO at 1/4!! Low price, but still FAR too high. McLaren is off the pace and unreliable. This should be more like 1/10. Would suggest a lump here!

I like the mclaren 0 points and force India bets, but would hold off on Erricson until we find out if G van der Garde takes his seat after his win in court this morning.

I think it's unlikely that Ericsson would not drive the majority of the season. The court ruling only effects the Australian GP (if Sauber listen that is), van der Garde would have to do the same procedure in the courts of each country should he want the drive for the season. It's an interesting story actually, either Sauber disobey the court ruling or break F1 regulation .. awkward spot and they only have themselves to blame! As for the bet, yeah, it's understandable to wait - but I personally haven't.

Have to say, I'm very disappointed with the range of pre-season markets this year - was much better last season. Not sure why that is ..

Anyway, one more pre-season bet:

Marcus Ericsson - To Finish At Least 1 GP In Top 8 During The Season Betting Odds: Yes at 16/11 with 888 and Unibet. The Sauber didn't look horrendous in pre-season testing - they have definitely taken a step forward compared to last season, would be surprised if this doesn't happen at least once this year. It's even more likely at the start of the season with McLaren and Force India still to get up to pace. Suggest £20-£30.

As for Australian GP bets, found A LOT of value spots:

Bwin   - Australian GP - Podium Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 16/1 - £ 5.00 - Quick driver, now in a half decent car, 16/1 is just too high when Ricciardo is 7/2!
Stan James    - Australian GP - Points Finish - Max Verstappen - 3/1 - £ 10.00*** - Toro Rosso should be fighting for points this race, Verstappen looked strong in testing.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Top Six Finish - Daniil Kvyat - 2/1 - £ 10.00*** - Same as bet #1.
Stan James    - Australian GP - Practice One Winner - Valtteri Bottas - 18/1 - £ 5.00 - 18/1 is too high given that Mercedes may well not want to "show their hand" in FP1.
Bwin   - Australian GP - McLaren Total Finishers - 0 - 45/17 - £ 20.00*** - Extremely unreliable in pre-season testing, this price is mad.
Bwin   - Australian GP - Force India Total Finishers - 2 - 19/20 - £ 15.00 - Bullet proof. Should happen if Nico & Sergio avoid a crash.

I put *** next to the top three, just in case you didn't want to invest too much money. For the Stan James ones (I know TFT can't get on there), check oddschecker - sometimes there were equivalent prices available elsewhere.

Additionally, there is an interesting bet that I personally haven't placed - but if you have a big balance, you should get on it:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/australian-grand-prix/mclaren-double-points-finish - NO at 1/4!! Low price, but still FAR too high. McLaren is off the pace and unreliable. This should be more like 1/10. Would suggest a lump here!

the usual issues with some of these

We do not have 888, Unibet or the ability to bet with Stan James

its just as well that Peter has advised me to use oddschecker

Click to see full-size image.

all the bwin ones are on

    3/12/2015 10:59 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race specials (How many Force India cars will be classified in the final results?)
    2
    ?

   15.00    1.95       
   3/12/2015 10:58 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race specials (How many McLaren cars will be classified in the final results?)
    No car
    ?

   20.00    3.65       
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race (Top 6 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    ?

   10.00    3.00       
   3/12/2015 10:57 AM    Single bet    

    open GP Australia - Race (Top 3 bet)
    Daniil Kvyat (RUS/Red Bull)
    ?

   5.00    17.00


i can get 15/8 on the Verstappen points finish which is close enough


F1 - Australian Grand Prix
Points Finish
   Verstappen, Max    15/8    
Total stake   £ 10.00
Estimated return   £ 28.75
Full stake   £ 10.00
Full estimated return   £ 28.75

and 18/1 elsewhere on Bottas.

Lewis is going to be too busy carousing with a pit board girl anyway, or crying over Nicole slowing him down by two seconds a lap. Possibly.

anyway, incredibly Coral sent this for review. the trader cogitated, digested, googled Bottas ansd thought "nah, not just been dumped by a pussycat doll" and allowed us the bet

Valterri Bottas18/1Practice 1 Winner - 15/03/2015
Stake £5.00
Estimated Return:£95.00
Total Stake: £5.00
Potential Return: £95.00



that leaves Ericcson unplaced, but as Sauber have 3 contracted drivers and only two seats, lets drop that one

and mclaren no at 1/4. also leaving that, not that it doesn't look too long but we are runnign short of cash

in fact, there is none left on bwin

Haha, you do make me laugh Although I hope you realise that I wasn't trying to teach you how to "suck eggs" - you're far more experienced than me when it comes to betting!!

In my opinion the Lotae are under rated this season in the F1.  Not sure best way to get with them in fixed odds but reckon they are a cracking buy at 92 on spreads for constructors points.

Decent pace in testing, drivers are experienced and cars reliable.  They might be outdeveloped with their smaller budget, but their major funding issues seem behind them.  They have the Merc engine this year after a switch.

Thoughts on this and any fixed odds angle?  Agree with Peter that season wise there don't seem to be too many markets this year.

You have a point here, Lotus probably will be underrated in the market - I'll have a closer look at get back to you/the thread. Wouldn't say their funding issues are behind them though, they are in an extremely precarious position. Without Maldonado's millions, they would struggle to be on the grid! 

[Larry David]

I will keep a close eye on your Motor racing posts still, I find these lesser sports produce some gems in the markets when lazy bookmakers don't update prices or just don't have a clue and you obviously know your stuff.  The popular sports aren't quite as generous.

[tikay]

I will keep a close eye on your Motor racing posts still, I find these lesser sports produce some gems in the markets when lazy bookmakers don't update prices or just don't have a clue and you obviously know your stuff.  The popular sports aren't quite as generous.

It's a bit of an oddity, but I believe "Misc" is our most profitable activity. (But F1 is not "Misc", it has it's own category). 

[Larry David]

I will keep a close eye on your Motor racing posts still, I find these lesser sports produce some gems in the markets when lazy bookmakers don't update prices or just don't have a clue and you obviously know your stuff.  The popular sports aren't quite as generous.

It's a bit of an oddity, but I believe "Misc" is our most profitable activity. (But F1 is not "Misc", it has it's own category). 

That doesn't surprise me one bit, especially when placing bets pre game with no trades, hard to gain edges in these high profile sports taking the prices on offer but with these misc, specials such as x-factor,eurovision etc etc it is more of a level playing field, just my opinion.

[Tonji]

I realise it's a week on the nags on TFT, but a bit of info (only of use if you have 563 account).

Women's GS in Are, Sweden tomorrow.

http://www.oddschecker.com/winter-sports/alpine-skiing/womens-alpine-skiing:-are-giant-slalom/winner

Click to see full-size image.

Oddschecker only show beteveryday to have priced this up. They look to me to be wrong with Tina Maze @ 8/1. I was expecting around 6/1. She knows this hill well, she won earlier in the season here. She seems to be over a minor knee injury with top three spots in the last speed races since Maribor at the end of February. An additional extra edge will be Slovenia course setting the second run.

btw Mikaela Shriffin will turn 20 tomorrow & she's already an Olympic Gold medallist & double World Champion. We need her to make at least top 3 & hopefully Fenniger to mess up for the season bet to still be a sweat going in the final race in Miribel.

[Larry David]

Holy Crap, a skiing specialist also

[BigAdz]

Evening.

Been a rather good festival so far hasn't it?!

Thought I might chuck a few at you for tomorrow.

Keen on Hargam in the Triumph, as Marky said, for a while now, and hope the rains stays away. Then its needs to come down in biblical proportions before the Gold Cup!


I have positions on Martello and Blaklion in the next, but the Irish novices are killing us so, I am hopeful rather than confident.

A few people here have PM and Text me about Cheltanian in the County. Brooky had a torrid time this week with some moderate fare, but this ex winner of the bumper has a knocking chance in the county, and after a good run in the Betfair, is going in with a form chance, as well as being Dickie J's best chance of the week by his own admission. The Irish have a great record in this though and Quick Jack has been heavily punted. I quite like the chances of Hawk High, who looks ready to run well at a decent price.
I can seeDormello Mio running well,() I mentioned Nichols novice hurdlers on the Chelt thread and hopefully a few picked up on that in the FW . This has had a wind op and at 33-1 you don't need to go mad to find out.

We have a 20-1 position on Conti in the GC, but I think everyone knows how keen I am on Many Clouds. I fear his chance is gone if it doesn't rain though. I think Djakadam is way too short now. I have backed him a few times, but I'm not sure he was as impressive in the Thyestees as everyone makes out, and before that he has been all promise. It looks a deep race to me, with no world beaters, but lots of very solid horses he has to progress to, and past, to win.

I like Shoreacres in the Foxhunters, and can't see how its 33-1 vs the 4-1 of Paint the Clouds, if you watch the tenderly ridden second in the H&H to PTC. He has experience of Chelts and finished 4th in the Bumper many years ago, but for a 12 year old has scant mileage on the clock. The doris on top worries me, but thats built into the price, I suppose.

To continue the Nichols novice theme, I really like Le Mercurey in the Martin Pipe race.

Finally, biggest bet of the week in the last on Blood Cotil. I advised a few to back Ned last week to take advantage of the 8-1, which could end up 3-1 tomorrow. However, I have been watching Ruby tug this one back all year, and whilst I had hoped he was going to run in the Plate today, I'm hoping he can finish as he started.

GL all

[tikay]

Good stuff Adzy, thank you. That'll keep Tighty busy in the morning, but at least we have some solid material to work with.