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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 14920453 times)
tikay
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« Reply #102930 on: June 19, 2015, 09:05:49 PM »

Will send Tony £100 now.  Edit.  sent

Safely received, thanks David.
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« Reply #102931 on: June 19, 2015, 09:27:05 PM »

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 27/10 with the exchange. Lewis Hamilton struggled all day today, the last time I saw him have this hard of a time in the Friday practices was Spain, where Nico won the race. The warning signs are there for Lewis. Suggest £10.

Points Finish: Felipe Nasr @ 10/3 with PP. Seems to have hit a good rhythm so far, it appears as if he has found a very good set-up. This may not happen, but the price is good enough to risk £10 with. Felipe will benefit from grid penalties to a host of drivers too (both McLaren's & both Red Bull's).

Group C (HUL/PER/KVY/RIC):
Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/8 with WH. This is a toss up between Nico & Sergio - both of whom have gone in completely different directions with their set-up, so track conditions will be a factor. I'm giving the edge to Nico though; Sergio just didn't look settled or consistent on track all day. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/BUT/ALO): Max Verstappen @ 13/8 with 365. This one is really just between the two Toro Rosso's. I'm picking Max over Carlos purely because of their results today. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-d
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JoeBeevers
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« Reply #102932 on: June 19, 2015, 09:35:26 PM »

looking ok for force india with the new engines



looking ok for McLaren point bears too

FIA release says Alonso will have new engine, turbo and MGU-H. That's a 20-place penalty - almost certainly a drive-through at start of race



I am interested to know if this means that after this GP the new 'engine, turbo and MGU-H' will mean that they are more competitive in future races with a chance of scoring points.

Peter? Do you know how this might affect future races? Or anyone?

I believe Blonde sold McLaren at 153 for £1 and bought Force India at £77 for £1. Originally the main reason was because we thought that Force India had a real chance of scoring more points than McLaren over the season.

Current quotes are now:

McLaren 51 - 57 (so far 4)
Force India 58 - 62 (so far 21)

I am tempted to close out the McLaren position and take that profit whilst letting the FI position run.

Any opinions?

I'm not sure what Tighty meant by new engine to be honest. Mercedes engines have not been upgraded for this race, to my knowledge anyway.

Since Monaco, Force India have been running internal components for their new VJM08B to test reliability, and they've had no problems. This new car will hit the track properly for the first time in the post-Austrian GP test, and will race in the British GP. I believe Sporting Index have not taken this into consideration and I expect Force India to score around 125-150 points this season. That's why two days ago I bought Force India at 53 points for £20.

As for McLaren, I'm not quite sure why everyone (pundits and "experts" included) are so surprised by how badly McLaren have been performing this season. Their Honda engine is a whole year behind the others, this was inevitable and the team themselves expected it. Given that engine development is limited in-season, McLaren will do well to score 25 points all year. In short, I would suggest keeping both bets.

I'm going to scour the F1 markets now, will put up suggestions shortly Smiley

That's good enough for me. I might even press! ;-)
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« Reply #102933 on: June 19, 2015, 09:36:47 PM »

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 27/10 with the exchange. Lewis Hamilton struggled all day today, the last time I saw him have this hard of a time in the Friday practices was Spain, where Nico won the race. The warning signs are there for Lewis. Suggest £10.

Points Finish: Felipe Nasr @ 10/3 with PP. Seems to have hit a good rhythm so far, it appears as if he has found a very good set-up. This may not happen, but the price is good enough to risk £10 with. Felipe will benefit from grid penalties to a host of drivers too (both McLaren's & both Red Bull's).

Group C (HUL/PER/KVY/RIC):
Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/8 with WH. This is a toss up between Nico & Sergio - both of whom have gone in completely different directions with their set-up, so track conditions will be a factor. I'm giving the edge to Nico though; Sergio just didn't look settled or consistent on track all day. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/BUT/ALO): Max Verstappen @ 13/8 with 365. This one is really just between the two Toro Rosso's. I'm picking Max over Carlos purely because of their results today. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-d

If Hulk and Sergio is nearly a tossup, surely we want Sergio as he's twice the price?
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« Reply #102934 on: June 19, 2015, 09:41:47 PM »

Race Winner: Nico Rosberg @ 27/10 with the exchange. Lewis Hamilton struggled all day today, the last time I saw him have this hard of a time in the Friday practices was Spain, where Nico won the race. The warning signs are there for Lewis. Suggest £10.

Points Finish: Felipe Nasr @ 10/3 with PP. Seems to have hit a good rhythm so far, it appears as if he has found a very good set-up. This may not happen, but the price is good enough to risk £10 with. Felipe will benefit from grid penalties to a host of drivers too (both McLaren's & both Red Bull's).

Group C (HUL/PER/KVY/RIC):
Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/8 with WH. This is a toss up between Nico & Sergio - both of whom have gone in completely different directions with their set-up, so track conditions will be a factor. I'm giving the edge to Nico though; Sergio just didn't look settled or consistent on track all day. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-c

Group D (SAI/VER/BUT/ALO): Max Verstappen @ 13/8 with 365. This one is really just between the two Toro Rosso's. I'm picking Max over Carlos purely because of their results today. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/group-d

If Hulk and Sergio is nearly a tossup, surely we want Sergio as he's twice the price?

That is a very valid point. I guess my personal opinion is that Nico will come out on top, but it could well be Sergio. Really just depends on the track conditions. Given the price difference, yes, perhaps Sergio is the better option here. Good point Smiley
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« Reply #102935 on: June 19, 2015, 09:48:48 PM »

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?
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« Reply #102936 on: June 19, 2015, 09:52:27 PM »

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?
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« Reply #102937 on: June 19, 2015, 09:57:49 PM »

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?
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« Reply #102938 on: June 19, 2015, 10:13:47 PM »

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?!  Shocked Grin
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« Reply #102939 on: June 19, 2015, 11:23:41 PM »

good race that

well done Doobs.
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« Reply #102940 on: June 19, 2015, 11:59:45 PM »

With 2 of the third place teams qualifying, don't think we should completely write Ecuador off yet.

They are currently beating Mexico 2-0. Valencia has scored as well
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« Reply #102941 on: June 20, 2015, 12:17:38 AM »

Have taken another £50 out of Jordy at 4 to cover the Tiger loss.

Jordy now loses £1,100, with any other winner returning a profit of £143.

Crows are gonna crow, nits and gonna nit.



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Jordy now wins us £789 for a freeeeeeeroll.


And nits gonna crow....


Nice bet.
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« Reply #102942 on: June 20, 2015, 09:34:45 AM »

Daily Report

Profit on Month £742.83

Outstanding Bets £2733.12

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit?pli=1#gid=25


a loss of £45 yesterday

winner +£100 Ervedya winning at Ascot



losers

-£20 new providence

- £20 arabian queen

-£20 Watersmeet

-£50 tiger woods US Open. +16 is his worst ever score to par through 36 holes in a major as a pro.

-£15 Brendon Todd, US Open

-£20 Azhar Ali top Pakistan run scorer v Sri Lanka

I have added back Ecuador for now, 2-1 winners over Mexico last night with Valencia scoring, though they would need something odd to happen to uruguay or venezuela to qualify as a top third placed team

 Click to see full-size image.


ongoing

Ryan Moore now 9 winners at Royal Aascot after Aloft won the last



Herath has 1 wicket of the 7 Pakistan wickets to fall, Prasad has three so a likely loser there

US Open.

We have the joint leaders at the half way stage

Speith and Patrick Reed at -5

 Click to see full-size image.


Ben Martin going well at -3

 Click to see full-size image.


Rose +2

Matsuyama +1

qualifying in austria today

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« Reply #102943 on: June 20, 2015, 09:43:20 AM »

20 Jun 2015 - Austrian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 3

Nico Hulkenberg @ 11/8

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
23.70
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001353/F

Group is hulk, sergio and the red bulls

--

Verstappen, i can't use bet365 limited to 38p

20 Jun 2015 - Austrian F1 Grand Prix - Group Betting - Race - Group 4

Max Verstappen @ 6/4

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
25.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001354/F

group is toro rosso and mclaren

--

race winner

Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
Profit

    Nico Rosberg 3.65 £10.00 £26.50
    Ref: 51938461422 Matched: 09:02 20-Jun-15

---

Nasr, can't use paddypower. might have said that before

20 Jun 2015 - Austrian F1 Grand Prix - Points Finish - Points Finish

Felipe Nasr @ 3/1

Stake : £10.00
Estimated Returns : £
40.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001355/F
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« Reply #102944 on: June 20, 2015, 09:46:51 AM »

You scared me then for a second, Tighty. Red pen for profit?
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