Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Tighty

The 3.05 is a very good race.  There are 16 runners and a short priced favourite.  Obviously if it goes 15, the race becomes bad.  I think First Flight is a bet, but we can't put it on now. Whoever puts it on will have to wait until 2/2.30.

We can either agree to just let me put £20 e/w for the thread or you can just put it on later.

Don't think there is any harm in having 2 or 3 in this race if it goes off with 16.

Let me know your thoughts. 

Edit.  Currently 9/1.  I would be happy at 8/1 too.  Forget it if lower.

i can check this at 2.30pm

needs 16 runners, and currently is available in spots we can bet it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/15:05/winner

Ok will leave it to you so we don't double up.

[Peter-27]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?!  

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

It was 62 when Joe posted yesterday.  So the price moved between 2nd practice and Joe's post?  

No doubt you move the prices on these markets, especially the thin ones.  I have seen some very big moves this year. I am not sure about what happened here though.

Yeah, bit of a weird one. It's very interesting monitoring the prices

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable

I have £20 on, that's how strongly I recommend this bet. £640 liability .. eek!  

I'm gonna look through the F1 markets now, will post up some bets in like 15 mins if I see anything.

[TightEnd]

anything here? covers or outright value?

i didn't quite make the end at 4am, but Finau looks a monster. Could play second row for the all blacks!

who has showed the best touch on those greens?

[TightEnd]

Grid pens as they stand: Alonso 25 places, Button 25 places, Ricciardo 10 places & now Kvyat 10 places

helps the verstappen bet for tomorrow, in a group with his team mate and the red bulls

[Peter-27]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?!  

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

It was 62 when Joe posted yesterday.  So the price moved between 2nd practice and Joe's post?  

No doubt you move the prices on these markets, especially the thin ones.  I have seen some very big moves this year. I am not sure about what happened here though.

Yeah, bit of a weird one. It's very interesting monitoring the prices

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable

I have £20 on, that's how strongly I recommend this bet. £640 liability .. eek!  

I'm gonna look through the F1 markets now, will post up some bets in like 15 mins if I see anything.

Nothing at the moment, but the market is still forming.

Will look again at 12:30

[JoeBeevers]

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable

I have pressed you by £1 at 62. Your new Force India position is now a £2 buy at 69.5

[edit: price now 61 - 65]

[Peter-27]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?!  

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

It was 62 when Joe posted yesterday.  So the price moved between 2nd practice and Joe's post?  

No doubt you move the prices on these markets, especially the thin ones.  I have seen some very big moves this year. I am not sure about what happened here though.

Yeah, bit of a weird one. It's very interesting monitoring the prices

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable

I have £20 on, that's how strongly I recommend this bet. £640 liability .. eek!  

I'm gonna look through the F1 markets now, will post up some bets in like 15 mins if I see anything.

Nothing at the moment, but the market is still forming.

Will look again at 12:30

The markets are well priced today, sadly for us.

I do like the look of exactly 0.15-0.25 on this market though:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/austrian-grand-prix/qualifying-winning-margin

I suggest £10.

[Pete2504]

No real idea on the true price, but if anyone is interested BMU and Hills are 20/1 on Swindon for League 1 when its generally 12/1 most firms.  Worth backing even with the plan to lay back at a later date?

[TightEnd]

Non runner in 305 Ascot . 15 runners now

[Doobs]

Non runner in 305 Ascot . 15 runners now

Can't run good all the time. 

[TightEnd]

greyhound derby semis tonight

i watched the quarters, ahving never watched any dog racing

what an eye opener. the facilities at wimbledon?! looked like 1955!

anyway, from a cursory look at the semis draw with the knowledge gained from one night's watching (ergo, i am an expert) it seemed quite lopsided. lots of the short priced dogs in one semi

is there any value in either of tonight's semi's or the outright?

[TightEnd]

good call sticking with Hulkenberg over Perez tft, good call

toss up variance in qualifying

[TightEnd]

Adz

I hadn't forgotten Tatlisu

if you see this, should we be on?

[MattyHollis]

greyhound derby semis tonight

i watched the quarters, ahving never watched any dog racing

what an eye opener. the facilities at wimbledon?! looked like 1955!

anyway, from a cursory look at the semis draw with the knowledge gained from one night's watching (ergo, i am an expert) it seemed quite lopsided. lots of the short priced dogs in one semi

is there any value in either of tonight's semi's or the outright?

Champion Hurdle and Derby Plate heats are tonight too with the final next week as well.

Would recommend 'Con Te Partito' in the Champion Hurdle @ 5/1 Hills. Is a class above and 10/11 for tonights semi final. It will be even money after it wins tonight for the final next week. Not sure if you can get on at Hills or not though.

As for the semi finals, I am on Millwards Davy in the second semi final @ 14/1. I think 12/1 is still available with a few firms if you can get on.

[TightEnd]

greyhounds hurdle?

20 Jun 2015 - William Hill Champion Hurdle 2015 - Outright

Con Te Partiro @ 5/1

Stake : £20.00
Estimated Returns : £
120.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001357/F
Total Stake : £20.00

how do they diecide which greyhounds can hurdle?

£15.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
480 Mtrs (Or)
Outright Betting
   Millwards Davy    12/1    
Total stake   £ 15.00
Estimated return   £ 195.00
Full stake   £ 15.00
Full estimated return   £ 195.00