Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

You scared me then for a second, Tighty. Red pen for profit?

Never mind scared you, it nearly gave me a heart attack.

[TightEnd]

You scared me then for a second, Tighty. Red pen for profit?

Never mind scared you, it nearly gave me a heart attack.

sorry, in a mad rush. have to get up earlier

[TightEnd]

i know it can't happen (probably), but lets dream for a moment

US Open   ben martin   250/1   10         £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5
US Open   patrick reed 50/1           20         £10 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6
US Open    Jordan Speith 21.0      94.47

Speith after the layoffs is now a £789 freeroll


come on lads! not as if the greens are tricky or anything

[Doobs]

Tighty

The 3.05 is a very good race.  There are 16 runners and a short priced favourite.  Obviously if it goes 15, the race becomes bad.  I think First Flight is a bet, but we can't put it on now. Whoever puts it on will have to wait until 2/2.30.

We can either agree to just let me put £20 e/w for the thread or you can just put it on later.

Don't think there is any harm in having 2 or 3 in this race if it goes off with 16.

Let me know your thoughts.  

Edit.  Currently 9/1.  I would be happy at 8/1 too.  Forget it if lower.

[JohnCharver]

A few going 4 places on 15 runner 4-20

[Doobs]

A few going 4 places on 15 runner 4-20

That's a great spot.  Not sure what it means though.  Are they still 4 places if 14 runners, or 13??

No matter Brazen Beau at 9/2 beats Betfair and you get 4 places when 3 would be fine just seems an easy bet.  Tighty please confirm if you want 20 e/w in next 15 mins or so.  Australian sprint monster at Ascot.  Should be disadvantaged as 3 years old carrying 4 year old weights, but suspect it is still good enough. 

[DungBeetle]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?! 

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

[Peter-27]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?! 

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

[DungBeetle]

In that case it means they have taken some buyers after the 2nd practice result I imagine, or dropped the ball and been late to respond to the new engine factor you pointed out and now adjusted it.

During pre-season testing quotes can move around by 20+ points as people take positions.  The biggest swings happen during free practice/qualifying in Australia.

The good thing in Sporting Index's credit is that they rarely palp people.  They take a view and if they get burned they take it on the chin.  I've only seen them palp when someone has fat fingered something on website and made an obvious favourite underdog in the tennis for example.

Your bet looks a good position I must say, even at the revised price 10 points higher.

[Doobs]

Peter, I just had a thought, you do realize that £20 a point is a little out of sync with your normal fixed odds bet sizing reccs?

Do you consider this a max/max/max?

To be able to buy at 53 is crazy, they should (and I'm sure will) score way more than that. I bet as much as I could afford without impacting my lifestyle/savings.

It's pretty clear that sporting index haven't considered the impact of the new car coming at the next race. The team would get close to 53 points with their current car, let alone their proper 2015 challenger ..

I have a question on the back of this, do spread betting companies ever limit accounts?

What's the liability and profit on his exact bet?

They're currently on 21, I bought at 53, so I make that a liability of £640 after I bought at £20. Profit .. really depends on how many points they score! I'm predicting 125 points as a minimum, but let's say 100 to be safe. That would be a profit of £940.

Interestingly, since I posted my views on here, the buy value has gone up to 62 .. is that really just due to TFT's influence?! 

It's because the quote was updated after they both were in top 10 after 2nd practice.

I checked straight after 2nd practice and it was 54. Now 62.

It was 62 when Joe posted yesterday.  So the price moved between 2nd practice and Joe's post? 

No doubt you move the prices on these markets, especially the thin ones.  I have seen some very big moves this year. I am not sure about what happened here though.

[TightEnd]

A few going 4 places on 15 runner 4-20

That's a great spot.  Not sure what it means though.  Are they still 4 places if 14 runners, or 13??

No matter Brazen Beau at 9/2 beats Betfair and you get 4 places when 3 would be fine just seems an easy bet.  Tighty please confirm if you want 20 e/w in next 15 mins or so.  Australian sprint monster at Ascot.  Should be disadvantaged as 3 years old carrying 4 year old weights, but suspect it is still good enough. 

you got some 9/2?

i can get 4 places but only 7/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/16:20/winner

so yes if you have it

[TightEnd]

Tighty

The 3.05 is a very good race.  There are 16 runners and a short priced favourite.  Obviously if it goes 15, the race becomes bad.  I think First Flight is a bet, but we can't put it on now. Whoever puts it on will have to wait until 2/2.30.

We can either agree to just let me put £20 e/w for the thread or you can just put it on later.

Don't think there is any harm in having 2 or 3 in this race if it goes off with 16.

Let me know your thoughts. 

Edit.  Currently 9/1.  I would be happy at 8/1 too.  Forget it if lower.

i can check this at 2.30pm

needs 16 runners, and currently is available in spots we can bet it.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/15:05/winner

[JohnCharver]

A few going 4 places on 15 runner 4-20

That's a great spot.  Not sure what it means though.  Are they still 4 places if 14 runners, or 13??

No matter Brazen Beau at 9/2 beats Betfair and you get 4 places when 3 would be fine just seems an easy bet.  Tighty please confirm if you want 20 e/w in next 15 mins or so.  Australian sprint monster at Ascot.  Should be disadvantaged as 3 years old carrying 4 year old weights, but suspect it is still good enough. 

Did this earlier, price looks gone now. The ones who are doing 4 places dont seem to be writing it up as extra place in terms so no idea about withdrawls. The books have been near 100pc  anyway so not too worried if they rob on place.

[Doobs]

A few going 4 places on 15 runner 4-20

That's a great spot.  Not sure what it means though.  Are they still 4 places if 14 runners, or 13??

No matter Brazen Beau at 9/2 beats Betfair and you get 4 places when 3 would be fine just seems an easy bet.  Tighty please confirm if you want 20 e/w in next 15 mins or so.  Australian sprint monster at Ascot.  Should be disadvantaged as 3 years old carrying 4 year old weights, but suspect it is still good enough. 

you got some 9/2?

i can get 4 places but only 7/2

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ascot/16:20/winner

so yes if you have it

Booked.  I sent a PM letting you know I took it on thread's behalf.  Must have been a price match to an offer elsewhere.

[TightEnd]

Alonso needs a new gearbox, so another five-place grid penalty to add to the 20 places he already has

Button a 25 place penalty

think we can run the Mclaren position!

i would be tempted to double up Force India for TfT, i must say. £2 a point with (worst case) downside of 62-21=41 points seems reasonable