Tips for Tikay

[cheapwetsuit]

A brand new month starts today, so I thought I'd get the ball rolling with my first tip for the TdF.

The odds for the team classification are here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/team-classification

Usually I like to pick a team at long odds, who I think are undervalued (like Cannondale-Garmin in the Giro ... who did quite well, but not well enough), but this time I'm going to suggest backing the favourite, Sky. The thing is, their team is so strong, that even if Chris Froome crashes out on day one (more likely day four), I think that Sky still have a good chance of winning the classification. They have three realistic competitors for the title:

1. Astana
They blew away the competition in the Giro, and are thus Sky's biggest foe. Personally, I think they're all on drugs ... well maybe not Nibali. However, whereas Aru had Landa, Tiralongo, Kangert, Cataldo and Sanchez to climb for him in the Giro, Nibali can only rely on Fuglsang (not great on the steeps), Tangert (tired after the Giro), Grivko (powerhouse), Taaramae (inconsistent) and Scarponi. So it's basically Nibali and Scarponi versus Froome and Porte (and Thomas, Kennaugh, Konig, Poels, Roche). I know who I choose.

2. Movistar
Movistar seem to have a half climbing, half time-trial team. To win the team classification, you need at least 4 form climbers. So that's Quintana, Valverde, Anacona (bit of a stretch) and Gorka Izagirre (a bigger stretch). Sure ... Quintana and Valverde will be near the sharp end of things most days, but that won't be enough if the next guy is 20 minutes back.

3. Tinkoff-Saxo
They have good team pedigree. They are a threat, but only if Michael Rogers has a stonking tour (like he has done in the past), or if Basso rediscovers the form of his you (which he won't), or if Bennati doesn't blow all his energy trying to get Sagan stage wins. Contador, Majka and Kreuziger sound good on paper, but will that be enough? Too many ifs for me.

Suggest £20 on Sky to win the team classification @ 7/2.

[TightEnd]

June 2015 Figures

Closed bets: 82
Amount wagered: £3,476.09
Profit/loss: £1,565.83
ROI: 45.05%

Number of "sports" bet on: 12
Most popular: Horses (26), MotorSport (12), Golf (10).
Most profitable: Horses (£1239.84), Golf (£664.40),  MotorSport (£249.10)
Least profitable: Tennis (-£197.00), Football (-£85.00), Cricket (-£75.00)

Number of tipsters: 22 including 1 new tipster.


Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 4,826
Amount wagered: £145,616.91
Profit/loss: £8,458.51
ROI: 5.81%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Football (1,177), Horses(1,177), Golf (378), Cricket(286).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport               Profit  Amt Bet       ROI   No.
Football   4,373.66   36,372.51   12.02   1,177
Misc.   1,814.92   6,300.77   28.80   163
Horses   1,799.57   37,582.94   4.79   1,177
...
Snooker   -450.00   1,275.00   -35.29   38
Tennis   -474.05   4,232.77   -11.20   190
RU   -617.30   4,381.39   -14.09   228


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=4


Total number of tipsters: 176


Number of different bookies/exchanges/agents: 57

Most and least profitable bookies (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Bookie          Profit     Amt Bet   ROI     No.
Bwin      2,937.33   4,752.86   61.80   127
BoyleSports      2,505.40   4,520.45   55.42   116
Ladbrokes      2,149.18   17,608.46   12.21   626
...
PaddyPower      -551.82   7,695.31   -7.17   363
BetDaq      -977.60   1,192.50   -81.98   6
BetFred      -1,578.48   11,371.22   -13.88   381


The complete list is here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=7


This month had the highest profit (and highest ROI) that TfT has ever made.

Motorsport continued its inexorable rise up the table of sports and may soon even be in profit.


Another great performance all round with some spectacular profits. Congratulations everyone.

thanks for this Mere

[TightEnd]

A brand new month starts today, so I thought I'd get the ball rolling with my first tip for the TdF.

The odds for the team classification are here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/team-classification

Usually I like to pick a team at long odds, who I think are undervalued (like Cannondale-Garmin in the Giro ... who did quite well, but not well enough), but this time I'm going to suggest backing the favourite, Sky. The thing is, their team is so strong, that even if Chris Froome crashes out on day one (more likely day four), I think that Sky still have a good chance of winning the classification. They have three realistic competitors for the title:

1. Astana
They blew away the competition in the Giro, and are thus Sky's biggest foe. Personally, I think they're all on drugs ... well maybe not Nibali. However, whereas Aru had Landa, Tiralongo, Kangert, Cataldo and Sanchez to climb for him in the Giro, Nibali can only rely on Fuglsang (not great on the steeps), Tangert (tired after the Giro), Grivko (powerhouse), Taaramae (inconsistent) and Scarponi. So it's basically Nibali and Scarponi versus Froome and Porte (and Thomas, Kennaugh, Konig, Poels, Roche). I know who I choose.

2. Movistar
Movistar seem to have a half climbing, half time-trial team. To win the team classification, you need at least 4 form climbers. So that's Quintana, Valverde, Anacona (bit of a stretch) and Gorka Izagirre (a bigger stretch). Sure ... Quintana and Valverde will be near the sharp end of things most days, but that won't be enough if the next guy is 20 minutes back.

3. Tinkoff-Saxo
They have good team pedigree. They are a threat, but only if Michael Rogers has a stonking tour (like he has done in the past), or if Basso rediscovers the form of his you (which he won't), or if Bennati doesn't blow all his energy trying to get Sagan stage wins. Contador, Majka and Kreuziger sound good on paper, but will that be enough? Too many ifs for me.

Suggest £20 on Sky to win the team classification @ 7/2.

 Tour De France 2015 Sky (Team Classification - Race) Odds: 7/2 Stake: 20.00 Possible Return:  90.00

[TightEnd]

at wimbledon yesterday for our bets

Murray through

Tsnga through in a tough 5 setter

Lisicki through and Halep and Buchard in her quarter out

cricket

Mddlesex pressing for a win against Hampshire who are 47 on with 3 wickets left and a day to go at lords

Warwickshire and Lancs are fighting for draws having conceded big first innings scores to Sssex and Northants respectively

karl brown scored 97 for lancs but progress in the top runscorer bet was stymied when ashwell prince who is miles ahead scored another 84

--
today, Djokovic in round 2 of wimbledon

[Chompy]

That is RIDIC hot out there and it's still early.

As Arb sayed, good luck beating that August.

[TightEnd]

Fifth seed keinishikori has withdrawn from The Championships, due to a left calf injury. He was due to be on centre court today

[TightEnd]

That is RIDIC hot out there and it's still early.

As Arb sayed, good luck beating that August.

Hotter than Rio de Janeiro, where it's the middle of winter

good old daily mail

[TightEnd]

July UK record temps:

36.5 Wisley 2006
36.0 Epsom 1911
35.9 Cheltenham 1976
35.7 Cheltenham 1976
35.6 Trowbridge 1976
35.6 Camden 1923

tikay was only talking to me about that Camden day in 1923 the other week

[TightEnd]

the hottest July day ever recorded.

The Met Office said a temperature of 36.7C (98F) had been reached at Heathrow - breaking the previous record set in 2006.

[Karabiner]

Have Billys paid out yet?

[Chompy]

And still Hills want to lay 2-7 about July.

Do we, don't we, do we...

[Peter-27]

Motorsport continued its inexorable rise up the table of sports and may soon even be in profit.

That's my goal! Want to get Motorsport #1!

[arbboy]

And still Hills want to lay 2-7 about July.

Do we, don't we, do we...

Do we for the max imo!

[Chompy]

Don't normally like playing at 2-7 but this is a ridic price.

Rec £350 to win another hundo please.

[MattyHollis]

Don't normally like playing at 2-7 but this is a ridic price.

Rec £350 to win another hundo please.

When would you expect this bet to settle IYO?