Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

not that i am getting even more boring than i already was but what is this?

Click to see full-size image.

it is the flight radar of the LCFC owners private jet, currently en route from England to Olbia, in Sardinia

Sardinia? who might be there in the off-season?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/leicester/next-permanent-manager



perhaps?

(off to check who manages football clubs in sardinia...)

John Carver likes to spend his summers there?

[TightEnd]

Draw announced for the first two rounds of TheOpen. View the full list here: http://po.st/R1R2Draw 

What prices would the Jordy/Matsu/Johnson 3 ball be on Thursday do you think?

I'll take a stab to an overround of 120% or so

jordan 10/11

dustin 6/4

matsu 9/4

will see what comes out!


anyone else want to get closer than me?

[Karabiner]

Can anyone tell me why Tom Watson is not included in any of the "top senior" books on oddschecker?

[jakally]

Can anyone tell me why Tom Watson is not included in any of the "top senior" books on oddschecker?

Is he now classed as a SuperSenior?

[Chompy]

When framing a book, go to 2% per competitor imo. No idea what they bet to in threeballs but can't believe it's as high as 120%, prob nearer 105%. Will be near enough 100% on the machine.

[Karabiner]

Can anyone tell me why Tom Watson is not included in any of the "top senior" books on oddschecker?

Is he now classed as a SuperSenior?

Well possibly yes but that wouldn't change his status in this market.

Surely they couldn't have left him out just to make the seniors market a 7-runner race.

Pretty strange oversight as he almost won it three years ago.

[Doobs]

Can anyone tell me whether Spieth @ 13/2 is a good bet for the Open, with McIlroy out of the frame?

You can get 7/1 and 7 places right now on a Shy price boost.  Sure it is OK for those who didn't get the 20/1 earlier in the year

[BigAdz]

Draw announced for the first two rounds of TheOpen. View the full list here: http://po.st/R1R2Draw 

What prices would the Jordy/Matsu/Johnson 3 ball be on Thursday do you think?

I'll take a stab to an overround of 120% or so

jordan 10/11

dustin 6/4

matsu 9/4

will see what comes out!


anyone else want to get closer than me?

Yes. I might put Jordy and Dustbin a bit closer.

I'm hoping Matsu is this and a bit, as I see him a good oppo for a wager.

Jordy, I would almost have as dog. Its almost like he gives fields a head start, to make it interesting for himself(I don't think he does, but his inability to shoot v low first round is quite common-no facts to back this up however, just general observation over the last couple of years as a fanboy).

This could be Dustbins track and with his new found PMA from Wayneo Gretski, he could just blitz from the gun, but I wonder if playing with his vanquisher from the US Open, he may not get off to a flier either.

Matsu seems to always have a reasonable first round, and if he is 3-1ish, could make me look more stupid than normal, and a lot poorer.

Anyone else think along the same lines and help me to wade in?

[nellberg]

Odd one. I've had a look through some stats tonight on the NRL. There are some amazing stats databases out there in Aussie sports for free. I'm not a huge rugby league fan, but I fancy an underdog.

So, the Manly Sea Eagles travel to play the Gold Coast Titans. Both teams have had poor seasons but Manly have disappointed more than the hosts, as some were tipping Manly for the title at the start of the season and now these two teams are fighting to stay in contention to squeeze into the post-season.

The big story is the star Sea Eagle player, Daly Cherry-Evans, who said he'd be joining Gold Coast, but then went back on his word. Good reception coming his way, I'm sure.

Click to see full-size image.

Manly have been poor at scoring, this season, unlike their opponents, but Gold Coast have had a rotten defence this season. It's actually the worst attack against the worst defence.  

From Crocodile Billy Mountain's website:

Gold Coast with a 9-6 ATS record...while Manly are 7-8 ATS with an 8-7 under record.
When a home outsider the Titans are 10-7 ATS, while they are 3-2 ATS. In night home games the Titans are 7-10 ATS. Manly have covered just two of their last 12 road games and none of their last five as a road favourite (including four outright losses).

I have found that Gold Coast have covered the last three times against Manly at home and they have only lost by eight or more once against them.

Points line is 6.5, with Manly being favourites away. I can only expect 6 is a big number in Rugby League, so we like having 6 in our favour.

The game will likely be very intense, full of effort and a partisan crowd. Feels like a close game.

If it's still around in the morning when the placers are up, and assuming there are no objections - mere, hector and any other rugger league folks, please do point out any idiocy contained herein - recommend £30 on Gold Coast Titans +6.5 at 5/6 with Billy Mountain.

Starts 10am UK time, I believe.

Manly have struggled with injuries this season, just getting bodies back now, so their league position is likely to be false. They'd still be expected to at least make a push for the play-off's, where as the Titans are pretty poor and won't be making the post-season. Certainly wouldn't have expected a 38-6 demolition though

[doubleup]

Draw announced for the first two rounds of TheOpen. View the full list here: http://po.st/R1R2Draw  

What prices would the Jordy/Matsu/Johnson 3 ball be on Thursday do you think?

I'll take a stab to an overround of 120% or so

jordan 10/11

dustin 6/4

matsu 9/4

will see what comes out!


anyone else want to get closer than me?

Yes. I might put Jordy and Dustbin a bit closer.

I'm hoping Matsu is this and a bit, as I see him a good oppo for a wager.

Jordy, I would almost have as dog. Its almost like he gives fields a head start, to make it interesting for himself(I don't think he does, but his inability to shoot v low first round is quite common-no facts to back this up however, just general observation over the last couple of years as a fanboy).

This could be Dustbins track and with his new found PMA from Wayneo Gretski, he could just blitz from the gun, but I wonder if playing with his vanquisher from the US Open, he may not get off to a flier either.

Matsu seems to always have a reasonable first round, and if he is 3-1ish, could make me look more stupid than normal, and a lot poorer.

Anyone else think along the same lines and help me to wade in?

On average Jordan is the best starter - not much between the other two.  I actually looked at who would have won an imaginary 3 ball when all 3 played over the last two years:

One 3 way tie

6 wins to Jordan

5 wins to Dustin

3 wins to Hideki

So that would be about  5/4 6/4 3/1 @ a 110% book

edit One stat that might account for your perception

78% of Hideki's first rounds are better than average compared to 73% for Jordan and 70% for dustin

[jakally]

Yes. I might put Jordy and Dustbin a bit closer.

I'm hoping Matsu is this and a bit, as I see him a good oppo for a wager.

Jordy, I would almost have as dog. Its almost like he gives fields a head start, to make it interesting for himself(I don't think he does, but his inability to shoot v low first round is quite common-no facts to back this up however, just general observation over the last couple of years as a fanboy).

This could be Dustbins track and with his new found PMA from Wayneo Gretski, he could just blitz from the gun, but I wonder if playing with his vanquisher from the US Open, he may not get off to a flier either.

Matsu seems to always have a reasonable first round, and if he is 3-1ish, could make me look more stupid than normal, and a lot poorer.

Anyone else think along the same lines and help me to wade in?

I want to oppose Spieth purely on the basis he's been in the States until today. No idea on the schedule for Johnson/Matsuyama, and no stats to say it's a problem, but feels like bad prep when going to a unique course / different type of course / strong field.
Obviously he's ridiculously good at golf, so may not be an issue for him.

[Doobs]

The Open is much harder work this year than before.   The wrong bookies are offering best offers and I have just done a trawl and half the prices I'd like are gone before I have bet (guess somebody can do this quicker).  I assume we can't get on with BFSB.

As a result I'll just put a couple of longer ones up.

We should back Debuisson just because he is just so bloody cool, but we also get a bit of value if we get 6 places and 90/1 with tote/fred.  suggest a fiver each way if we can get it.

Lee Westwood is standing out massively, and not just because he likes a pie or two.  I really don't like backing him and am a bit appalled he has shown up so well.  Vic are going 90/1 6 places which looks good on maths.  BFSB 80/1 8 places would be about as good as any this week on the maths, and you can get that with 7 places which is also decent.  He also has a new love alledgedly, so Peter's imaginary loved up adjustment would be a positive here.  suggest a fiver each way if we can get that 90/1 6 places.

Others that show up are Stenson and Rose, which I think we already have, and I just missed the price on Bubba, Garcia (up there with Westwood for the bargepole for me, but the price went anyway) and Rickie Fowler.

Snedeker is good at 50/1 with PP as they give 7 places, but they are bitch to get on with.  Suggest fiver each way if we can.

There a couple on Shy for those that can too (rose 20/1 and Matsuyama 40/1).

There are loads with BFSB, but I can't get on and this takes time, and they'll just close you if you bet anyway.  
 
I could probably have put 50 up last year, slim pickings this.

Am also on Jordan from before for this and the PGA, just to declare that now.

FWIW early draw on Thursday looks best, but it doesn't look great any time on Friday.  

[Doobs]

I just checked the spreadsheet and it doesn't look like we are on Rose.  If we can get BFSB then 20/1 8 places is good, suggest a tenner each way.

I didn't mention Oosthuizen either, but he the 25/1 6 places is good on maths.  I am on already, as is thread, thanks to newportlad and Tighty. 

[TightEnd]

The Open is much harder work this year than before.   The wrong bookies are offering best offers and I have just done a trawl and half the prices I'd like are gone before I have bet (guess somebody can do this quicker).  I assume we can't get on with BFSB.

As a result I'll just put a couple of longer ones up.

We should back Debuisson just because he is just so bloody cool, but we also get a bit of value if we get 6 places and 90/1 with tote/fred.  suggest a fiver each way if we can get it.

Lee Westwood is standing out massively, and not just because he likes a pie or two.  I really don't like backing him and am a bit appalled he has shown up so well.  Vic are going 90/1 6 places which looks good on maths.  BFSB 80/1 8 places would be about as good as any this week on the maths, and you can get that with 7 places which is also decent.  He also has a new love alledgedly, so Peter's imaginary loved up adjustment would be a positive here.  suggest a fiver each way if we can get that 90/1 6 places.

Others that show up are Stenson and Rose, which I think we already have, and I just missed the price on Bubba, Garcia (up there with Westwood for the bargepole for me, but the price went anyway) and Rickie Fowler.

Snedeker is good at 50/1 with PP as they give 7 places, but they are bitch to get on with.  Suggest fiver each way if we can.

There a couple on Shy for those that can too (rose 20/1 and Matsuyama 40/1).

There are loads with BFSB, but I can't get on and this takes time, and they'll just close you if you bet anyway.   
 
I could probably have put 50 up last year, slim pickings this.

Am also on Jordan from before for this and the PGA, just to declare that now.

FWIW early draw on Thursday looks best, but it doesn't look great any time on Friday. 

Duboisson, the 90-1 has gone. 80-1 six places bv is best if you want it? let me know

Westwood. Sigh, really?

6 places  Outright Lee Westwood (EW) (Outright - Tournament) Odds: 90/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return:  572.50

Snedeker. PP is a no go

Rose is on £10 e/w 8 places 20-1 Betfair sports



I was reading the v good betfair preview (steven rawlings) that was talking about thongchai Jaidee

this sort of thing. an extract

"Par 4 Performance is arguably the most important stat. Oosthuizen ranked number one in 2010 and played them in 13-under-par and so did Woods in 2000 and five years later he played them in seven-under, a tally only bettered by Darren Clarke, who played them in eight-under.

Playing the par isn't just vital at St Andrews - seven of the last ten Open winners have ranked 1st or 2nd so it's a key tournament stat, regardless of venue.

Here are the top-ten ranked players for Par 4 performance over the last three months (excluding the Scottish Open and John Deere Classic results) on both main tours.

European Tour Top-Ten
Thongchai Jaidee -5 3.97 average (18 rounds)"

https://betting.betfair.com/golf/the-open/the-open-championship-2015-betting-preview-090715-167.html

300-1+ on the exchanges.

[superwomble]

Ranieri announced as Leicester's new manager. Nice one tighty!