Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Would seem a shame not to have Tikay looking at Watford results for the 3rd year on the trot, so I've been looking at the handicap markets.

It seems no matter how many established top European league players Watford buy their relegation odds remain unchanged.  The Spread firms are spitting on them allowing you to buy at 35 points!  Handicap market seems most fun way to play at 15/1 they get a walloping 48 point start.  I am piling in the spread but for handicap I can see them finishing between 10th and 15th which should win with that start.  Recommend £50 for the season sweat.

To clarify squad, they have all of last years players (Vydra, Deeney, Abdi, Angella, Cathcart all signed 4/5 year renewal contracts).  They've declined to pursue Guediora after his loan (which surprised me) and sold McGugan (who didn't play).

The additions:  

An entire new defence of Holebas, Prodl, Britos, Nyom.   All regulars in top league teams last year (Roma, Bremen, Napoli, Granada).  Defence was unquestionably our soft spot last year.   These provide competition for Paredes, Cathcart, Angella, Layun, Hoban.

New defensive midfield unit in Capoue (Spurs) and Behrami (Hamburg).  Backed up by Watson.

New attacking midfield options in Jurado (Spartak Moscow) and Beghuis (AZ Alkmar).   To complement Abdi/Vydra/Forrestieri/Anya/Dyer (back in favour)

Attack left unchanged.   Flores will play 4-2-3-1 with the 1 being Deeney, with Ighalo and Vydra available to support or fill in in the "3" behind him.

I suspect there will be one more signing.

I don't see this as a relegation squad and think they will score goals at this level.  I cannot fathom why this squad is still behind Norwich, Sunderland and Bournemouth in the betting.

I'd definitely back them each way.  I think you need 100 to win and 90 for 4th going by the last couple of years.  Given all the points you get added, I think 4th is much more likely.  I don't think 15th is ever going to give you the win, and not even convinced 11th would.

I haven't looked at the handicaps, so don't know which firm is best.  +49 in one could be worse than +46 in another.

Agree with Doobsy here. Been thinking about backing T_h'Orns on th'andicap and th'ink I'll have some each-way.

The Premiership handicaps give the lesser teams a better shot than they get in the lower leagues. L1 handicaps are way too compressed imo and think I'll have to back Wigan here also. Jacobs another good pick-up for them yesterday after missing out on Clucas to Dull (another nail in the Chesterfield coffin).

I was looking to back Gillingham but no interested at +16. Would sooner back them at 5-1 to finish in the top six, but even that's not massively appealing.

[Tal]

59 degrees on track in Hungary. When do we consider betting on Vettel and the red lot's tyre management?

Looks like a good call Tal.

Cooler today but I'm banking on the Mercs not being able to one stop.

[MattyHollis]

OMG disaster for Hulkenburg

[TightEnd]

Watford

last year 40 points got 14th -15th

96-98 to win the handicap (swansea, southampton)

90+ for 4th place (palace)

Betfred +49 points gives you a shot if Watford get 40 points

seems the best route i think?


50 points seems wildly optimistic, which you would need to bet win only

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/handicaps


by the by Watford are at a bigger handicap to Norwich, whose manager Alex Neil has said publically this week that he is struggling to attract players. Seems very odd.

[Killerkilsby]

 
Worth mentioning watford to get 50 points or more is 28/1 with Tikays company as a special.

Watford

last year 40 points got 14th -15th

96-98 to win the handicap (swansea, southampton)

90+ for 4th place (palace)

Betfred +49 points gives you a shot if Watford get 40 points

seems the best route i think?


50 points seems wildly optimistic, which you would need to bet win only

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/handicaps


by the by Watford are at a bigger handicap to Norwich, whose manager Alex Neil has said publically this week that he is struggling to attract players. Seems very odd.

[DungBeetle]

I think buying Watford points at 35.5 is a really good bet if Fred can access spreads.  No need to go wild - £15 a point or something.  Otherwise lets do each way on the handicap.

Any match bet with Norwich would be of interest as well, where Watford would be dogs.  But then there is a problem of tying up cash for a year at a little over evens which puts me right off that one.

Also spreadswise - Southampton can be sold at 56.  They've sold Clyne and Schneiderlin and teams know more about their players from last season.   This doesn't look like a sell with much downside?  If they repeat last year's excellent season you lose 4 points.   Crucial factor is Europa League adventures.

They've added Clasie, Juanmi and Soares.

Perhaps Ironside can comment on their prospects verses last year.

[MattyHollis]

Nightmare results in Hungary for FI and the Kvyiat spread bet!!

Well done Tal with Vettel.

[TightEnd]

£25.00 Single
Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Premier League 2015/2016
Season Handicap
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4   Watford (+49)   15/1   
Total stake   £ 50.00
Estimated return   £ 518.75
Full stake   £ 50.00
Full estimated return   £ 518.75


Rather than opening spread accounts

i think the doobs reminder of 100 points to win 90+ points each way including the handicaps is the important one here when we look at those handicap prices


for example palace are +38.

last season they got 48 points

people are bullish on palace

can they realistically imrpove 10-12 points for +38 to be interesting though?

[TightEnd]

That was a great F1 race

upsides Vettel v Ricciardo and Kvyat v Ricciardo positions

Downsides. Force india no points, mclaren both in the points. rosberg had a great chance to make a lot of points on hamilton too

we got done on both Bottas bets too, late puncture/incident

[Doobs]

That was a great F1 race

upsides Vettel v Ricciardo and Kvyat v Ricciardo positions

Downsides. Force india no points, mclaren both in the points. rosberg had a great chance to make a lot of points on hamilton too

we got done on both Bottas bets too, late puncture/incident

Best F1 race I can remember in some time.  Can just enjoy it for that even if we lost.  I know I did both.

[MattyHollis]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

[TightEnd]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

[MattyHollis]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

Should have would have etc, all well and good and yes I saw the race so know where Hulk and Perez were running at the time of incidents.

That being said the front wing just crumbled for Hulkenberg, no real reason why as yet?

And whether they should or could have both scored points or not before incidents, fact is that this is another race down that they can't score points?

As I said, they were 92 to close before today and 94 after today with one less event and 0 points added, so one of those has to be an incorrect line.....?

[kukushkin88]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

Should have would have etc, all well and good and yes I saw the race so know where Hulk and Perez were running at the time of incidents.

That being said the front wing just crumbled for Hulkenberg, no real reason why as yet?

And whether they should or could have both scored points or not before incidents, fact is that this is another race down that they can't score points?

As I said, they were 92 to close before today and 94 after today with one less event and 0 points added, so one of those has to be an incorrect line.....?

There isn't a sound argument for saying either of them are wrong. There is a lot more information available now and the line has changed, seems standard. The fact that it hasn't changed as you'd expected probably just shows that the fact at SPIN is better informed than you.

[MattyHollis]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

Should have would have etc, all well and good and yes I saw the race so know where Hulk and Perez were running at the time of incidents.

That being said the front wing just crumbled for Hulkenberg, no real reason why as yet?

And whether they should or could have both scored points or not before incidents, fact is that this is another race down that they can't score points?

As I said, they were 92 to close before today and 94 after today with one less event and 0 points added, so one of those has to be an incorrect line.....?

There isn't a sound argument for saying either of them are wrong. There is a lot more information available now and the line has changed, seems standard. The fact that it hasn't changed as you'd expected probably just shows that the fact at SPIN is better informed than you.

I've no doubt they are better informed and don't deny that. I am new to the sport as I said.

I still don't know how the line can go up. 'a lot more information is available now'. Yes the information available is generally pretty bad for Force India with Perez's car not being able to handle practice, and Hulkenbergs car not being able to handle the track. There is something amiss there no - or is there information to suggest otherwise already?

If there is more information available now and the line goes up after a weekend like this for the team - then they clearly didn't have enough information before this weekend to have the line correct?

I mean, we could have absolutely maxed the line pre this weekend, and with arguably(?) the worst weekend of the season to date for Force India, still made money. Somewhere, something is incorrect there?