Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

Should have would have etc, all well and good and yes I saw the race so know where Hulk and Perez were running at the time of incidents.

That being said the front wing just crumbled for Hulkenberg, no real reason why as yet?

And whether they should or could have both scored points or not before incidents, fact is that this is another race down that they can't score points?

As I said, they were 92 to close before today and 94 after today with one less event and 0 points added, so one of those has to be an incorrect line.....?

Think of the market as comprising both expectation and observed results.  The expectation part recognises a weekend where they had good pace.  The observed part recognises that a race has passed with zero points.  However, the "expectation part" has gone up by more than the "observed part" has gone down.

In the first race of the season, the "expectation part" will be far greater a determinant on pricing than the "observed part".  For example, better to qualify on pole and drive into a tree, than qualify 15th and limp to 8th place.

Conversely, by the last few races of the season, the expectation hardly factors at all because most races are run and it's purely about observables (i.e. points haul).

[hector62]

Ben Currie scored a try for Warrington.

[DungBeetle]

This applies to football season points as well.  You can lose the first match, but if you play well your points quote can rise.  Think this happened after Southampton's display at Anfield on the opening day last season.  In the last month of the season though, your performance is irrelevant - all about the result.

[MattyHollis]

This applies to football season points as well.  You can lose the first match, but if you play well your points quote can rise.  Think this happened after Southampton's display at Anfield on the opening day last season.  In the last month of the season though, your performance is irrelevant - all about the result.

So arguably Southamptons points total was wrong before?

As I said, one or the other is wrong after a weekend like this? The only way the previous line could be perceived as correct would be if FI's projected points this weekend were -2?

FI have shown pace like the first ~20 laps this weekend over the last two races (at least) as well...

[DungBeetle]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

[MattyHollis]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Thanks - not arguing, just wanted to know which quote was incorrect. More a have we missed a trick or is now the time to close as it is too high - one had to be incorrect I just was interested in which one was in peoples opinions.

[MattyHollis]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

As for the edit...

I understand that completely we could look back every weekend and say something was incorrect - however that would be on a good weekend for a team/person/whatever the sport would be.

It's only that it's the worst possible weekend for the team that one has to be wrong in this case.

[DungBeetle]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

As for the edit...

I understand that completely we could look back every weekend and say something was incorrect - however that would be on a good weekend for a team/person/whatever the sport would be.

It's only that it's the worst possible weekend for the team that one has to be wrong in this case.

You are correct of course.  But the million dollar question is which quote is wrong

[MattyHollis]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

As for the edit...

I understand that completely we could look back every weekend and say something was incorrect - however that would be on a good weekend for a team/person/whatever the sport would be.

It's only that it's the worst possible weekend for the team that one has to be wrong in this case.

You are correct of course.  But the million dollar question is which quote is wrong

So what you are saying is you don't know the answer to that either

[MattyHollis]

Although I hope you know the answers to the Prem as I have bought Watford and sold Soton on your recc's with SPIN. 

[DungBeetle]

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

As for the edit...

I understand that completely we could look back every weekend and say something was incorrect - however that would be on a good weekend for a team/person/whatever the sport would be.

It's only that it's the worst possible weekend for the team that one has to be wrong in this case.

You are correct of course.  But the million dollar question is which quote is wrong

So what you are saying is you don't know the answer to that either

In summary yes  10 races to go.  Will they score 5 points a race for rest of the season? - I'd probably say yes.  They look best placed to mop up points behind Merc/Williams/Ferrari.  I'd say it's actually more about what Red Bull/McLaren do than what Force India do.  if Red Bull/McLaren don't improve on high speed circuits (which they will struggle to do with this engine token business) then I can see Force India getting over 100 points with a bit to spare.

Just my opinion of course

[DungBeetle]

Although I hope you know the answers to the Prem as I have bought Watford and sold Soton on your recc's with SPIN. 

Ha - Watford v Southampton is a big one in week 3.  Hopefully it's just after a Europa league trip to the far side of the moon for the Saints.

[TightEnd]

Ben Currie scored a try for Warrington.

good stuff, saves the day

[RobS]

On the Prem handicap market is the 125% book not off-putting?

[Karabiner]

Ms.Stirk looking rather tarty in the sky golf studio this evening.

Legs or cleavage darling but not both.