Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Choral's lolspecialsloltraderguesser has taken a chance on Celebrity Big Brother, especially as they offer...

'Stakes returned on any quoted celebrity who doesn't enter the house. Others may be added.'

Janice Dickinson is favourite in a few lists and seems fairly likely to go in but they have her at 25-1.

Flick in £50 at that price please, can trade it in due course. They should take it. Remember, Choral are a proper bookmaker. They said so on the telly.

sent to trader

trader cogitated

offered a fiver only

trader went back to sleep

[Chompy]

Amazeballs. Someone should let Simon Clare know.

[arbboy]

I was discussing this type of thing at uttox races with a fellow pro punter how these traders would actually deal with these knock backs if they actually had to do them face to face in the betting ring and look you right in the eye man to man and say 'listen son you can only have a fiver on that at 25/1 not £50'.  You just never seem to get knocked back in the betting ring at the races (unless you ask for obv bad ew) on bet sizes that with the same firms would offer you a pony instead of a monkey.  On course they don't know who you are and, secondly, their ego kicks in and they don't seem to want to have the embarrassment of knocking you back.  

BTW on Friday at Uttox there was a layer at the track (can't remember his trading name) but his board said from Derby.  He was the spitting image of bookie basher from blonde but wasn't him.  Does Jim the bookie have a brother who stands on course?  I have never seen this pitch at Uttox before. 

[Chompy]

Janice now smashed into 16-1. Have £25 at that price please.

[TightEnd]

Janice now smashed into 16-1. Have £25 at that price please.

offered another fiver at 16-1

i think he probably wonders when we will get the message

[Peter-27]

Nightmare results in Hungary for FI and the Kvyiat spread bet!!

Well done Tal with Vettel.

Yep, really was a nightmare. Thankfully unpredictable and chaotic races like that are an anomaly   

That was a great F1 race

upsides Vettel v Ricciardo and Kvyat v Ricciardo positions

Downsides. Force india no points, mclaren both in the points. rosberg had a great chance to make a lot of points on hamilton too

we got done on both Bottas bets too, late puncture/incident

Best F1 race I can remember in some time.  Can just enjoy it for that even if we lost.  I know I did both.

LOVE this comment 

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

I STONGLY don't reccomend you close now, I expect Force India to score circa 150 points this season, 100 as a minimum.

Tighty is right, the points accumulation should rocket up from the next race. The remaining races are:

Belgian Grand Prix**
Italian Grand Prix**
Singapore Grand Prix**
Japanese Grand Prix**
Russian Grand Prix
United States Grand Prix
Mexican Grand Prix
Brazilian Grand Prix**
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

.. and the ones with ** next to them are ones that should definitely suit the team. Double points is an expectation in these races, not just a hope

My Force India position is worth more after the race than before it, with NH crashing and SP retiring. Work that out?

94 points I can close at now, is this worth considering?

the quote is trying to discount what will happen as much as what has just happened and i doubt the person setting the quote is going to over-react to the randomness of one race with plenty of unpredictable incidents

Hulkenberg ran 5th, both cars ran in the points. one if not both qualify top 10 if they don't miss friday's running etc etc

they should be better on the more power hungry tracks than red bull (no great surprise they get their best are on the circuits with the effects of power deficit minimised and their performance in slow corners important, watch out for singapore i suppose)

so you'd expect more points to accrue steadily in the second half of the season, starting at Spa where they should go well

i'd run it. fwiw, which is not much.

Should have would have etc, all well and good and yes I saw the race so know where Hulk and Perez were running at the time of incidents.

That being said the front wing just crumbled for Hulkenberg, no real reason why as yet?

And whether they should or could have both scored points or not before incidents, fact is that this is another race down that they can't score points?

As I said, they were 92 to close before today and 94 after today with one less event and 0 points added, so one of those has to be an incorrect line.....?

I think it's fairly well understood now (at least within F1 circles) that the serrations on the kerb were causing severe structural problems due to the natural frequency of the car (as predicated by me after FP1  ) Force India had two issues (Sergio Perez suspension failure in FP1 & Nico Hulkenberg front wing failure in the race), and Ferrari also suffered (Kimi Raikkonen front wing failure in FP1). It's track dependent and shouldn't be an issue in the remaining races.

The simulations show that if the Force India's didn't retire from that race, the most likely result would have been Nico would have finishing 4th, and Sergio 5th.

Yes - if you reverse engineer it then Force India's quote was too low before this race.

Edit:  Sporting Index estimates are a constantly moving target, so every historical quote will be "wrong"

As for the edit...

I understand that completely we could look back every weekend and say something was incorrect - however that would be on a good weekend for a team/person/whatever the sport would be.

It's only that it's the worst possible weekend for the team that one has to be wrong in this case.

You are correct of course.  But the million dollar question is which quote is wrong

So what you are saying is you don't know the answer to that either

In summary yes   10 races to go.  Will they score 5 points a race for rest of the season? - I'd probably say yes.  They look best placed to mop up points behind Merc/Williams/Ferrari.  I'd say it's actually more about what Red Bull/McLaren do than what Force India do.  if Red Bull/McLaren don't improve on high speed circuits (which they will struggle to do with this engine token business) then I can see Force India getting over 100 points with a bit to spare.

Just my opinion of course

See above 

[MattyHollis]

Sooooo are you recommending we buy the current line again then based on the 150 prediction?!

[Peter-27]

Sooooo are you recommending we buy the current line again then based on the 150 prediction?!

I wouldn't personally, because a £20 spread is the maximum I'm willing to go to with my bank balance  . However, I would recommend that someone who is not yet on this bet should do it now, even at the current 98 price.

[MattyHollis]

Sooooo are you recommending we buy the current line again then based on the 150 prediction?!

I wouldn't personally, because a £20 spread is the maximum I'm willing to go to with my bank balance  . However, I would recommend that someone who is not yet on this bet should do it now, even at the current 98 price.

Fair enough.

[BigAdz]

Free bet for those that can with Slybet today in the first.

Money back up to £25 if your horse loses.



Quite like Lucky Beggar in the sprint at 4.20.

Feels like a poor race compared to those he has been racing in recently and he has dropped to a nice mark. 5f seems to be his best trip.

Last couple of races he has been slowly away, which I am hoping has been by design, as most of his best efforts have come when he has lead.

Today, on ideal good to soft going, he has the plum draw against the rail, and hopefully he can be up there from the start and outclass this lot.

I'm expecting the danger is next to him in Perfect Muse, who should run better now the Clive Cox stable are going a bit better, and a big turn round at the weights with the fav.


Lucky Beggar £10 ew Billy.

Perfect Muse £5 ew Choral

[Doobs]

I am going to give Goodwood a miss today on TfT.  The handicaps could easily go to 15 runners and I'd like to see the ground.  Might try and get something up for tomorrow.  

[TightEnd]

Free bet for those that can with Slybet today in the first.

Money back up to £25 if your horse loses.



Quite like Lucky Beggar in the sprint at 4.20.

Feels like a poor race compared to those he has been racing in recently and he has dropped to a nice mark. 5f seems to be his best trip.

Last couple of races he has been slowly away, which I am hoping has been by design, as most of his best efforts have come when he has lead.

Today, on ideal good to soft going, he has the plum draw against the rail, and hopefully he can be up there from the start and outclass this lot.

I'm expecting the danger is next to him in Perfect Muse, who should run better now the Clive Cox stable are going a bit better, and a big turn round at the weights with the fav.


Lucky Beggar £10 ew Billy.

Perfect Muse £5 ew Choral

by far the best prices on both are sportingbet

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/16:20/winner

but we have no money on there

going to leave it half an hour to see if tikay comes on. if not will go to other places

[Doobs]

Free bet for those that can with Slybet today in the first.

Money back up to £25 if your horse loses.



Quite like Lucky Beggar in the sprint at 4.20.

Feels like a poor race compared to those he has been racing in recently and he has dropped to a nice mark. 5f seems to be his best trip.

Last couple of races he has been slowly away, which I am hoping has been by design, as most of his best efforts have come when he has lead.

Today, on ideal good to soft going, he has the plum draw against the rail, and hopefully he can be up there from the start and outclass this lot.

I'm expecting the danger is next to him in Perfect Muse, who should run better now the Clive Cox stable are going a bit better, and a big turn round at the weights with the fav.


Lucky Beggar £10 ew Billy.

Perfect Muse £5 ew Choral

by far the best prices on both are sportingbet

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/16:20/winner

but we have no money on there

going to leave it half an hour to see if tikay comes on. if not will go to other places

That 4.20 is very weird.  They are well above Betfair on a couple of horses, so it looks like something wrong with the entire book.  I assume there is a good chance of a palp if you take it.  Though I guess at these stakes you might be fine.

Edit 12/1 gone already.  Now 10/1 which is still better than Betfair.

[BigAdz]

Sorry. I didn't realise anyone had a working account with them.

Even got the mother's account closed after two 5 quid bets. What a shower they are.

[TightEnd]

Your bet has now been placed
Single

Perfect Muse10/14:20 Goodwood - 28/07/2015
Each Way
Stake £10.00
Estimated Return:£72.50
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Return: £72.5

28 Jul 2015 - 4:20 Goodwood - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Lucky Beggar @ 8/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
120.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001378/F
Total Stake : £20.00