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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16556782 times)
sonour
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« Reply #104400 on: July 28, 2015, 10:58:12 PM »

dung, a bit like the formula one spread bets with a third party placing them, could we have a small piece of your watford action please?

couple of pounds a point, no more than that?



Sure Tighty.  I have 200 a point.  Fred can have up to 30.  (Suggest at least 10
To make it worthwhile)

Can you explain what this is to me please, clueless here.

We are buying Watford total season points at 35.5 for £10 per point. If the get 40 points we win 4.5 x £10 = £45. If they get 30 points we lose 5.5 x £10 = £55. This is with a spread betting firm,Sporting Index, SPIN.
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« Reply #104401 on: July 29, 2015, 01:18:52 AM »

No view on the horses involved but this looks a good spot for someone to suggest some each way bets tomorrow.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-07-29-goodwood/14:35/winner

Highland Reel is the drifting 9/4 fav AOB has pulled 3 horses out this week from Goodwood which indicates a possible/probable issue with the yard.

The fact this is still running can be taken either way but it is hard to view it as being more likely to be a positive.

The bottom four probably outclassed, leaves five to choose from with the 3 places and quarter odds available and the fav having a possibility of bombing out.


Cue the fav hacking up

fred cant get 1/4 for the EW with any of the 3 bookies offering it so taking the 1/5 would be losing value

only horse that anyone can get that is best price with a bookie offering 1/4 for ew is scottish 9.0 with everyday but 1 on a leap year

I agree with Horsey's thinking here and fred can get on with beteveryday if it needs to.

The sussex is obviously a great each way race too.  There are only 8 now, so will be a wating job, but Night of Thunder and Arod each way look obvious bets on a tricky course with an odds on favourite.

As an aside, it is pretty sad that you worry about withdrawals in a race as valuable of this, with prize money down to 8th on good ground, but you do.

There really shouldn't be withdrawals, but better wait until 2.   Suggest anything above 5/1 night of thunder is going to be good if you get quarter first 3, and anything above 7/1 is still likely to be good on Arod.  Suggest 20 e/w both. 

The 15.45 also looks excellent.  Washington DC has pulled out, but with 10 left an odds on favourite and 2 no hopers, we should definitely bet.

Lathom and Rouleau both seem like good types.  Lathom was well beaten at Ascot, but came back and one a big sales race.  Rouleau looks progressive.  I don't think we need to wait all day, as beteveryday normally matches the best prices at 10.  Suggest 20 each way on those 2 as well.  I think anything above 7/1 on either is bound to be good at quarter odds 3 places.

You want a proper stayer in the 2.00 as it is an ultra long distance.  I think Teak fits the bill and would be happy with 12/1 and 4 places.  Maybe 10 e/w here as it isn't so good as the races already mentioned. I am also looking at Taws.  I think you can ignore her last race as she was racing against horses that would be 10 pounds higher in a handicap.  I want to be a bit greedy here, and maybe we can see if anyone goes 18/1 in the morning (currently 20 on betfair and the best price is only 16/1).  I guess I'll take the 16/1 if it starts going.

The 16.55 could be nice too with 16 runners, but I am not wasting time on it when we could easily lose a couple. 

The 17.25 looks sure to be nice but I am fading.

All together a much better day for betting than day 1.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
aaron1867
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« Reply #104402 on: July 29, 2015, 07:01:31 AM »

Marco Matias, just signed for Wednesday for over £1m from Nacional after scoring 20 from 36 in the Portugal top flight.

66-1 top goalscorer in the Championship.

Might be a bet there, but probably see (like myself) Wednesday as a very unknown quantity for the Championship season
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TightEnd
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« Reply #104403 on: July 29, 2015, 09:12:56 AM »

the 3.45

only bet365 and sky go 1/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/15:45/winner

so unable to do Lathom and Rouleau unless we want to take 1/5


same for the sussex 1/4 only in 2 spots neither of which we can use for arod and night of thunder

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/15:10/winner


the 2.00 is more feasible for us

Teak we can get 5 places 1/4

29 Jul 2015 - 2:00 Goodwood - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Teak @ 12/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
170.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001380/F
Total Stake : £20.00


Taws still only 16-1, will watch for 18-1
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TightEnd
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« Reply #104404 on: July 29, 2015, 09:15:31 AM »

Just two bets completed yesterday, both losers at Goodwood lucky beggar and perfect muse for -£30

month to date -£15.33

outstanding bets £2025.65

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=27
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« Reply #104405 on: July 29, 2015, 09:22:30 AM »

the 3.45

only bet365 and sky go 1/4

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/15:45/winner

so unable to do Lathom and Rouleau unless we want to take 1/5


same for the sussex 1/4 only in 2 spots neither of which we can use for arod and night of thunder

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/goodwood/15:10/winner


the 2.00 is more feasible for us

Teak we can get 5 places 1/4

29 Jul 2015 - 2:00 Goodwood - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Teak @ 12/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
170.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001380/F
Total Stake : £20.00


Taws still only 16-1, will watch for 18-1

I'd just take the 16/1.  Bf now shorter and I didn't realise hills were 5 places. 

10 e/w is fine.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #104406 on: July 29, 2015, 09:24:13 AM »

29 Jul 2015 - 2:00 Goodwood - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Taws @ 16/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
220.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001381/F
Total Stake : £20.00
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Tal
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« Reply #104407 on: July 29, 2015, 09:30:58 AM »

Villa could have Berbatov and Adebayor up front.

Is there a line on total yards run?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #104408 on: July 29, 2015, 10:17:18 AM »

Interesting news from the cricket

Rogers attended a supporters function last night. shaun marsh looks as if he is playing.

Wood is struggling with an injury, Finn looks as if he is playing
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horseplayer
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« Reply #104409 on: July 29, 2015, 10:23:13 AM »

Villa could have Berbatov and Adebayor up front.

Is there a line on total yards run?

100% i have posted this before but it never usually stops me

Berba is surprisingly high in the "total ground covered" stats or at least was at Spurs and Man Utd.
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« Reply #104410 on: July 29, 2015, 10:28:42 AM »

I like Taws as another selection in the G 2.00 as well 16-1 for £10ew with both the 5 places firms.  Fillies and 4yos do well in the race, its better to have run in the Ascot distance handicap than not and she was 2nd in that race and only went up 2lbs.  A wide draw is oddly not a disadvantage in today's race, presumably as it makes it easier to settle the horses.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #104411 on: July 29, 2015, 10:32:10 AM »

Villa could have Berbatov and Adebayor up front.

Is there a line on total yards run?

100% i have posted this before but it never usually stops me

Berba is surprisingly high in the "total ground covered" stats or at least was at Spurs and Man Utd.

I think it's his languid running style that gives the impression of laziness.  Even if the stats say otherwise I still invision Berba at the edge of the box, Adebayor at the far post, Grealish crosses it into the penalty spot and Berba and Ade look at each other, put hands on hips and shrug!
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TightEnd
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« Reply #104412 on: July 29, 2015, 10:35:14 AM »

29 Jul 2015 - 2:00 Goodwood - Win

Best Odds Guaranteed!
Tip It

Taws @ 16/1  EW @ 1/4 1-5

Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £
220.00
Transaction Reference:
O/0457483/0001381/F
Total Stake : £20.00

already on Taws
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Tal
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« Reply #104413 on: July 29, 2015, 10:36:14 AM »

Villa could have Berbatov and Adebayor up front.

Is there a line on total yards run?

100% i have posted this before but it never usually stops me

Berba is surprisingly high in the "total ground covered" stats or at least was at Spurs and Man Utd.

He was a proper player at spurs. Loved him to bits and sorry to see him go.

But I still believe if he had pockets in his shorts he'd use them.

Sun's out in Brummagem, by the way.
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« Reply #104414 on: July 29, 2015, 10:44:16 AM »

Said it before

watched a lot of Spurs in that period and he often dictated the game from the holding midfield position and then was in the box to finish the move.

Hard to do that regularly if you dont put the yards in,
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