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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13334023 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #104655 on: August 01, 2015, 11:43:15 AM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh? 


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Nope, I don't think you make them up.

But the last two winners of the Stewards' Cup were drawn 22 and 26. Rex Imperator (26) beat runners drawn 25 and 28.

The previous year Hawkeyethenoo was drawn 4.

Not sure how those results point to a middle draw being best?

In the two years before that racing in the centre group was fine; that followed work by 'earthquake machine' to de-compact the ground up either rail.

Since then, the ground has become compacted again through usage and now it's best to race on either side again imo. I wouldn't want to be down the middle.

Draw stats are largely misleading.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 11:46:01 AM by Chompy » Logged

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tikay
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« Reply #104656 on: August 01, 2015, 11:50:00 AM »



I just withdrew £350 from BWin, & they charged me a £1.50 fee.

Is that normal procedure, do other Firms do the same?

I don't withdraw very often, just leave it there for future use, but it seems a bit of a cheek to charge to withdraw.
t
Not as annoying as getting your account closed with them.  I would happily pay a £50 deposit and withdraw fee to do business with them.  The withdraw fee always just made me leave my balance in there to iron them out even more.  I think it is a good idea tbh as a firm as punters generally deposit and withdraw too often for no real reason which costs the firms a lot of money over a year which they obviously have to add to the juice they put into their prices to make it pay.

I get your point, yes. I've never been in the habit of depositing & withdrawing after or before every bet, I just cba, but I know many do. After a big betting event, the traffic on a bookmaker's site soars, as people all log on - within minutes - to withdraw. The peak log-ins immediately AFTER, say, a Grand National dwarfs the pre-event traffic. (Pre-event it is spread far wider of course).

I've been thinking about my stance on "second" accounts with bookmakers. I've never ever done it, either in Sports Betting or Poker. Fred is simply running out of Accounts, & relying on the goodwill of others now.  I feel a little uncomfortable at their generosity, but opening multi-accounts still does not sit quite right with me. If I really felt Fred had several years life left in it, I might have to re-consider that I suppose.  

I'm not taking a moral stance on this, & I get why pros do it, & I don't have an issue with it. I'd just feel wrong doing so, but I'm just recreational.  

Always decisions to make. Good job I'm not a ditherer
« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 11:51:57 AM by tikay » Logged

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Doobs
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« Reply #104657 on: August 01, 2015, 11:52:13 AM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh? 


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Nope, I don't think you make them up.

But the last two winners of the Stewards' Cup were drawn 22 and 26. Rex Imperator (26) beat runners drawn 25 and 28.

The previous year Hawkeyethenoo was drawn 4.

Not sure how those results point to a middle draw being best?

In the two years before that racing in the centre group was fine; that followed work by 'earthquake machine' to de-compact the ground up either rail.

Since then, the ground has become compacted again through usage and now it's best to race on either side again imo. I wouldn't want to be down the middle.

Draw stats are largely misleading.

Is it ok if I put Mubtaghaa up in the first then?  Drawn in the middle.  Going to be irritated if it wins and I dint out it up.  It won one of those big special races last year with loads of good horses behind, but has been mediocre this year. Just think if it gets close to last year's form it should go close.  Given its age, more likely to be unexposed than most and has won in a big field luckfest previously.

25/1 5 places at lots of bookies.  Suggest 10 e/w.
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arbboy
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« Reply #104658 on: August 01, 2015, 11:52:30 AM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?
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doubleup
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« Reply #104659 on: August 01, 2015, 12:05:08 PM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?

because that's as far back as flatstats goes.  I primarily base my view on placed horses and you have reasonable samples of these in large handicaps but anyway I can't be bothered with snide comments so I'll not bother anymore.

and Chompy last year's winner wasn't drawn 22/24 there were non runners, so its effective draw was 18/24.

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« Reply #104660 on: August 01, 2015, 12:06:52 PM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?

because that's as far back as flatstats goes.  I primarily base my view on placed horses and you have reasonable samples of these in large handicaps but anyway I can't be bothered with snide comments so I'll not bother anymore.

and Chompy last year's winner wasn't drawn 22/24 there were non runners, so its effective draw was 18/24.



Edit.  Please don't stop posting.  Both yours and chompy's contributions were interesting. 
« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 12:17:08 PM by Doobs » Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
tikay
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« Reply #104661 on: August 01, 2015, 12:10:49 PM »

I have friends who play Roller Derby in UK, US and Germany. Great sport! Don't dis it! You have to be tough to play that sport as you get the crap kicked out of you.

I will put some tips up if I find a market for the upcoming World playoffs and championships!

http://wftda.com/tournaments/2015

Ha, please do. Seriously, stick something up & we'll have an interest.

Don't recall you on here before, & we have a recruitment drive in progress, so you get a free pass for the first one.

Don't expect me to watch it though. No way. Wink

 Click to see full-size image.


« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 12:12:26 PM by tikay » Logged

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arbboy
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« Reply #104662 on: August 01, 2015, 12:11:07 PM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?

because that's as far back as flatstats goes.  I primarily base my view on placed horses and you have reasonable samples of these in large handicaps but anyway I can't be bothered with snide comments so I'll not bother anymore.

and Chompy last year's winner wasn't drawn 22/24 there were non runners, so its effective draw was 18/24.



It wasn't a dig.  Just a genuine question.  Totally reasonable answer if the stats only go that far back.
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doubleup
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« Reply #104663 on: August 01, 2015, 12:16:47 PM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?

because that's as far back as flatstats goes.  I primarily base my view on placed horses and you have reasonable samples of these in large handicaps but anyway I can't be bothered with snide comments so I'll not bother anymore.

and Chompy last year's winner wasn't drawn 22/24 there were non runners, so its effective draw was 18/24.



It wasn't a dig.  Just a genuine question.  Totally reasonable answer if the stats only go that far back.

It was a dig - implication that I was somehow being selective to back up my argument. 

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arbboy
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« Reply #104664 on: August 01, 2015, 12:19:30 PM »

Middle-ish draw is the one you wouldn't want in the Stewards' Cup imo. Either rail traditionally best here, ground dependant, and the high numbers all went first in the draw for stall positions the other day.


Chompy that simply isn't correct.  Do you think I just make up stats for a laugh?  


Here are the stats for the last 9 years for the cup and the sprint - overall its clearly best to have a middle draw if the objective is to get placed and occasionally win.

other stats in post below



Sample size seems very small.  Just out of interest why have you just selected exactly the last 9 years for your sample?  Why not the last 30 years?

because that's as far back as flatstats goes.  I primarily base my view on placed horses and you have reasonable samples of these in large handicaps but anyway I can't be bothered with snide comments so I'll not bother anymore.

and Chompy last year's winner wasn't drawn 22/24 there were non runners, so its effective draw was 18/24.



It wasn't a dig.  Just a genuine question.  Totally reasonable answer if the stats only go that far back.

It was a dig - implication that I was somehow being selective to back up my argument.  



I just like to swim against the tide and think the value in spots like this with tiny sample sizes is to oppose these 'trends' across all sports (not just horse racing) which are nothing more than random.  Each to their own. 

Just for balance the Racing Post topdraw data for the two races whilst very slightly favouring a middle draw in the two races conclude that there is 'no definite bias' from their 53 rating for both races.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2015, 12:41:41 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #104665 on: August 01, 2015, 12:31:56 PM »

Thanks to Doobs, Doubleup and co for putting up some Goodwood stuff. It's been a fun little sweat without having to open up clean accounts or run around between betting shops all day long.
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Doobs
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« Reply #104666 on: August 01, 2015, 01:24:12 PM »

I don't put up many hills mobile bets anymore, but Legatissimo at 2/1 in the Nassau seems made for them.  Suggest we do £25 on that on the dog.  Class horse in the field and seems sure to be thereabouts.  Guess we don't need to worry about the draw. 
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Chompy
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« Reply #104667 on: August 01, 2015, 01:24:26 PM »

I didn't read it as arbboy having a dig, and hope you don't think I was either. All tips can and should be discussed, nobody is beyond reproach.

I've never been a fan of draw stats, as there are too many variables, non-runners being one of them.

Stall positioning, including where the break(s) in the stalls comes, ground, rail positioning, field splits (previous races and potential for today's race), and pace all make a difference.

Looking at numbers on a sheet doesn't tell you anything re: the above. It was Bernie Ford who helped set up topdraw and he'd be the first to admit his actual knowledge of any of those factors was limited.
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« Reply #104668 on: August 01, 2015, 01:41:04 PM »

I don't put up many hills mobile bets anymore, but Legatissimo at 2/1 in the Nassau seems made for them.  Suggest we do £25 on that on the dog.  Class horse in the field and seems sure to be thereabouts.  Guess we don't need to worry about the draw. 

this is on

£25 at 2-1 money back as fb if 2nd

coincidentally, it is the most backed horse on the WH "hottest picks" today
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« Reply #104669 on: August 01, 2015, 01:52:29 PM »

I don't put up many hills mobile bets anymore, but Legatissimo at 2/1 in the Nassau seems made for them.  Suggest we do £25 on that on the dog.  Class horse in the field and seems sure to be thereabouts.  Guess we don't need to worry about the draw. 

this is on

£25 at 2-1 money back as fb if 2nd

coincidentally, it is the most backed horse on the WH "hottest picks" today

Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.  Mubtaghaa in the first looks friendless, so guess he'd be top of the coolest picks today.  Can we do a tenner each way at 25/1 5 places?  My last post hasn't led to a huge timber so we still have a lot of bookie choice.  Guess it was missed in the minor hoohah. 

Please don't make me have to spell that horse again!
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