Tips for Tikay

[nellberg]

Great thread thx to all who make it work keep it up

^^^This.

As someone who is a recent recruit to the sports betting game, this thread has been invaluable to me and has allowed me to become a competent punter at a much more accelerated rate than the average joe.

The rate of my ice-cream bets has gone way down as I've taken on board the shrewd advice offered by the pros on here.

I can't thank you enough and long may it continue.

Yep, very much echo this. tips are very good, but just as valuable is the thought processes involved, how the final choice is narrowed down, value etc. With the discussion involved I think we all keep learning, and getting better as a result. Many thanks

[arbboy]

5.74% is some going with so many different views e.t.c

Well done all

Can I ask what is a good ROI % on sports betting, what would the successful punters like Arbboy, Dubai and Chompy hope to see over a large sample size in terms of %?

My personal roi is very very low because i work on a very high volume high turnover model for various reasons.  The main one is it stops me having to pay the premium charge on betfair and keeps me at or close to 2% commission.  I don't see the point in refusing taking 2.05 about a flip if i can do it 50/100 times a week just to protect an ROI figure which means nothing but vanity in reality..  It is all about cash turnover for me.  ROI doesn't really interest me.  You can't pay your bills and buy cars with ROI.  I could have an ROI of 50% a year if i only choose to bet on my 10 strongest bets of the year but i might only make £15k a year on those bets.  This would cause me to turn down probably 5000 other cash generating bets though over the year which would reduce my roi but make me more bottom line cash.

Personally i never understand why pro punters worry about ROI.  What i will say is if i post a bet on tft it will be in my strongest 5% of bets generally with the biggest long term ROI/edge.  I don't bother to post the other 'thin edges' i utilise every day in the other 95% of bets because i appreciate the vast majority of readers don't operate a high volume/low margin model like i do so they would be of little use to most readers.  I probably lay between 75 and 100 (as high as 150 maybe on a Friday/Saturday when the tv dogs are on and the volume levels from recs are higher) dogs a day on average on bf.

[SuperJez]

Arbboy you ever consider providing exchange bet tips for money?  Like a paid tipping service but avoiding all the classic bookies (because unless you are a multi accounter you cannot get on of course).

I am sceptical of 99.9% of tipsters but I would pay for your exchange bet tips.

[arbboy]

Arbboy you ever consider providing exchange bet tips for money?  Like a paid tipping service but avoiding all the classic bookies (because unless you are a multi accounter you cannot get on of course).

I am sceptical of 99.9% of tipsters but I would pay for your exchange bet tips.

No for various reasons.

1) I couldn't be arsed dealing with the shit Neil and Joe have had to deal with from clueless punters when they have a tiny short term downswing.

2) The vast majority of my dog lays are done within 60 seconds of the off on a race as the bf market for the vast majority of dog races isn't liquid until a minute or two before the race is practically it would be impossible to tell you what i am laying because it is all price dependent and i don't know myself what i am backing/laying until the market is formed.  Also the volumes for getting on any dog race which is not on TV is very difficult.  I struggle to get on myself to full limits for the vast majority of BAGS races at the right price never mind sell the info for other exchange users to use.  For example i have just tried to lay the 2/1 fav in the 408 at hove to lose a grand and only got £125 matched a minute ago.  £4k was matched on the race in total.  I would say 50% of my turnover is done within 30 seconds of the hare running.

It would be more workable on the rpgtv races in the evening but again the same problems would happen regarding timing issues.

3) I choose to become a pro punter to have a better lifestyle choice and not answer to people therefore selling tips etc would feel like running a business to me and i have never been remotely motivated to do it even though it probably costs me money.  In a similar sense i can count the number of times i have got involved in staking on one hand to any decent level and again it is just too business and work like monitoring it.  If i wanted all that hassle i would just get a senior trading job.  I started working for myself to get away from admin etc as much as possible.

4) In 2005 i used to run a private members only arb advisory service with certain select big arbers who were willing to pay for my information.  I used to collect every football coupon from every high st shop and review them in detail for possible arbs.  ht/ft/correct scores etc etc.  It was very easy to get on then in shops.  This service was fine back then as i was dealing with other fellow pros who were happy to pay me well to do the leg work for them.  There were no downswings as all i was doing was suggesting arb opportunities so you never had to deal with losers not being able to cope with downswings.  I was obviously having to do this work myself anyway to find arbs so sending a daily email wasn't that much of a hassle and it worked well for a year or so until i moved to Malta and/or the shop arbing scene was starting to move on from it's glory period.

Never say never though because everyone/thing has a price and i might be tempted if the right offer came along but it is not something i think about a lot.  I would rather swop different skill sets/info with other pros without fees but the hard bit is finding suitably skilled pros who's info is worth as much as yours.

[arbboy]

Bald fred were/are price boosting Watford to go down at evens between 5-6pm today in shops when i was in one this morning.  Not sure if they offer this online as well.  Max £100.  Well worth taking the £100 is it is online for fred.  I like them at 5/6 to go down tbh.  Anyone near a bald shop between 5-6pm obviously worth hoovering it up.

[McGlashan]

Bald fred were/are price boosting Watford to go down at evens between 5-6pm today in shops when i was in one this morning.  Not sure if they offer this online as well.  Max £100.  Well worth taking the £100 is it is online for fred.  I like them at 5/6 to go down tbh.  Anyone near a bald shop between 5-6pm obviously worth hoovering it up.

Cheers.

[hector62]

Evening Tighty.

I have given the reasons twice before for backing Ben Currie to score a try anytime. They still stand and we get 11/4. Whilst playing away at Leeds is not the ideal fixture, Warrington have beaten them twice this season and they have just recruited an Australian scrum half, which coupled with Leed's vulnerability to pace at the breakdown makes the bet a goer.

£15 Ben Currie to score a try @ 11/4 with Betfred.

[TightEnd]

Evening Tighty.

I have given the reasons twice before for backing Ben Currie to score a try anytime. They still stand and we get 11/4. Whilst playing away at Leeds is not the ideal fixture, Warrington have beaten them twice this season and they have just recruited an Australian scrum half, which coupled with Leed's vulnerability to pace at the breakdown makes the bet a goer.

£15 Ben Currie to score a try @ 11/4 with Betfred.

betfair sportsbook

 Singles
Odds Stake
Leeds v Warrington

    11/4
    £15
    £56.25
    Ben Currie
    Anytime Tryscorer

    Bet Ref: O/0140260/0000160

[stumpythefish]

Peters retires for Northants after injury you can mark it down as a loser rob newton hopefully back in a week and gives us a sweat for rest of season

[Tal]

100% book in an nfl submarket

Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?

Yes 9/4 (Billy Mountains)
No 4/9 (TV's Tony Kendall)

The line on season wins is 8.5 (20/21 over and Evs under). Last season,  the Bills made 9-7 with a much less tolerable offense in a less competitive AFC. The division is nasty but far from insurmountable, as the Jets continue to hover by the self destruct button and Miami are no better on paper at least than Buffalo, still having the least effective home bias in footbawl. The Pats will do what the Pats do, but 9-7 may well be enough this season, as the best teams (New England and Denver) aren't as far ahead and the weaker teams (Jacksonville, Oakland) are more competitive.

Bias or no bias, Buffalo are in the top ten teams in the AFC. The question is how good will the teams finishing second in their division be? Only two of four can progress. The Colts should dominate their division and I can't see Houston getting 10 wins this time around. In the West, The Chargers look like a busted flush at the moment, rather than a franchise making progress. Denver will lose games but should win their division.

The danger may again be in the North, where three teams may finish with 8-8 or better. I am personally keen on the Bengals, but I look around the conference and do question whether Buffalo might be the team that makes the playoffs this year.

At 9/4, does anyone fancy being a Bills fan?

[Tal]

FWIW, interested in views rather than formally recommending. Lots of bets to be had and plenty at bigger prices, I am sure, but seems only fair to get the egg shaped, adequately inflated ball rolling.

[MattyHollis]

FWIW, interested in views rather than formally recommending. Lots of bets to be had and plenty at bigger prices, I am sure, but seems only fair to get the egg shaped, adequately inflated ball rolling.

IMO I still think you are 3rd best in the division, as I said in the other thread I think Miami have a squad to potentially win the division, however I still think a Pats team that is weaker than last year, and will be missing Brady early on will still have enough over the course of the season to challenge. Just my opinion, shady mccoy could carry the team all on his own though tbh.

[exstream]

ty chompy

[Chompy]

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[arbboy]

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Was waiting for Jimmy to appear.  Never went bigger than evens pre race or in running!  Too good.