Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Sunderland are 7/4 today to beat Norwich at home (technically their easiest game of the season).  Being 7/4 at home makes Norwich on paper quite a substantially better team than Sunderland.  Norwich are the shortest priced team to go down.  One of the prices has to be massively wrong.

I have no view on the game, or value, & I note Tighty's comment that Leicester were flattered by the 4-2 score last week.

I fancy, however, that there is a drinking culture problem at Sunderland FC, & the Manager does not fully have the dressing room. They will get found out in the EPL, & I think I'd be with Norwich to do the better of the two this year. 

[TightEnd]

think Sunderland are a very big price indeed today

Alex Neil has once again this week bemoaned that he cannot attract players to come to Norwich. Apart from Robbie Brady at left back this side is the side that won the Championship play-offs.

the huge difference between the two divisions is really evident in two areas

a) taking your chances. your strikers can score 1 in 3 chances in the championship and you'll still win games. Last week Grabban, a good goalscorer in league 1 and the championship over several seasons, missed a sitter early on which would have made all the difference

b) defensive solidity. if your back 5 make a mistake in the championship, you might not get punished. in the top league even the worst sides make you pay

You have to assume that Sunderland are a bit more organised this week than last, and if so 7/4 is a big price

I think Norwich are in for a very long season indeed. unlike (i think) watford and bournemouth i don't think they have the goals in them to be competitive

[Chompy]

Ripon tomorrow is soft ground, and recently rained-on soft ground; my favourite kind of soft ground.

There should be a low bias in the big sprints and we have to play the 3.00 each-way with Betfair Clownbook, as they're paying five places.

The field will split here and it's possible we're looking at five places from around 12 or 13 down our side of the course if things work out as expected.

We want something drawn low, that likes soft ground, and ideally likes Ripon.

£25EW Right Touch 7-1
£20EW The Hooded Claw 14-1

They've completely ducked Fast Shot, so back that at 22-1 with Joke please.

£15EW Fast Shit 22-1

I enjoy this sort of analysis from our resident pros almost more than anything else on Fred, fingers crossed our cunning plan comes together this afternoon. How can we lose?

Can you explain the what & why of this, please? What difference does it make as to how a racehorse acts on it?


recently rained-on soft ground; my favourite kind of soft ground.

Is there a "wrong kind of rain", too?

Sixteen runners left in the Consolation. Odds-on another one comes out to screw the each-way terms and I'd have a shortlist of one as to who it's gonna be.

And we're down to 15 for the big race. Obv. None of the big firms are still offering four places. Poor form.

Re: soft ground, there are defo different types. Rained-on watered ground, which we get at 90% of Haydock meetings it seems, leads to loose, false ground, which can throw up weird results.

Drying soft ground, which can get sticky or be soft underneath with a crust on top, also throws up weird results.

Ripon today should be proper soft ground that will suit soft-ground horses. But soft-ground horses don't always seem to want sticky ground. Or loose, watered ground.

Also, the idea that Southwell specialists want soft ground is utter bullshit. Fibresand specialists are often way better on that surface than turf, but some want it fast on grass, others slow. Dave Bellingham used to swear by backing one-paced turf horses on Fibresand. You don't need one that quickens, just something that can keep up one speed through a race. Wish they'd shut the gaff down tbh.

Similarly, there are at least as many Polytrack specialists that want dig on turf as want it fast.

Basically, don't ever go nuts on soft ground imo.

[Chompy]

Only 14 left in the biggie at Ripon but still showing as 1/4 five places on Lolbrokes site. With BOG.

Whether they'll honour it or claim it as an each-way stips plopable is the question.

[DungBeetle]

Any thoughts on the "Going For Goals" market here:

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/football/domestic-long-term-markets/group_a.b388b209-a85b-401f-bc0e-69503fbd3c54/premier-league-specials-2015-16

460 seems too high as a selling price to me?

2010/11 : 350 (9.2pw) 7-1 highest result for 50pts
2011/12 : 510 (13.4pw) 8-2 highest result for 100pts
2012/13 : 470 (12.4pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts
2013/14 : 455 (12.0pw) 7-0 highest result for 50pts
2014/15 : 350 (9.2pw) 8-0 highest result for 100pts


Anyone any further thoughts on the 460-480 line that Peter mentioned?

After week 1 worth 5 points and the league imo being tighter than ever, is there much downside on a sell?

Well, I'm planning a £20 spread bet based on what I've heard so far. Can always cash out for a small loss should it start to look a bit iffy.

Your bid offer on this is £400 alone!  Be careful.

[doubleup]

Only 14 left in the biggie at Ripon but still showing as 1/4 five places on Lolbrokes site. With BOG.

Whether they'll honour it or claim it as an each-way stips plopable is the question.

They've clearly reformed the market so I would assume they know what they are doing.

[ChipRich]

Not posted much lately but....

Anyone have any thoughts on Fulham Home to Brighton?  Anything I'm missing?

Fulham 2.94 , Brighton 2.72

I can't be having Brighton being faves at Fulham tbh although admittedly may be too early in season to say.

Brighton have only won 2 away from home in 2015 and I just don't rate Chris Hughton as a manager.

They beat a fairly poor Forest team 1-0 on opening day but wernt too special.
Fulham, unlucky not to come away with a win at Cardiff after late worldy from Noone and read that Fulham dominated for periods even though stats may not show that.

Expecting Fulham to be a much better outfit this season and look to have a fairly settled Manager/squad and even made 5 changes midweek in the cup without it looking too under-strength.
Very much different to the circus they had at the start of last season which looked like they might go down at one point!

Kit symons has came out and said he wants to make Craven Cottage a fortress and will have them fired up I'd hope!

Recommend £30-40? Unless any big disagreements.

[MattyHollis]

I have earned a couple of free spread bets with spreadex which need to be used by the end of next week. Anybody any thoughts on which market is best to place them on and anybody any suggestions? Outside of football I don't really have much insight into any of the other options....

I have two free bets and can use them as each of the following :

Football:                     £100 Supremacy spread bet on any live match
Horse racing:              £100 Winning Favourites spread bet
Tennis:                       £100 Total Sets spread bet on any live match
Rugby League/Union:   £50 Total Tries bet on any live match
Golf:                           £20 72-hole Matchbet on any tournament  
Cricket:                       £10 'First 15 Overs Runs' spread bet on any live one day game or £10 'Fall of Next Wicket' spread bet on any Test match

Thanks

[TightEnd]

Not posted much lately but....

Anyone have any thoughts on Fulham Home to Brighton?  Anything I'm missing?

Fulham 2.94 , Brighton 2.72

I can't be having Brighton being faves at Fulham tbh although admittedly may be too early in season to say.

Brighton have only won 2 away from home in 2015 and I just don't rate Chris Hughton as a manager.

They beat a fairly poor Forest team 1-0 on opening day but wernt too special.
Fulham, unlucky not to come away with a win at Cardiff after late worldy from Noone and read that Fulham dominated for periods even though stats may not show that.

Expecting Fulham to be a much better outfit this season and look to have a fairly settled Manager/squad and even made 5 changes midweek in the cup without it looking too under-strength.
Very much different to the circus they had at the start of last season which looked like they might go down at one point!

Kit symons has came out and said he wants to make Craven Cottage a fortress and will have them fired up I'd hope!

Recommend £30-40? Unless any big disagreements.

views please

[TightEnd]

jermain defoe does advanced statistics and probability. touches on the gamblers fallacy too

[arbboy]

jermain defoe does advanced statistics and probability. touches on the gamblers fallacy too

Would like to watch him play roulette with that mind set!

[Karabiner]

USPGA Golf losers taken

Players who have missed the cut already

-£4 Kjeldsen
-£20 Scott
-£20 Luiten
-£15 Martin

Unfortunately we don't seeem to have sweats in the rest of the book, but you never know

month to date +£13
forward book £3400

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=28

Let's not get too despondent.

The course yielded a 63(-9) yesterday so anyone who makes the cut is still in with a chance, we're getting six places too.

[TightEnd]

the boundaries are in a long way for canterbury's 2.30pm T20 quarter

quotes are reasonable too

plenty of big hitters on both sides



no vig at pp for anyone who can go over

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/kent-v-lancashire/total-6s

[Chompy]

Only 14 left in the biggie at Ripon but still showing as 1/4 five places on Lolbrokes site. With BOG.

Whether they'll honour it or claim it as an each-way stips plopable is the question.

They've clearly reformed the market so I would assume they know what they are doing.

Gl with that assumption.

[arbboy]

Only 14 left in the biggie at Ripon but still showing as 1/4 five places on Lolbrokes site. With BOG.

Whether they'll honour it or claim it as an each-way stips plopable is the question.

They've clearly reformed the market so I would assume they know what they are doing.

Gl with that assumption.

It is their headline advert in their main centre page advert in the RP today so they might just be sucking it up.  Have to agree with double up here.  They have reformed the market so many times with so many non runners even lolbrokes most junior lol trader would have realised the e/w terms might need changing surely if they won't holding the 5 places?  Still showing as one of their 8 rolling headline promos on the front page of their website as well.  15.30 Ripon paying 5 places with no * for T&C apply.

Just looks like yet another case of the marketing department having the final say over the days big racing promo over the head of racing who must have known this race would cut up massively with the weather over the past two days.

Getting very close to hills supreme novices chelt offer from yesteryear.  Tempted to get in the car and smash up a couple of shops if they are honouring it.