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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16390213 times)
arbboy
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« Reply #105510 on: August 16, 2015, 12:27:43 PM »

Morning all looking at the giants game win line at 8.5 think this is a great unders bet.O and D lines appear very average at best and big concerns at safety due to injuries.Manning's pass protection will be poor and can see run game struggling.Think we can only have £22 at 8/11 with laddies.

sorry need more info.

when and against who?

really reluctant to be backing pre-season NFL games, to be frank.

this will be the first game? starters unlikely to play much if at all, all about checking depth of rosters and getting to a 53 for the first regular season game

the coaches don't care about winning, we shouldn't really be having anything other than a watching brief on these

Think the bet is reg season wins over/under from his description.
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Stopsleyhatter
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« Reply #105511 on: August 16, 2015, 12:34:02 PM »

Morning all looking at the giants game win line at 8.5 think this is a great unders bet.O and D lines appear very average at best and big concerns at safety due to injuries.Manning's pass protection will be poor and can see run game struggling.Think we can only have £22 at 8/11 with laddies.

sorry need more info.

when and against who?

really reluctant to be backing pre-season NFL games, to be frank.

this will be the first game? starters unlikely to play much if at all, all about checking depth of rosters and getting to a 53 for the first regular season game

the coaches don't care about winning, we shouldn't really be having anything other than a watching brief on these
Sorry meant reg.season game wins.Put up unders on the 49ers at 7.5 a while ago but don't think it's available now.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #105512 on: August 16, 2015, 12:40:36 PM »

ok sorry

8/11 is big juice to be paying for a season over-under, is it not?

(i'll save the why giants are dark horses post, lol)
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« Reply #105513 on: August 16, 2015, 12:42:36 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?
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« Reply #105514 on: August 16, 2015, 12:46:46 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?

haha yeah i've bet them for the NFC East. Don't panic after 1 shaky preseason game! 
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« Reply #105515 on: August 16, 2015, 12:48:14 PM »

http://www.gbgb.org.uk/resultsMeeting.aspx?id=131795

All mid/wide at BV dogs this morning on the bags.  Plenty of well backed railers tailed off with no trouble.
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MattyHollis
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« Reply #105516 on: August 16, 2015, 12:52:53 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?

I have a few friends who have tried to tell me NYG could have a good year this year too. I'm having none of it though. Nothing against the team I just don't think they have it in them. Aswell as that, although it is pre season, Eli and the 1st string offence looked woeful on Friday night and actually ended up being out there for the whole first quarter and a bit, stacking up the 3 and outs.

My selection this year is the Steelers, think the D can step up and arguably have the best offensive weapons in the league  (who would you swap Bell or Brown for?) backed up by legitimate deep threats, i've actually bet them to be highest scoring team too (28/1).
« Last Edit: August 16, 2015, 12:54:36 PM by MattyHollis » Logged
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« Reply #105517 on: August 16, 2015, 12:54:12 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?

haha yeah i've bet them for the NFC East. Don't panic after 1 shaky preseason game! 

i tend to agree with this

i know there are injury problems in the short term

but if they can just get average play out of the OL then Beckham, Cruz, Jennings and co are going to give teams fits, even allowing for Eli the Interception to have his off days

the DL is very under-rated too. Jonathan Hankins is a serious serious player

decent pair of corners too

the NFC East this season is a tough one.
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« Reply #105518 on: August 16, 2015, 01:06:17 PM »

Hopefully some remembered how excited I was about montero being signed this time last year.


Woooooooosh brilliant to watch as is jonjo shelvey must be in the euros squad for me
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« Reply #105519 on: August 16, 2015, 01:21:26 PM »

Bonus payout time...

A bit of the each-way bet on Right Touch was with BFSB, who were five places. He finished fifth. Ship!
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« Reply #105520 on: August 16, 2015, 01:23:32 PM »

Hopefully some remembered how excited I was about montero being signed this time last year.


Woooooooosh brilliant to watch as is jonjo shelvey must be in the euros squad for me

Both are excellent, shelvey will be a great player, think his problems are more mental than anything else. Think their strike force is excellent aswell, annoyingly both players newcastle tracked for ages but didnt sign.

Think they will have a decent season. Their depth in wing options is great aswell, keep their strikers fit and think they will finish pretty high.
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« Reply #105521 on: August 16, 2015, 01:34:48 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?

haha yeah i've bet them for the NFC East. Don't panic after 1 shaky preseason game! 

i tend to agree with this

i know there are injury problems in the short term

but if they can just get average play out of the OL then Beckham, Cruz, Jennings and co are going to give teams fits, even allowing for Eli the Interception to have his off days

the DL is very under-rated too. Jonathan Hankins is a serious serious player

decent pair of corners too

the NFC East this season is a tough one.
Should be fun watching the Giants this year then with all the varying opinions..
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« Reply #105522 on: August 16, 2015, 01:43:20 PM »


Thanks Rich.

Almost the perfect storm yesterday, everything we did seemed to go wrong, & likely to be more red ink today on the golf. It happens.

What an astonishing performance by Spieth. The course, which looked fearsome initially, has been reduced to almost target golf, those boys hit the ball so far these days.

Surprised you never posted a photo of the Premier League table. any idea who are currently top?

Went to bed with Matsuyama in the top 6, woke up to find he dropped 3 at the 15th.  Also discovered Neil had tipped Day too, and I normally back all his stuff too.

Still sat in a restaurant overlooking Barcelona, so things not so bad.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #105523 on: August 16, 2015, 01:55:12 PM »

So me having backed the Giants to win the superbowl, then..? Bad idea?

Cheesy

Think they're a better prospect than they're being made out to be. Lots of talent, drafted and recruited sensibly, competitive division but not impossible to make the playoffs, a clutch post-season QB.

Nowhere near the best team in the NFC, but since when did that stop them?

haha yeah i've bet them for the NFC East. Don't panic after 1 shaky preseason game! 

i tend to agree with this

i know there are injury problems in the short term

but if they can just get average play out of the OL then Beckham, Cruz, Jennings and co are going to give teams fits, even allowing for Eli the Interception to have his off days

the DL is very under-rated too. Jonathan Hankins is a serious serious player

decent pair of corners too

the NFC East this season is a tough one.
Should be fun watching the Giants this year then with all the varying opinions..

It's always great to get different opinions, so, Mr Hollis, Mr Hatter and everyone else, keep them coming. NFL is historically a strong sport for Fred and it's something that has bonded the thread in some quite brilliant moments.

30-odd submarkets and 16 games a week. The bookies can't price them all correctly.
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« Reply #105524 on: August 16, 2015, 02:20:50 PM »

Not sure it's wise to look at spread betting like that Peter.  The 20 a point size would cost you 400 to exit even if nothing moved.  It's a big position.  If there was a freak 7 nil game which gave 50 points or whatever it was then it would cost you 1400 to exit.  

I'm not saying it's a bad bet, just that its massive compared to your fixed odds stuff.

But in my example above I am looking at a loss of £3000, and that's just a £7.89 loss per game. Today alone I wagered £126 on other football bets.

Surprised and interested to see all the comments regarding my betting haha.

I should clarify, my bet sizes for F1 and Football are pretty much the same, £10 usually, maybe the odd £25 or £50 bet, depending on how confident I'm feeling, and the price. However, I place greater volume of bets on Football, purely because there are more markets to choose from. The F1 markets are not very widespread.

Does that make sense?

not really

do you understand spread betting?

your football bets you hypothesise on here in the spread markets have downsides of thousands of pounds



Of course, but that's over 38 gameweeks. We said the maximum realistic loss was £2000 and something, let's say £3000 for the sake of argument, that's over 380 games - which would only be a £7.89 loss per game.

Would you bet say £1500 on the winner of the F1 championship next season after all its over 20 odd races so may only boil down to £75 a race? In my eyes its the same theory.

I honestly don't see a problem with this? Depending on my confidence in the driver of course.

Peter I think in general the guys are concerned that you are going to do your gonads when.there is really no need. You seem to have the biggest edge of anyone on F1, why not re adjust the imbalance between your football bets and F1 bets (as there does seem to be one) and be a big long term winner at the sport you are best at. If this was really such a great bet do you not think that Camel, Chompy, Arbboy, Dung etc would all be getting Tikay to cash in his sky pension and lump on with his Fiancé new ring? (You get my point) sometimes we get married to a bet we have found, great if all the sharps agree not so great if they voice concern.

Have we already established that there is an imbalance? I do bet more on football, but that's due to higher volume of bets, markets and matches. In terms of bet size on individual bets, that's the same on both sports. I also would point out that I do make a profit on football betting too Smiley Not so far this season mind, but consistently in previous seasons.
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