Tips for Tikay

[Newportlad]

I'd like to put up one of Tighty's NFL team recommendations.

San Francisco 49ers to finish 4th in the NFL West at 10/11 with Ladbloke  (11/10 available with Scy).      I think that this is a really good bet.  San Fran have probably had the worst offseason in living memory. Head Coach changed, lots of retirements to key players.  They are nothing like the team they were 2 seasons ago, when they should have won the Superbowl.     Suggest the max you can get on for this one.

[Dekka]

Hi

New member, first post but I've been lurking a while and have enjoyed reading a lot of posts on the various threads on the site.  I noticed a recent discussion in Fred about the perils of spreadbetting so thought I'd start on Blonde by sharing this gem of a tweet from the Racing Post editor from last night.

[tikay]

Hi

New member, first post but I've been lurking a while and have enjoyed reading a lot of posts on the various threads on the site.  I noticed a recent discussion in Fred about the perils of spreadbetting so thought I'd start on Blonde by sharing this gem of a tweet from the Racing Post editor from last night.

Thanks Dekka, & welcome to Fred.

For those not aware, it's not quite your first post on blonde - you were (virtually) railing Wellchief in the WSOP, as I recall.

[Dekka]

Thanks Dekka, & welcome to Fred.

For those not aware, it's not quite your first post on blonde - you were (virtually) railing Wellchief in the WSOP, as I recall.

Ooops.  I'd completely forgotten that.  It was about 5am as I recall.  Anyway, thanks for the welcome Tikay.  I have no idea if I've managed to successfully pick up your quote and change the right bit to bold but I guess I'll find out when I hit "post".  Have a good day everyone.

[tikay]

^^^^

1 out of 2 ain't bad.

Don't be a stranger now you have broken the ice

[TightEnd]

Good start for Middlesex today as they hope to consolidate 2nd place in the championship

[TightEnd]

I'd like to put up one of Tighty's NFL team recommendations.

San Francisco 49ers to finish 4th in the NFL West at 10/11 with Ladbloke  (11/10 available with Scy).      I think that this is a really good bet.  San Fran have probably had the worst offseason in living memory. Head Coach changed, lots of retirements to key players.  They are nothing like the team they were 2 seasons ago, when they should have won the Superbowl.     Suggest the max you can get on for this one.

betvictor

4th San Francisco 49ers Division Finishing Position
10/11
Total Stake: £30.00
Potential Returns: £57.30

[TightEnd]

In the absence of contrary views, Fred should be putting on as many of Tighty's tips as are still available, if only so he has something to write about on a Monday. That and he knows what he's talking about.  But mostly the daily report thing.

pick a couple you like and we'll do them.

[TightEnd]

England v Australia ODI Cricket Series September 2015

This is a five game ODI series to conclude the Ashes Tour after the one off T20 game which was won by England at Cardiff on Monday

The games are as follows

Thursday 3 September ODI vs Australia, Ageas Bowl, Southampton
Saturday 5 September ODI vs Australia, Lord’s
Tuesday 8 September ODI vs Australia, Emirates Old Trafford
Friday 11 September ODI vs Australia, Headingley
Sunday 13 September ODI vs Australia, Emirates Old Trafford

Australia won the World Cup in February while England, after their terrible performance in that competition, are rebuilding with a young team with a more aggressive approach befitting the modern limited-over game.

England’s squad, lead by Eoin Morgan who is returning from a  period out of the game due to poor form, is similar to that which played the series against New Zealand in the first part of the summer except that key batsman Joe Root is rested. Moeen Ali, Jos Buttler, Steve Finn and Ben Stokes are those players in the squad that featured in the Ashes

The English selectors said

"This is primarily a young group of players and the next three weeks will provide them with valuable experience as we continue to identify players who can take our limited overs cricket forward over the next four years."

Foremost amongst those young players are openers Jason Roy and Alex Hales, middle order batsman James Taylor, all rounder David Willey, wicket-keeper batsman Sam Billings and spinner Adil Rashid

Australia claimed their fifth World Cup in the 50-over game in March but since then wicketkeeper Brad Haddin and Test captain Michael Clarke have announced their retirement from the format.

Fast bowlers Mitchell Johnson and Josh Hazlewood are also being rested after Australia`s unsuccessful Ashes campaign against England, which followed a Test series in the West Indies.

"The squad we have selected has a few fresh faces in it as well as some experienced players that will provide us with the right balance," said selectors` chairman Rod Marsh

The Australian squad of 15 players is captained by Steve smith and features renowned ODI talents in David Warner, Mitchell Starc and Glenn Maxwell but also has an eye on youth with the inclusion of Ashton Agar, Cameron Boyce, Nathan Coulter-Nile and Joe Burns.

Outright prices for the series have Australia 8/15 and England 15/8

Understandably Australia are favourites with a much better record in the format and match-winning potential from their senior players, but England are a more formidable proposition than they were the last two times the teams played in this format

The question of the pitches the series is likely to be played on is crucial. Versus New Zealand in the first part of the summer, the series was played on good pace pitches with bounce and this led to attractive cricket, good stroke-play and high scores.

This was also the case at Cardiff for Monday’s T20 international and if it is to be continued for these five days England are attractively priced because their depth of batting and aggressive approach suits faster tracks

It is on tired/used pitches that England’s weaknesses are exposed with more difficult amassing scores on such decks. Of course we have to bear in mind that late summer in England may see inclement weather and some seam friendly conditions

Looking at sub-markets:

Top Australian bowler

Cummins showed in the T20 International that he can challenge Starc here. Bowling at up to 93-94 mph he troubled the batsmen and showed impressive skills in the last overs too with Yorkers. Starc’s record in white ball cricket is of course excellent but I will again take a chance on Cummins for the series at 7/2 with William Hill against Starc as short as 2/1

Top England bowler

Bowling at both ends of the innings, David Willey was the top T20 England bowler at Cardiff. He can swing the white bowl and is a big price at 5/1 here with Coral for the series behind favourite Finn, Stokes, Rashid and Woakes. Over five games team rotation is a risk and its unclear how many of the bowlers will play all of the games

Top England batsman

In this market I would like to stay away from the top three, who will have to face Starc and Cummins in their pomp and there is also James Taylor to fit into the top 6 so some team rotation is likely too. Moeen Ali was impressive at Cardiff and should be guaranteed a spot as his ability to bowl some overs with spin balances the team. He is a more than fiar price at 11/2 with Bet365 for the series

Top Australian bastsman
On a good pitch where movement off the seam was not a big factor, Steve Smith once again showed his class at Cardiff with a 90. He is a clear and deserved 9/4 favourite ahead of his main challenger in this market, opener David Warner at 3/1. It’s difficult to look beyond the two favourites, who bat in the top three.



recommend

england at near 2-1 for the series
cummins top aus bowler at 7/2
willey top eng bowler at 5/1
moeen top eng bat at 11/2
smith top aus bat at 9/4

£20 each, £100 in

i think my old favourite david willey, off whom i had many successes in the last 24 months, is a monster price

a quick update on these

Australia lead 2-1 after 3 matches after england won at Old trafford yesterday

Willey has not played (baffling)

Ai has been stuck at 7 (wasted) and has the sum total of 26 runs in three games


better news

Cummins has 8 wickets in 3 games
Maxwell has 5
Starc has 4 and looks knackered

Smith has  139 runs
wade and marsh have 117 and 114 runs batting 7 and 6

with two games to go we hope smith and cummins hold for a profit over the series of bets

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/the-ashes-2015/engine/records/averages/batting_bowling_by_team.html?id=9255;team=2;type=series

[DungBeetle]

I don't get Ali batting at 7.  Stokes is never a number 5 in an ODI team that expects to challenge for trophies.   What is wrong with Ali/Buttler/Stokes in that order? (I know Buttler hasn't done much recently but still think he should be ahead of Stokes).

What happens to Taylor when Root comes back.  Feel like he has to miss out no matter how well he does given the shape of the team?

[Tal]

In the absence of contrary views, Fred should be putting on as many of Tighty's tips as are still available, if only so he has something to write about on a Monday. That and he knows what he's talking about.  But mostly the daily report thing.

pick a couple you like and we'll do them.

I mentioned Big Ben at 7/1 in my Carlton "Carson" Palmer tip. He's the only one I can realistically see getting close to a fit and performing Luck. Can't be a bad bet in that comparison, but I would rather back him at 7/1 to win than 7/4 first three. He has been historically inconsistent.

Steelers highest scoring team is a related contingency I assume? Passing is quicker than running, stops the clock if unsuccessful and leads generally to higher scoring games. 28/1 could be fun. I'd love a barney rubble tho...

Under 6.5 with San Francisco seems a big bet to me. Already supported ITT this morning. Let's do that and hope they continue to ask Kaepernick to stay in the pocket.

The Jets have a great schedule of poor and/or poorly protected quarterbacks. Leonard Williams has to be a DROTY player, even if the team is poor. Double digit sacks would put him in the conversation.

Those are my favourites...

[TightEnd]

Pittsburgh Steelers Regular Season Highest Scoring Team
25/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £260.00


Ben Roethlisberger Regular Season Most Passing Yards
7/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £80.00


can't get on the rookie bet. no money on coral and no balls at ladbrokes. don't think williams is a double digit sack man, all round though including run stopping he will be in the frame. randy gregory might be 8-10 sackes but can't get the 20-1 at bet365

we already have a 49ers bet earlier, to finish 4th

[Chompy]

Evans 4-9 for the Posh gig now after Rotherham called a press conference tomorrow.

Looks like we're gonna have a fatman jogging up and down the touchline for the first time since Fry hung up his trackies.

[KingPush]

I don't get Ali batting at 7.  Stokes is never a number 5 in an ODI team that expects to challenge for trophies.   What is wrong with Ali/Buttler/Stokes in that order? (I know Buttler hasn't done much recently but still think he should be ahead of Stokes).

What happens to Taylor when Root comes back.  Feel like he has to miss out no matter how well he does given the shape of the team?

Ali should be batting higher up than Stokes, weird that Stokes has been given the 5 spot when his bowling>batting recently. On the Root/Taylor thing I think play both of them Root 3, Taylor 4. Taylor should get another go at Test cricket and I think Cook, x, Bell, Taylor, Root could be potentially very good.

[TightEnd]

i didn't look at this market earlier but have done today.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/worst-record

i can see modest improvements for all the teams 10-1 or below, whether drafting young talent, reasonably soft schedules etc

i could see a team like the bears going 2-14 or so

14-1 to get the first pick in next years draft

against this Fox is a good coach, they might over-achieve their talent level

for this, Cutler could well be a basket case (again)

the OL has Kyle Long (had to move him out to right tackle from his pro bowl position ) and then what? matt forte is a runner that needs protection and space, imo not a dirty yards runner behind a bad line (if that is what it is)

jeffrey is injury prone and white is out the first half of the season

not a great deal of young talent across the defense (kyle fuller excepted)

vets like tillman, garza and briggs has gone

tough and improving division in which they are 8/11 to finish fourth

they have to play the nfc west, so seattle, arizona and the rams (49ers)

they have to play the afc west, so denver and KC (oakland)

14-1 looks like a sporting price to me for a run at a very bad season, then draft your QB next in the top ten picks next may and really accelerate the rebuild