Tips for Tikay

[KarmaDope]

safety car 1/5 should be shorter right?

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/singapore-grand-prix/safety-car

never been a singapore gp without a safety car (7 modern singapore night races since 2008)....tyres degrade a lot there...abrasive track, hot race for the drivers=mistakes

teams even build safety cars into their strategy...

I would say there's a 90% chance of a safety car. It might well be value, but would we consider any bet at 1/5? Surely you'd have to put at least £250 on it to make it worthwhile? Seems too risky?

Yes we would and have plenty of times. if we think its 1/10 and we can back it at 1/5 and we have the bankroll, then why not?

If this includes the Virtual Safety Car option then I'd have the lot on.

[Rubbish2407]

Yep, sorry, prices were there when I was typing then disappeared. I got nothing on. Nadolo is being offered odds under his real name which is Nemani Nasiganiyavi on Betfair. Keep an eye out in case someone does something stupid. There are other markets under his Nadolo name as well? Could be a recipe for disaster for somebody.

no problem

were you coming up with a rwc post for us, or has time/life beaten you?

no worries if not

I was going to do one which would have taken 4 separate postings. Unfortunately the warm up games made me change my mind several times, I was hot for Ireland, not so much now and then Wales' debacle against Italy sucked the life out of me.

To summarize, I was big on Ireland to go all the way before Wales and England beat them.

Huge on Wales to top their group until Webb and to a lesser extent, Halfpenny blew up.

Big on Kriel which we have a bet on but De Villiers now looks likely to start all games.

Looking to get with Samoa against Scotland in their group.

There was a few other bets but the prices have gone now so no point listing them.

I will pop in daily with some bets though if anything stands out.

Actually Bet Victor have listed Nadolo under his real name as well and are 5/2 anytime which is best price.

[mulhuzz]

If be looking to oppose England wherever I can for group/stages/etc as they are chronically over backed.

That said, eng-24 looks an absolute corker of a bet.

A bit contradictory!

Feels a bit like people are getting carried away about a home England team playing against a supposed minnow of the game. Fiji are quite capable of scoring and so to cover the handicap England are probably going to have to put up 35+ points themselves which they don't do too often in test rugby, especially with the pressure of opening the World Cup on them.

It's one of those where making a bold prediction either way could make one look a bit silly come 10pm tonight. Personally I don't think the mark is far off and so wouldn't want to get heavily involved. If my arm was twisted i'd probably actually go with the Fiji head start expecting a ~20 point win for the home team.

England are heavily over backed as we are quite an average team. Certainly not 2nd faves behind NZ.

That said, they will beat Fiji by more than the line is set im quite sure.

[Jamier-Host]

Actually Bet Victor have listed Nadolo under his real name as well and are 5/2 anytime which is best price.

PP go 20/1 e/w but only first 3 scores...

[Doobs]

If be looking to oppose England wherever I can for group/stages/etc as they are chronically over backed.

That said, eng-24 looks an absolute corker of a bet.

A bit contradictory!

Feels a bit like people are getting carried away about a home England team playing against a supposed minnow of the game. Fiji are quite capable of scoring and so to cover the handicap England are probably going to have to put up 35+ points themselves which they don't do too often in test rugby, especially with the pressure of opening the World Cup on them.

It's one of those where making a bold prediction either way could make one look a bit silly come 10pm tonight. Personally I don't think the mark is far off and so wouldn't want to get heavily involved. If my arm was twisted i'd probably actually go with the Fiji head start expecting a ~20 point win for the home team.

England are heavily over backed as we are quite an average team. Certainly not 2nd faves behind NZ.

That said, they will beat Fiji by more than the line is set im quite sure.

Fiji 8 in the World.  People would be predicting 30+ gaps vs the other minnows like Scotland?  Are the rankings way out or are this lot better than Scotland. 

Ps could someone explain why do we need to put £250 on a 1/5 chance.  Surely our average bet is much lower than that.   Is this a max bet due to an insane hedge or are we getting confused again. 

[Rubbish2407]

If be looking to oppose England wherever I can for group/stages/etc as they are chronically over backed.

That said, eng-24 looks an absolute corker of a bet.

A bit contradictory!

Feels a bit like people are getting carried away about a home England team playing against a supposed minnow of the game. Fiji are quite capable of scoring and so to cover the handicap England are probably going to have to put up 35+ points themselves which they don't do too often in test rugby, especially with the pressure of opening the World Cup on them.

It's one of those where making a bold prediction either way could make one look a bit silly come 10pm tonight. Personally I don't think the mark is far off and so wouldn't want to get heavily involved. If my arm was twisted i'd probably actually go with the Fiji head start expecting a ~20 point win for the home team.

England are heavily over backed as we are quite an average team. Certainly not 2nd faves behind NZ.

That said, they will beat Fiji by more than the line is set im quite sure.

Fiji 8 in the World.  People would be predicting 30+ gaps vs the other minnows like Scotland?  Are the rankings way out or are this lot better than Scotland. 

Ps could someone explain why do we need to put £250 on a 1/5 chance.  Surely our average bet is much lower than that.   Is this a max bet due to an insane hedge or are we getting confused again. 

I would say that Fiji are better than Scotland and England beat Scotland by 12 points this year when Scotland couldn't buy a win.

[TightEnd]

Ps could someone explain why do we need to put £250 on a 1/5 chance.  Surely our average bet is much lower than that.   Is this a max bet due to an insane hedge or are we getting confused again. 

i didn't mention a figure, but there's favourite/longshot bias in the price. 1/5 can't be right on a 7 race sample size and what we know about the race. i am not sure if it includes virtual safety car, don't think we've ever got a definite answer on that one

our average bet is far lower yes, but that doesn't stop maxes being recommended from time to time by various people

[Ironside]

Anyone have bwin and ok to put a big brother bet on? PM me if so. Will pass some on to thread obvs.

ok is it you thats caused the market to change so wildly on betfair today?

[Chompy]

Anyone have bwin and ok to put a big brother bet on? PM me if so. Will pass some on to thread obvs.

ok is it you thats caused the market to change so wildly on betfair today?

Not me, not these days.

Unf bwin are a bunch of rofflers, and could only get tiddlearse amount on, as in £18, so not really worth passing any on.

Today's market shifts would have been caused by uncertainty over what's happening with tonight's twist.

The market is assuming that Jimmy Hill, Natasha, Janice and Davro will be the top four, but only Jimmy is nailed on to be in the four imo. Hence he's tightened up and others have driffed.

[Ironside]

i havent seen any since they went in but i did put £5 on bobby at 8.2 and he was well under that most of the time
but there doesnt seem to be a formed market anymore with best back price for booby at 8.2 and best lay price 11

this seems very unusual for big brother it used to be a very fluid market

[rinswun]

I backed Fiji on the spread at +24.5 earlier.

May be completely wrong but where previous posters have mentioned running up a score with the importance of points difference in mind, I actually think England will be looking to ensure the get the win first and foremost so they don't take themselves out of the competition before it's even begun, and will be kicking points for the first 60 mins.

Fiji have reportedly had a longer camp than any other nation so should be well organized which is traditionally their downfall. I expect England to win but fancy it'll be 15-20 than than 25-30.

As an aside, I can't be having England at the price they are for the tournament. They haven't won a Six Nations title under Lancaster and haven't had a winning record in any specific Autumn international period or Summer tour during the Lancaster regime. Only home side ever to win the title is New Zealand, and they scraped over the line. Can't understand these 9/2 quotes at all.

[Peter-27]

Ps could someone explain why do we need to put £250 on a 1/5 chance.  Surely our average bet is much lower than that.   Is this a max bet due to an insane hedge or are we getting confused again. 

i didn't mention a figure, but there's favourite/longshot bias in the price. 1/5 can't be right on a 7 race sample size and what we know about the race. i am not sure if it includes virtual safety car, don't think we've ever got a definite answer on that one

our average bet is far lower yes, but that doesn't stop maxes being recommended from time to time by various people

While it is a value spot, I'm not sure I personally would suggest it. The risk vs reward ratio is just bad, despite being value. On the other hand, if you had the money to burn .. then it's probably worth it. Who knows, I feel out of my depth with this one! 

[tikay]

Nadolo scores.

[JohnCharver]

Nadolo scores.

Raises the blood pressure of those on overs on the spread.


Nice shout

[MattyHollis]

Absolutely vomit at the spread backers (one of which was myself!). Sick.