Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=70&ev_type_id=26759&ev_oc_grp_ids=2193789&bir_index=

One of my few good mates who doesn't gamble seriously has told me the fav in this event (dan Evans in the men's event) 'has to fall off his bike not to win this event tomorrow'.  He rides with several of these guys as he is a serious amateur cyclist and says this guy is totally different gravy to the field.  I obviously know nothing about this field at all but this guy is a life nit and very tight with his money.  He doesn't tell me stuff like this every often and anytime he does on cycling he virtually always collects.

Think it is worth an interest for those who can get on.  No use for fred/me as we can't get on at paddy.  He said way over half the field in this literally have no chance of winning.  Obviously if Fred can get on via a 3rd party then £100 at 13/8 is recommended.

Send me a crate of stella when he gags up if you get on!

[BiloxiDesire]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=70&ev_type_id=26759&ev_oc_grp_ids=2193789&bir_index=

One of my few good mates who doesn't gamble seriously has told me the fav in this event (dan Evans in the men's event) 'has to fall off his bike not to win this event tomorrow'.  He rides with several of these guys as he is a serious amateur cyclist and says this guy is totally different gravy to the field.  I obviously know nothing about this field at all but this guy is a life nit and very tight with his money.  He doesn't tell me stuff like this every often and anytime he does on cycling he virtually always collects.

Think it is worth an interest for those who can get on.  No use for fred/me as we can't get on at paddy.  He said way over half the field in this literally have no chance of winning.  Obviously if Fred can get on via a 3rd party then £100 at 13/8 is recommended.

Send me a crate of stella when he gags up if you get on!

Come into 6/4 and now suspended, before I got a chance to get on .

[arbboy]

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/rttc-national-hill-climb-championships-2015-who-will-win-195944

It is a time trial as well.  No race so virtually zero chance of him crashing/falling off.  It is a one mile sprint up an average 11% climb.  Our man goes last as well so has position on the field and knows exactly what/who he will have to beat.

Piece about our man in the article.  I have been told a 'recce' in cycling terms is actually going to the course and having a trial so to speak.  I assume not everyone does this given he mentioned it.

The reigning champion has been in devastating form this autumn, winning every sub-6 minute event he has entered, and performing way above expectations on longer courses.  The Welshman has recorded personal best power numbers on a weekly basis and he has another weapon to unleash on Sunday – his Cannondale bike has been stripped back to weigh in at below 5kg.

“I’m lighter than ever, my numbers are better than ever and my bike’s lighter than ever. I’m pretty confident.  I did a recce last Saturday and picked up a few really important things that could save me time,” the 34-year-old said.


Read more at http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest-news/rttc-national-hill-climb-championships-2015-who-will-win-195944#dwe5tQpv4V6SCmhS.99

[The Camel]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

Betfair sportsbook must have the largest % of restricted accounts of any bookmaker.

Friends who aren't even punters, who have never been restricted by any other bookie, have their accounts chopped by them.

They offer free money in promos, and if anyone takes advantage, they lose their account.

Complete shambles of a firm.

[arbboy]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

Betfair sportsbook must have the largest % of restricted accounts of any bookmaker.

Friends who aren't even punters, who have never been restricted by any other bookie, have their accounts chopped by them.

They offer free money in promos, and if anyone takes advantage, they lose their account.

Complete shambles of a firm.

Everyone's account should be able to have a bet to win a grand when their exchange goes down.  Their customer service is getting worse and worse by the month.

[doubleup]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

Betfair sportsbook must have the largest % of restricted accounts of any bookmaker.

Friends who aren't even punters, who have never been restricted by any other bookie, have their accounts chopped by them.

They offer free money in promos, and if anyone takes advantage, they lose their account.

Complete shambles of a firm.

Everyone's account should be able to have a bet to win a grand when their exchange goes down.  Their customer service is getting worse and worse by the month.

I cannot possibly see how "running the exchange into the ground" would make any business sense.  Betfair is just a 3rd rate online book without it.

[The Camel]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

Betfair sportsbook must have the largest % of restricted accounts of any bookmaker.

Friends who aren't even punters, who have never been restricted by any other bookie, have their accounts chopped by them.

They offer free money in promos, and if anyone takes advantage, they lose their account.

Complete shambles of a firm.

Everyone's account should be able to have a bet to win a grand when their exchange goes down.  Their customer service is getting worse and worse by the month.

I cannot possibly see how "running the exchange into the ground" would make any business sense.  Betfair is just a 3rd rate online book without it.

I certainly don't understand why a decent alternative hasn't emerged in the last decade.

[Doobs]

Betfair exchange only goes down just after mid day and amazingly re appears at 3.01pm just after all the mugs are forced into the sportsbook to place their weekend football and racing bets.  Anyone else as cynical as me and think they are just running the exchange into the ground on purpose?

Betfair sportsbook must have the largest % of restricted accounts of any bookmaker.

Friends who aren't even punters, who have never been restricted by any other bookie, have their accounts chopped by them.

They offer free money in promos, and if anyone takes advantage, they lose their account.

Complete shambles of a firm.

Everyone's account should be able to have a bet to win a grand when their exchange goes down.  Their customer service is getting worse and worse by the month.

I cannot possibly see how "running the exchange into the ground" would make any business sense.  Betfair is just a 3rd rate online book without it.

Since they changed strategy, their profits have rocketed.  Absolutely baffling to me.

[Rubbish2407]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

Smarkets? never head of them

well need some of yours to get the 5/2 please.

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/rugby-world-cup/argentina-v-australia/winner

let me know how much of the £25 you can spare

You've got £25 @ 3.55 as I'm balls deep on Argentina.

Smarkets are an exchange which don't have Betfairs liquidity but do stay open during peak punting times. They also only charge 2% commission.

[Tal]

Just posted on the Strictly thread...

Highest Scorer

We are starting to see the pack catching up as those with no dance experience show promise and learn the skills. This logically means there's a higher chance of a chop at the top, so we should be thinking of where the value might be.

Peter has to do a slow dance, which we haven't seen him try yet. I expect him to have hips but the mood of the dance is going to be a challenge, after a run of quick and intense dances (randomly selected, I am sure) in the early weeks. We will find out tonight whether he is a genuine contender for the glitter ball tonight, IMO. The rumba is by far the hardest dance for men - a lot of apparent inactivity but you have to keep fluid motion through the body and soft hips with a straight leg, which will feel unnatural but looks great - so anything above 28 would be a serious score. This early, I'd add 4 to any male rumba score for a rough idea of how he does.

Katie has an interesting dance tonight. Anton's last choreography for a latin was the Pretty Woman cha cha of week three, which was heavily and rightly chastised for a lack of content. Anton is not the most natural salsa dancer and he won't have danced the salsa at all outside Strictly; it isn't part of the traditional ten dances and Anton would almost exclusively be in ballroom competitions anyway. However, the judges will be watching and he needs to produce a decent dance for Katie, who has great legs and a natural rhythm, so she should be able to do well tonight. Expect lots of "armography", but that means there are risks of it going wrong as one of them (and it could be either - Anton himself admitted making a mistake in their Viennese Waltz last week) loses timing. I'd not want to be backing her to top the leaderboard two weeks on the bounce.

Jay is comically short again. He will deliver a good Paso - he strikes me as being a good character dancer - but 7/4 is bonkers. 5/2 would be on the tight side of fair. Doobs's post above suggests the bookies are taking bets on Jay, which explains why we shouldn't be following suit. I don't like the song as a Paso, but Aliona is adamant it works. Aliona is putting too much content in her choreography for Jay, in my view. He would be better off with less to remember and doing it well.

Kellie's jive looks fantastic. She is a very serious contender IMO. However, her greatest asset is also her biggest threat: Kevin. The smartest pro dancers on Strictly (off the top of my head, Matthew Cutler, Ola Jordan, Lilya Kopylova, Darren Bennett, Artem Chigvintsev, Brendan Cole, Natalie Lowe) take a little off the sharpness of their dancing, particularly in latin, so that their partner looks the same as them. It's called underdancing. Looking at their training, I'm seeing the same problem as Suzanna Reid had with Kevin, as his kicks and flicks are supremely sharp (start later, finish earlier), which masks how good Kellie's are. She will still score well but the syncopation in the side by side parts of the jive might not look as good as it actually is.

Georgia continues to be solid and unspectacular. I don't expect her to be any different tonight. I still believe she struggles with quicker stuff and this salsa feels quick and involved. She will be fine but 6/1 to top the leaderboard is no price at all.

Anita has a lot going for her and I do anticipate she will go deep in this series. However, this doesn't feel like her dance to me. The tango will be like Georgia and solid, with lots to like and a few bits to improve upon. Gleb is pushing her, no question, and I would think upper twenties again is realistic.

Helen has been criticised for her ballet legs. She is going to be very good at a light touch quickstep. Aljaž can glide her across the floor and her long, rangy legs will carry her effortlessly. They have excellent chemistry and put the hours in to refine the technical bits...and this dance has a lot of detail, the execution of which is what separates an excellent quickstep from a good one. 6/1 is not bad at all. It isn't a world beating price but it's better than I expected. I had her at 5/1 ish and with Jay being falsely short, there's room for a bet here, I think.

Next Elimination

Obvious stuff is obvious.

Jeremy will be worst but will survive thanks to the public. Carol might go but you feel it's a week or two too soon for the darling of the BBC to waltz off awkwardly into the sunset.

Kirsty is 5/4 favourite and I think that's massively out of line. There is often a bounce after being in the dance off: the contestant has a new incentive and the public don't want to lose someone. She has been in the media a lot this week (front page of the metro yesterday, interview with the Daily Mail in the week, a few charity things), which will help her exposure. She has also found a dance she really likes and she's very good at pivots, which, in the Viennese Waltz, is very important. She has a strong core that will enable her to keep frame and posture intact. Against that, Brendan has had a family issue this week, if reports are accurate, and they have not been able to do much training. I expect her to stay nonetheless.

Ainsley's jive will look awful next to Kellie's but he might be funny enough to stop in. Just.

The one I really like to go next is Jamelia. She's been in the dance off before so we know votes are an issue. She is doing a foxtrot which she doesn't look suited to at all. The music is bizarre and I believe she will struggle. 7/1 with betway but 6/1 with actual bookies. I like this.

Cliffs
Helen to be top tonight
Jamelia to go.
Each 6/1

Tenner on each, please, unless there are different views. 

Helen joint top with Kellie.

Should pay 3/1.

[kukushkin88]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

fwiw I think Australia will cover, easily. I love Argentina this time but they're not in the race Aussie's -6 is max imo

[MattyHollis]

William Hill Greyhound St Leger starts tonight at Wimbledon.

Selection Wiki Waki Woo @25/1 rec £10ew (top 4 1/4)

Golden jacket winner with front runners speed over this distance will progress tonight and get better next week/week after.

Wiki Waki Woo St Leger Winner
25/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £332.50


Please keep us in touch with how it goes

Not the sweat I was hoping for, first round casualty apologies.

[Marky147]

William Hill Greyhound St Leger starts tonight at Wimbledon.

Selection Wiki Waki Woo @25/1 rec £10ew (top 4 1/4)

Golden jacket winner with front runners speed over this distance will progress tonight and get better next week/week after.

Wiki Waki Woo St Leger Winner
25/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £332.50


Please keep us in touch with how it goes

Not the sweat I was hoping for, first round casualty apologies.

Unlucky Matt, but never apologise.

Just keep them coming.

[Rubbish2407]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

fwiw I think Australia will cover, easily. I love Argentina this time but they're not in the race Aussie's -6 is max imo

Any reasons for this bullish statement?

[arbboy]

Australia were lucky against Wales. Had Scott Williams, Jonathan Davies or Cory Allen been fit then I honestly believe we would have won. Had Wales been playing against Argentina then I think, on a neutral venue, Wales would have been slight favourites, 4/5 - 5/4 - 20/1 the draw.
Australia were very lucky against Scotland. No point harping on about it, had the last minute decision been made in the first minute then nobody would have mentioned it. It wasn't though and Scotland were out. Had they not been then I would have made Argentina favourites against them, maybe 4/7 - 7/4 - 20/1.
I can't for the life of me see how Argentina are 5/2 against Australia tomorrow?
Okay, Hooper missed the Welsh game and Pocock missed the Scottish game. Both are playing but Argentina did beat them this time last year and won out in South Africa recently so are clearly a team on the up.
Suggest £25 at 5/2 with Smarkets, if you haven't got an account and want some of mine let me know.

fwiw I think Australia will cover, easily. I love Argentina this time but they're not in the race Aussie's -6 is max imo

Any reasons for this bullish statement?

Couple of Scotch's kicking in early before the Eubank fight is fav.