Tips for Tikay

[sonour]

Peter,

Thank you very much for the Force India and McLaren spread bets. I'd like to nominate them for Bet Of the Year.

They were certainly my ' best ' bets this year.

[peejaytwo]

In the 1.00 Leic I bet King Kayf in an ew double taking Hills 11/1 early price. As it was 2.2 to place I knew it wouldn't be any bigger from the live show. So although I was getting ev on the place part the win odds were 20 on betfair.
Am I giving too much away on the win part Arb?
As a bit of a contradiction I was gonna bet the second fav ew at 9/4 as the place odds were 1.15 I the machine. Turned it down as the win was 3.7 on bf.
I really ought to look into this more as its the uncompetitive novice hurdle season.

Was 2.14/2.20 in a great shaped race.


Peejay,

Is 2.2 the decimal place odds at Betfair or the 1/5 odds place part of the 11/1 at the bookies ?

Is the question which is better  21.0 and 2.2 or 12.0 and 3.2 ?

Hi Sonour,
I was kinda thinking aloud, aware that 11/5 were great place odds on the KK bet, but as the win part was poor compared to betfair was the whole bet +ev if you like. I refused to bet the second fav in the same race (as a single) at 9/4, the place was trading at 1.15ish at the time, just cos the win part was 3.7 on the machine.
I'm just an ew punter and very rarely lay off any part of the bets I have but it's something worth looking at, esp as I suspect it's easy to have £100 ew at 9/4 yet impossible to get £100 on the prev mentioned 11/1 shot without visiting four shops.

What were the place odds on Betfair, Peejay ?

20/1 to 11/1 is a massive amount to give up on the win part. The place odds on Betfair would have to have been about 2.2 ( decimal ) to even consider it.
'Twas 2.14-2.20
As Arb has said I'm beginning to think it's giving too much away on the win part of the bet.
Ok for ew multiples tho?

[Tal]

Odell Beckham just made another one of his spectacular touchdown catches.



Incredible player.

[Micko]

Awesome shout Adz!

[DungBeetle]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

I don't think this follows.  McLaren are going to be hardest to predict next season.  McLaren can be both be both more likely to finish first than Williams and more likely to finish last than Williams.  You can say Mercedes are 95% certain to finish in front of Force India, and that Williams are likely to be in the same ballpark as Force India, but you can't be at all certain where McLaren end up. 

I don't blame the bookies at all.  You don't want to go 100/1 McLaren and leave yourself open to a bunch of honda insiders knowing much better than you how the engine development is going.  Tighty put up something on the racing thread the other day.  4 horses in the same yard were gambled in to very short prices (hills went evens all 4).."  They ended up last, last, 2nd last and pulled up.  Next time they run, you'd be a pretty thick bookie to read that form at face value and putting them all up at 50/1.  And I say that knowing the most likely result is all 4 will run badly.  90 times in 100 they will run horrid, 10 times you get hammered.  Good luck pricing that. 

A good judge that I know who works in F1 agrees with Peter on this. I believe they have lost, or are losing, a number of their sponsors. Tag ditching them was a bit of a shock. It means Honda have to spend more just to stand still. I'm looking to be short McLaren again.

Maybe but Doobs is correct that the bookies are just covering themselves over the off season.  If McLaren were 100-1 the correct play would be to back it now blind? It would be like buying an option.

I agree it's a horrible market to price up if you are an oddsmaker. If there was a spread quote available I think it could be very volatile and would probably have a much bigger buy/sell margin than usual.

Reminds me of the Brawn spread markets when Button won the title.   They went off jollies but if Ferrari was knocking out those testing times would have been 100 higher.  People just didn't know what to think pre season.  McLaren  will be same for different reasons (pedigree well financed team coming off a dog season).  As you say if you had to quote now it would a massive bid offer.  150 to 280 maybe?  I'd let someone sell at 150 right now I think.

[TightEnd]

 Big win for the redskins that. First place in the div with 5 games left

[DungBeetle]

So this is promising:

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/constructors-championship

People ranking McLaren as 4th favourites for the title is stupid. Despite what the media, and teams are saying, due to restricted engine development, McLaren will be just as bad next season, if not completely last given that Manor have a Mercedes engine in 2016. This all means that there will be lots of value available on McLaren next season

Pricing aside, surely if Honda think they have no chance of bettering this season they'll leave the sport citing engine development restrictions rather than trashing their brand by pootling around and the back before going phut for another year?

[arbboy]

In the 1.00 Leic I bet King Kayf in an ew double taking Hills 11/1 early price. As it was 2.2 to place I knew it wouldn't be any bigger from the live show. So although I was getting ev on the place part the win odds were 20 on betfair.
Am I giving too much away on the win part Arb?
As a bit of a contradiction I was gonna bet the second fav ew at 9/4 as the place odds were 1.15 I the machine. Turned it down as the win was 3.7 on bf.
I really ought to look into this more as its the uncompetitive novice hurdle season.

Peejay,

Is 2.2 the decimal place odds at Betfair or the 1/5 odds place part of the 11/1 at the bookies ?

Is the question which is better  21.0 and 2.2 or 12.0 and 3.2 ?

Hi Sonour,
I was kinda thinking aloud, aware that 11/5 were great place odds on the KK bet, but as the win part was poor compared to betfair was the whole bet +ev if you like. I refused to bet the second fav in the same race (as a single) at 9/4, the place was trading at 1.15ish at the time, just cos the win part was 3.7 on the machine.
I'm just an ew punter and very rarely lay off any part of the bets I have but it's something worth looking at, esp as I suspect it's easy to have £100 ew at 9/4 yet impossible to get £100 on the prev mentioned 11/1 shot without visiting four shops.

What were the place odds on Betfair, Peejay ?

20/1 to 11/1 is a massive amount to give up on the win part. The place odds on Betfair would have to have been about 2.2 ( decimal ) to even consider it.

This is one of two reasons why the odds on ew are so good.  Quite often the win price is actually under on bf as well so you getting another positive ev bet as well as the place.  The 2nd factor is most firms don't cut their limits for ew bets on the odds on poke either.  So you can get big volumes on as well.  Thirdly if you get 8 in a row beat like i have this week you must look a total clown to the average loltrader simply because he doesn't see the odds on jolly in terrible ew races as a threat to him as he doesn't cut the limits for ew bets from win only bets like they always do on the 2nd and 3rd favs.

[Tal]

Big win for the redskins that. First place in the div with 5 games left

Yes. Great tip there, Tighty.

Cooper sailed over for us.

Here's a gif of that Beckham catch:



If you're wondering where you've heard the name before, he did this last year:

[booder]

We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Pretty damn impressive. Well done all.

[arbboy]

We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Pretty damn impressive. Well done all.

Lucky i didn't put up any of the odds on ew's for the stakes we should be backing them for.  That would have soon ironed out the recovery and got the knees trembling.  In all seriousness we should be having swings of £1-£2k on a monthly basis (both ways) otherwise we are not betting correctly within our £10k roll as i stated on previous post earlier in the week.  

How much ev have we got in the bank on our ante post book portfolio?  Positive or negative (above value of the stakes) values of the bets at their current market prices roughly? 

[Tal]

We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Pretty damn impressive. Well done all.

Lucky i didn't put up any of the odds on ew's for the stakes we should be backing them for.  That would have soon ironed out the recovery and got the knees trembling.  In all seriousness we should be having swings of £1-£2k on a monthly basis (both ways) otherwise we are not betting correctly within our £10k roll as i stated on previous post earlier in the week. 

I know what you're saying but that sounds less like fun and more like work.

[Marky147]

We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Pretty damn impressive. Well done all.

Lucky i didn't put up any of the odds on ew's for the stakes we should be backing them for.  That would have soon ironed out the recovery and got the knees trembling.  In all seriousness we should be having swings of £1-£2k on a monthly basis (both ways) otherwise we are not betting correctly within our £10k roll as i stated on previous post earlier in the week.  

How much ev have we got in the bank on our ante post book portfolio?  Positive or negative (above value of the stakes) values of the bets at their current market prices roughly? 

I think we all get your point, but Fred isn't strictly a punting excercise, is it?

People aren't comfortable putting suggestions up for such large bets, and as such, Tighty/Tikay place the bets as posted.

Punters can lump whatever they want on the tips, as and when they please.

Think this has been posted several times previously, too.

[arbboy]

We've turned a 900 down month to a 60 down month in the last week

Pretty damn impressive. Well done all.

Lucky i didn't put up any of the odds on ew's for the stakes we should be backing them for.  That would have soon ironed out the recovery and got the knees trembling.  In all seriousness we should be having swings of £1-£2k on a monthly basis (both ways) otherwise we are not betting correctly within our £10k roll as i stated on previous post earlier in the week.  

I know what you're saying but that sounds less like fun and more like work.

Not really.  We were all betting to correct limits at the start when we had a £2k roll.  Roll is 5 times bigger now.  Not more or less fun just the same.  Just makes more sense and teaches newbies how to stake according to their roll (which is a vital part of fred education process for newbies as well as gaining value on bets in order to have an edge to make a long term profit).  Just having flat £20s and £50s on things makes no sense if you don't factor in the roll value and/or relative edge we have in every bet.  If roll drops down to £5k we adjust limits accordingly likewise if it increases to £15k (which based on the previous 3 years is more likely).   You wouldn't advice someone with a £10k roll on PHA to play a 50p/£1 cash game where they had a 5% edge just because you did when they had a £2k roll with the same edge.

Bets should be recommended as a % of roll between 0.5% and 10% being a total max with the vast majority of them being 1 or 2% bets (grinding small edges).  I think it would be easier for people to follow the relative strength of a bet from a poster if people posted bet sizing like that rather than in absolute amounts.  Nobody has to worry about being on the hook for £100 or £200 because we have all collectively built up this £10k roll which is the bookies money anyway.

The flip side of people being scared to post bets of the 'correct' size is that when i want to put up a max bet at £500 (or even a normal bet of £100 e/w or £200 e/w like i wanted to on several of these odds on horses this week) it basically means the whole month is dependent on one or two bets because the other bets in the month's portfolio are not sized correctly to take the variance.  It actually increases variance when people are scared to stake 'correctly' to the roll.  Which imo makes it less fun not more fun.  Each to their own but Keith set up the fred as an education purpose predominately as far as i was aware.

If fred has turned into a more casual affair now and we are banking the £10k and just playing for fun for micro stakes then that's cool.  I don't like putting stuff up as much now for 'correct' stakes because it just adds variance to the whole thing so i just don't post as many selections that i would have in the past.  It just feels like we are playing with 'scared money' for some reason and worrying like mad about having a losing month.

[Karabiner]

I reckon Teeks has put the £10K aside for his Blonde Bash Wedding Do.