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TightEnd
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« Reply #109695 on: December 01, 2015, 01:18:50 PM » |
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again
there are currently 9 major accounts where we can get on in full. 2 of these are restricted on some sub-markets
the situation is not terminal.
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #109696 on: December 01, 2015, 01:19:38 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
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arbboy
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« Reply #109697 on: December 01, 2015, 02:15:02 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Didnt see that race. I am on a train at the minute so wasn't around. The streak of short priced jollies losing with big ew value is over after the 6/4 poke in the 115 Southwell got up. 1/5 to place on the machine. |
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #109698 on: December 01, 2015, 03:11:05 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Didnt see that race. I am on a train at the minute so wasn't around. The streak of short priced jollies losing with big ew value is over after the 6/4 poke in the 115 Southwell got up. 1/5 to place on the machine. Mozo drifted on the show from 8/11 to Evs but was still 1.08 to place. Sunshine was better value on the earlies 7/4 (15/8 Hills I think) but 1.14 to place. |
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arbboy
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« Reply #109699 on: December 01, 2015, 03:13:10 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Didnt see that race. I am on a train at the minute so wasn't around. The streak of short priced jollies losing with big ew value is over after the 6/4 poke in the 115 Southwell got up. 1/5 to place on the machine. Mozo drifted on the show from 8/11 to Evs but was still 1.08 to place. Sunshine was better value on the earlies 7/4 (15/8 Hills I think) but 1.14 to place. Just back both ew. No brainer. You always want the jolly to drift ideally because the place price on bf will barely move but you get extra value as your place price is linked to the win price. |
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sonour
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« Reply #109700 on: December 01, 2015, 03:16:19 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Peejay, Did you see the spreadsheet that was posted for this yesterday ? Just key in bookies and Betfairs win and place prices and it will tell you where the Ev is. |
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arbboy
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« Reply #109701 on: December 01, 2015, 03:19:24 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Peejay, Did you see the spreadsheet that was posted for this yesterday ? Just key in bookies and Betfairs win and place prices and it will tell you where the Ev is. It is impossible if you are getting 1.38 about a 1.14 bf place price that it is a bad bet. The top of the market (first two in the betting when they are sub 2/1) win wise you are never giving up anywhere near that much ev on the win to make it an overall losing bet. No spreadsheet needed here. |
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« Last Edit: December 01, 2015, 03:28:05 PM by arbboy »
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #109702 on: December 01, 2015, 03:29:32 PM » |
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Mozo or sunshine ew in the 12.30 Arb?
Peejay, Did you see the spreadsheet that was posted for this yesterday ? Just key in bookies and Betfairs win and place prices and it will tell you where the Ev is. It is impossible if you are getting 1.38 about a 1.14 bf place price that it is a bad bet. The top of the market win wise you are never giving up anywhere near that much ev on the win to make it an overall losing bet. No spreadsheet needed here. Thx for the nudge. Just having a look now. @Arb some of us are still learning and need all the help we can get. Thx for the input btw |
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peejaytwo
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« Reply #109703 on: December 01, 2015, 03:32:02 PM » |
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@Arb,
Is Bags streaming helping liquidity on bf?
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arbboy
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« Reply #109704 on: December 01, 2015, 03:33:08 PM » |
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@Arb,
Is Bags streaming helping liquidity on bf?
Yes especially after the racing has finished between 4-630pm. That is the key area of improvement. The only problem since the streaming started was far too many favs have been winning! I think you have to assume the vast majority of additional business will be recs chasing after the horses have finished now they can view the race. Anyone pro or semi pro would have been involved pre streaming anyway. |
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« Last Edit: December 01, 2015, 03:40:28 PM by arbboy »
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BiloxiDesire
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« Reply #109705 on: December 01, 2015, 03:53:26 PM » |
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So I've just received a phone-call with on offer from a sportsbook I use, place a £30 bet at more than evens and if it loses receive a free bet to the same value as the losing bet.
What's the correct +ev way to use this?
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Marky147
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« Reply #109706 on: December 01, 2015, 03:54:22 PM » |
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I just logged into Betway, and see your Andre bet was a winner. That means you're now in credit, and I owe you £100. Will PM you the breakdown for clarity  |
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arbboy
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« Reply #109707 on: December 01, 2015, 04:00:01 PM » |
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So I've just received a phone-call with on offer from a sportsbook I use, place a £30 bet at more than evens and if it loses receive a free bet to the same value as the losing bet.
What's the correct +ev way to use this?
I would back something at a big price which is slightly under on betfair and lay it for a break even spot after commission. Massively likely to get the free bet then at no cost to you. Then use the free bet in the same manner and you have effectively been given £30 in cash for free whether it wins or loses if you like a no risk approach and just want to trouser £30 and have suitable funds to lay a 10/1 shot in bf for £300 liabability. If not then just have a bet for £30 which you were going to have anyway. If it loses and you get a free bet make sure you use the free bet on a biggish price. 10/1 or bigger. Don't back anything sub 10/1 with it. |
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« Last Edit: December 01, 2015, 04:10:28 PM by arbboy »
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superwomble
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« Reply #109708 on: December 01, 2015, 04:03:05 PM » |
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In case it's of use to Fred/anyone, I noticed today that WH are now doing 2nd place cashback on all races at one meeting per day this month, and not just on mobile. Southwell today so apologies if this is a bit late for anyone!
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BiloxiDesire
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« Reply #109709 on: December 01, 2015, 04:38:15 PM » |
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So I've just received a phone-call with on offer from a sportsbook I use, place a £30 bet at more than evens and if it loses receive a free bet to the same value as the losing bet.
What's the correct +ev way to use this?
I would back something at a big price which is slightly under on betfair and lay it for a break even spot after commission. Massively likely to get the free bet then at no cost to you. Then use the free bet in the same manner and you have effectively been given £30 in cash for free whether it wins or loses if you like a no risk approach and just want to trouser £30 and have suitable funds to lay a 10/1 shot in bf for £300 liabability. If not then just have a bet for £30 which you were going to have anyway. If it loses and you get a free bet make sure you use the free bet on a biggish price. 10/1 or bigger. Don't back anything sub 10/1 with it. Cheers arbboy, so looking at City v Hull tonight, I can back the draw on that sportsbook for 5.5, so £30 on that returns £165. I can then lay the draw on the exchange at 5.9, a liability of £154.74 gives me a return of £184.74 (£30 profit). So if it is a draw I've profited a shade over a tenner risk free, if it's not a draw then I've broke even but have got the £30 free bet, sound right? |
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