The Palmer bet has gone from plucky outsider to pushing for third to threatening for the scoop to possible bubble boy.
There are four guys separated by relatively little. Here's the table, going into the last weekend of the regular season:
1. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) 4,636
2. Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers) 4,564
3. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) 4,547
4. Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals) 4,542
So, that's 94 yards separating the top four. Next man down is three hundred behind, so it is three from these four for the places.
Who are they playing against?New England @ Miami Dolphins (6pm)
San Diego @ Denver Broncos (9.25pm)
New Orleans @ Atlanta Falcons (6pm)
Arizona v Seattle Seahawks (9.25pm)
Our man is the only one with a home game and, as two games will have finished when he kicks off, we will at least know the place money target.
How good are the pass defenses?In raw terms of yards allowed (average passing yards allowed per game):
Miami 258 (24th best)
Denver 199 (1st)
Atlanta 237 (15th)
Seattle 211 (2nd)
These stats need to be viewed in context: if you run the ball a lot and you're in a division of teams that run the ball a lot, you won't concede many passing yards. If you're in a pass first team and play pass first teams, you will concede a lot of passing yards, even if you defend well against the pass.
Analytics site Football Outsiders ranks the teams against the pass against how they should be expected to do on each play, given the opponent and the situation:
Miami 30th
Denver 1st
Atlanta 19th
Seattle 6th
So, on its face, we are thinking Brady wins and our best hope is Rivers struggling against Denver's defense.
What about the offenses?New England has been injury riddled on offense all year. Tom Brady is the only offensive player who has started all the games this season in the same position. He has been a little less effective in recent weeks, topping 300 only once in the last five games, including 226, 267 and 231 in the last three. Brady's job has been to win the games. Pure and simple. Miami are 30th against the run...
San Diego have also had injuries to their receivers and, like Brady, Rivers has tailed off a touch in recent weeks (averaging 264 per game over his last 8 games).
New Orleans have offensive weapons but are so bad on defense they simply have to score and score quickly to stay alive. Brees, with a plantar fascia tear in his foot, has thrown monster yards in the last three weeks (312, 341 and 412). He's chucking it and asking his receivers to make plays.
Palmer has had a finger injury but has been consistent in getting yards because of an embarrasment of offensive riches. The emergence of running back, David Johnson, means the opponents can't spread out to cover the pass and, even if they do, Palmer has quick guys going long and tall guys ten yards away, meaning players are rarely double marked. With a big running game compared to the others (roughly 50/50 pass and run), the weakness is Palmer gets fewer opportunities to get his yards than the others.
They've all played these teams already this season. How did they get on?Brady 356 v Miami
Rivers 202 v Denver
Brees 312 v Atlanta
Palmer 363 @ Seattle
Will they play this weekend?It's a serious question. The last weekend does see some players rested or understudies tried out in games that don't matter.
Palmer and Brady are in the playoffs and have secured a first round bye in their respective halves. This means they'll have a week off next week. This means they're likely to play this weekend, for at least some of the game. Arizona coach Bruce Arians has said he wants to keep the winning momentum going and two weeks off would risk losing that. Seattle defender Kam Chancellor has a tailbone injury which may keep him on the sidelines and their main running back isn't yet fit.
San Diego want to move to Los Angeles and may have played their last game in SD. There's no indication of anyone else starting but Rivers that I have seen. Drew Brees may be off in the summer but suggested he might stay last week. New Orleans are likely to start him if he's half fit.
Just because they start, doesn't mean they'll finish. Expect half or three quarters if the game is over.
MatchupsThe closer the game, the more likely the top QB will be needed on the field. No one wants to lose.
New England are 10 point favourites
San Diego are 9.5 point underdogs
New Orleans are 5.5 point underdogs
Arizona are 6.5 point favourites
What's realistic for our man?Anything is possible. Brady is obviously favourite here and it's tough to see him not getting the 200 yards he'd need to lock up a top three spot. All four will start if fit. 4,800 gets a place. 4,750 may well do.
If we bubble - pure bubble - that'd be a tough pill to swallow. Whilst we are fourth now, the Rivers situation, just 22 yards ahead, must make him favourite for fourth.
Whatever happens, it's been one of my favourite bets.
Good luck us.
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