Tips for Tikay

[pleno1]

Liverpool 16/5 -1 vs Palace away? What do we think?

[RickBFA]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

Really appreciate them Matty, keep them coming, auto bets for me.

[maldini32]

What do people think about Bangladesh at 20/1 to reach the T20 world cup final?

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/to-reach-final

They have just beaten Sri Lanka and Pakistan and the good thing about being in the group with India (who they lost against in the Asia Cup) is that they avoid them until the final should they both go through the group.

Yes Bangladesh to have to play the pre-qualifying group but are 3/10 to win that. Should they come through that they will have had three extra matches to get settled into the tournament in a format that international teams play very little of and you'd already think they would be more adept to the conditions than some of the players in other squads who haven't had much experience on the Indian subcontinent.

It is a short competition so the variance is on our side, they would likely need to win three games in the group and then the semi. Clearly there are more talented sides in the tournament but I think I like the price.

What do other people think?

I think its a horrible group to get out of though

India you assume take one of the two places. Aus/Pak/NZ/Bang(probably) and only one to qualify.

by far the tougher group and whilst i would regard Bangladesh as a dangerous side in the tournament the price reflects thats its a crap shoot to qualify. They are going to have to beat probably three of the top 8 sides to qualify and thats why the price is where it is 

I like Bangladesh and I'm on at 40's ew.

Pakistan are all over the joint, they don't have a top 3 and they can't expect their bowling to save the day every match. Huge uproar after the pathetic performance in Asia cup, it's been coming for a while though. Australia have absolutely no form atm, I still have reservations about them v spin. They bowling is the weakest it's been a while and the batting is a bit lost atm. New Zealand are interesting, first tournament without B Mac and a lot of responsibility on Williamson & Guptill on the batting front and Boult /Southee in the bowling.

Bangladesh are still hugely underrated imo, they have a very balanced side, bat deep and have good options with the ball. Mustafizur Rahman is an absolute star gone are the days when they relied on Shakib. Comfortable with the conditions and in very good form going into this.

[MattyHollis]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

Really appreciate them Matty, keep them coming, auto bets for me.

Not anymore!

Awful night (for winners).

[Marky147]

Unlucky Matty.

Keep firing them up though!

[RickBFA]

Lol bet what you like, I'll just put them up for those who care to read them - on the greyhound thread. I take bits and pieces off this thread so like to add rather than lurk. I tell you my equivalent stakes on the dogs I literally bet them all myself too(a bit bigger).

Appreciate the point about 120/125 returning SP however I do generally put the betfair sp up when I mention how the bet goes on. I'll be shocked if there are many over betfair SP over time.

Really appreciate them Matty, keep them coming, auto bets for me.

Not anymore!

Awful night (for winners).

Lol 

[vegaslover]

Liverpool 16/5 -1 vs Palace away? What do we think?

Liverpool got a shyte record against Palace. Palace speed always seems to destroy the Liverpool defence

[baldock92]

Is it worth laying Chelsea today with the idea that they have an important champions league tie midweek, followed by the fa cup quarter finals next week against Everton? They're being backed at 8/15 best price.

[Doobs]

Liverpool 16/5 -1 vs Palace away? What do we think?

Palace are a lower mid table side, Liverpool a higher mid table side.  Knowing nothing else then you'd expect the prices of both to be about the same if Palace have home advantage.  Maybe 7/4 each?  But when I look Liverpool are way shorter at 13/11 best.  I think the issue here is that you may well be right and Palace's form is tailing off, but you have picked the wrong match.  Liverpool are pretty much always backed as if they are a top 4 side, so you aren't ever likely to get much value by backing them.  I assume the 16/5 -1 is just a derived price from the main Liverpool price (which looks a bit short).  So unless we have some evidence that Liverpool are more likely to win by two than the average side at this price then I can't see that price as value either. 

I'd probably just wait a game and lay Palace or back the opposition in that game.  Or alternatively look at Chelsea/Stoke.

[TightEnd]

no bets completed yesterday

one piece of activity on our bets

Roma 4-1 Fiorentina

Roma are 3rd, 5 points behind Juve

--

Nico Rosberg: "We know it is close but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind" http://skysports.tv/PMEszc  

--

So, it turns out Ferrari might have caught up after all... http://bbc.in/1RMQmuI 

Vettel is 11/2 in a spot, still

[exstream]

Why are top of the table Leicester such a big price

[Doobs]

Is it worth laying Chelsea today with the idea that they have an important champions league tie midweek, followed by the fa cup quarter finals next week against Everton? They're being backed at 8/15 best price.

Seems sensible to me. Chelsea are improving, but they seem very short against a solid mid table side.  They seem to be still shortening, Stoke 7.6 on Betfair or 13/2 with Victor too.  I wouldn't want to lay that.

[nellberg]

Not for Fred, but for anyone who's got a account and wants a cricket sweat. India to win Group 2 in the upcoming World T20 at  7/4.

They are only 9/4 to win the whole thing, will have home advantage, won 8/9 games in this format in the last few months. Other bookies have them a lot shorter for the market (11/8). They have the tougher group on paper but Aussies are over-rated in this format, New Zealand won't be the force they were at the 50-over WC last year where they had conditions in their favour and the retirement of B-Mac is also a big blow. Pakistan are all over the place at the moment, even if they sort out their batting their spin bowling surprisingly looks a weakness and while Bangladesh have improved, they shouldn't have the consistency to top the group.

Short format, high variance, only 4 group games for each team etc means it's not max bet material, but the price is certainly in our favour.

www.oddschecker.com/cricket/t20-world-cup/twenty20-world-cup/group-2-winner

[tikay]

no bets completed yesterday

one piece of activity on our bets

Roma 4-1 Fiorentina

Roma are 3rd, 5 points behind Juve

--

Nico Rosberg: "We know it is close but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind" http://skysports.tv/PMEszc  

--

So, it turns out Ferrari might have caught up after all... http://bbc.in/1RMQmuI  

Vettel is 11/2 in a spot, still

You have mentioned Ferrari & Vettel several times, Tighty.

Is there a way we can get with them/him which affords us some value, & a season long sweat? If so, let's consider it. Peter will be along with a raft of season bets soon I expect, & it'd be good to build a little F1 2016 book.

Nirvana loves the sheer excitement of F1, too, he may have some suggestions.

[TightEnd]

no bets completed yesterday

one piece of activity on our bets

Roma 4-1 Fiorentina

Roma are 3rd, 5 points behind Juve

--

Nico Rosberg: "We know it is close but we are not sure if we are ahead or behind" http://skysports.tv/PMEszc 

--

So, it turns out Ferrari might have caught up after all... http://bbc.in/1RMQmuI 

Vettel is 11/2 in a spot, still

You have mentioned Ferrari & Vettel several times, Tighty.

Is there a way we can get with them/him which affords us some value, & a season long sweat? If so, let's consider it. Peter will be along with a raft of season bets soon I expect, & it'd be good to build a little F1 2016 book.

Nirvana loves the sheer excitement of F1, too, he may have some suggestions.

We're on Rosberg

I expect Peter will say that we shouldn't do anything with Vettel as he expects Mercedes to dominate again. I just pop up the links for discussion

there are no sub-markets up yet, i have been looking every day. For example driver match bets wbhere we did well last year

I also wanted to look at possible markets ex-mercedes/ferrari. i had in mind that a team might overtake williams and be consistently third quickest.