Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

the world snooker championship begins tomorrow

i have written it up elsewhere for later but a couple of ideas for here

1 The fourth quarter

Allen v Mann
Perry v Wilson
White v Baird
Selby v Mlkins

4th Qtr prices are

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/4th-quarter-winner

Qualification took place over the last week and was live streamed on worldsnooker's you tube page. I watched slugs of it on a second screen as i worked, in part because i wanted to back some 1st round underdogs over the next few days. (basic premise, depth of talent in the sport is greater, even the top players don't play much best of 19 snooker, the qualifiers all have to play three best of 19s to make it, will be tuned up and some seeds may be caught cold)

depth of talent - the 16 qualifiers include two world champions, 5 ranking event winners and the likes of Ding and Liang (who finalled the UK). not many easy draws for the seeds this year, certainly compared to a decade ago

Anyway Kyren Wilson (won shanghai earlier in the season his first ranking event) played Matthew Stevens in Rd 3Q, and beat him 10-6 with the best performance i saw in Q especially as Matthew was really really trying which hasn't always been the case in his career (he was declared bankrupt six months ago, needed to qualify badly £13k for making the crucible, potential route back to top 16 etc)

the fourth quarter is interesting

Selby has withdrawn from the last two tournaments (Manchester, China) with undisclosed personal issues. He's going to be fully prepared for this? Not sure, and even with his unorthodox technique he's had some technical problems (cutting across balls on long pots) this season. A measure of the doubts around Selby are that he is 10-1 for this tournament, having been champion 2 years ago.

Allen is second favourite in the quarter and recently won his first ranking event in the UK. I think i would have him favourite over this version of Selby in the quarter but definitely beatable with some temperament issues when it doesn't go his way

Wlson has drawn Joe Perry, who typically does well at the Crucible (often salvaging disappointing seasons) but its going to be tight. Wilson is a very marginal dog to Perry in the betting. If he replicates his qualifying form, i would have him favourite. 

White just about remained in the top 16 after a poor season. Not much difference between him ranked 15th and Wilson 19th

Milkins, Baird, debutant Mann shouldn't win the quarter

If we accept that Selby has issues and can be opposed at 5/4 to win the quarter the obvious place to start is Allen at 5/2 but Wilson at 10-1 really stands out. Seriously impressive young player in a wide open quarter

Recommend £10 at 10-1 Kyren Wilson to win the 4th Qtr Sportingbet


 
2 Stuart Bingham begins his defence against Ali Carter. Carter is 13/8 to beat Bingham and has a decent shot of doing so imo

This season Carter has hit 23 centuries. in three rounds of qualifying he hit 5 centuries (47 frames total)

Those 23 centuries are one every 14-15 frames (Bingham for reference 1 century every 24 frames this season)

This should be 10-7 or 10-8 either way. shouldn't be one sided, certainly 15 frames +

Bet365 offer us (well not TfT unless someone helps) Evens over 0.5 centuries tomorrow Carter

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/stuart-bingham-v-ali-carter/total-ali-carter-centuries

an alternative if we can't get that would be sportingbet 11/10 +1.5 total match centuries

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/stuart-bingham-v-ali-carter/total-centuries

Recommend £50 over 0.5 centuries Carter Evens Bet365 or if we can't
Recommend £35 over 1.5 match centuries 11/10 Sportingbet

Pretty good read there Tighty, you said it would be close, and Bingham - Carter is currently 9-9.

Even better, Carter made a 102 break to square it up at 9-9.

Think the over 1.5 centuries in the match is down though, unless there is one in the 19th frame.

[tikay]

Correction - think that was the 2nd century of the match.

Can't remember what we backed, but you tipped 2 nice winners there.

[Peter-27]

Tighty, I can't seem to copy from the master spreadsheet any more which makes it so much harder for me to track my TFT performance. Did you intentionally stop copying? If not, can we re-enable that option please?

[tikay]

Not sure if anyone is online right now, but there's a spread bet I'm going to do:

S.Vettel/K.Raikkonen - buy @ 1.5.

Traditionally, Sebastian is the quicker driver for Ferrari, however, Kimi has been consistently quicker so far this weekend, and

Online, pot of tea made, ready to watch a good race.

[Peter-27]

Not sure if anyone is online right now, but there's a spread bet I'm going to do:

S.Vettel/K.Raikkonen - buy @ 1.5.

Traditionally, Sebastian is the quicker driver for Ferrari, however, Kimi has been consistently quicker so far this weekend, and

Online, pot of tea made, ready to watch a good race.

I was on the fence about that bet, and posted it too soon by accident. Decided against it. Enjoy the race, we're in for a cracker

I've gone for an apple juice strategy by the way 

[MereNovice]

Tighty, I can't seem to copy from the master spreadsheet any more which makes it so much harder for me to track my TFT performance. Did you intentionally stop copying? If not, can we re-enable that option please?

I don't think that anything has changed with regards to access of the spreadsheet.
Sometimes it is slow to load which means that some of the functionality isn't available until it is fully loaded.

Have another look and let me know if the problem persists.
Also, you can always PM/e-mail me and I can provide you with anything you need to know about your bets.

[DropTheHammer]

Very exciting race so far - Perez is smashing through the field, up to 5th...

[Peter-27]

Very exciting race so far - Perez is smashing through the field, up to 5th...

This has never happened before, but ALL my bets lost today. Sorry guys. Exciting race, but absolute mayhem 

[TightEnd]

in stages today

Yesterday

-£182.50

+£58.5 on the Carter/Bingham match, centuries bets

-£65 0 for 4 on the China GP including Perez finishing 11th

Ante post

-£100 Sunderland to finish bottom. Sunderlands win yesterday and Villa's lost made this impossible

-£75 QPR to be promoted


month to date -£551.91 with a hole from ante post losers beign settled and an absence of short term winners


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=23

[TightEnd]

Aguero's hat-trick gives us a couple of golden boot sweats

we have 11/8 Kane top English goalscorer and 3/1 Aguero golden boot

[TightEnd]

two penalty saves from Gomes gave Watford a win and another three points profit for our season spread bet



We have £40 Norwich 6/4 to be relegated and a whopping £200 Sunderland 9/4 to be relegated

Now would be the time for Newcastle to go on a run




meanwhile....skybet were quick off the mark



and not a good year to be relegated

[TightEnd]

Leeds won and Preston drew, thanks to the MK Dons outfield player Revell saving a Garner penalty

our spread bet has Leeds +3.5 points over Preston



we are 20 points down the well shouting up for a rope on the Charlton spread bet

[TightEnd]

Wigan's loss tightened up the title race in league one



at the other end Bury won and Cesterfield lost very good news for the Bury v Chesterfield points bet

Peterborough won but as we need them to finish top 5, top 12 and bottom 12 i never know what is a good result or not



Grigg scored his 16th in 16 games

now one behind Ajose for L1 Golden boot

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/league-one/top-scorers

[TightEnd]

league two, just about in the hunt for cambridge to finish top 7

[TightEnd]

Martial found himself on the bench yesterday

Martial 8
Rooney 7 and back from injury
Mata 5
Rashford 4

5 games to go

Manchester United top goalscorer   martial   11/8   80


meanwhile, who would have expected 0 league goals this season for this bet...

top chelsea scorer   hazard   9/2   30