Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

A few cracking posts ^^.

Arb, take your points, but this is another case where you're too black and white on punting matters imo. Whatever suits the individual is right.

The Speith US open bet was placed purely as a back to lay, so the amount dropped on the lay side is kind of irrelevant. At various stages through that tournament he looked like losing too; can't quote any prices here but would guess he hit double figures more than once.

Same deal with Burton. Obv the covers now look bad bets but, when struck, 4-5 beat the machine price and was too big for a team with so many points in hand. Why can't these bets be looked at as building as a portfolio rather than cover bets?

We're now in a no-lose position thanks to backing a 1-6 shot at 8-1 down through 9-2.

Either let everything ride, green everything, freeroll everything, or mix and match. Don't see why it shouldn't be up to the individual.

Nobody would criticise you for letting the Sunderland bet ride, even though you could have got out at a very short price.

I agree.  Everyone has their own risk profile.  The bottom line is though greening up generally costs you money.  It is not the optimal strategy financially.  I am not saying you, or anyone else, shouldn't do it.  Each to their own.  Green up merchants create opportunities constantly for savvy gamblers to profit from.  If these spots create profits for savvy pros to pick you off guess who is paying for their winning ev?  Correct the green up merchants giving it away.

You can build a portfolio for sure but the £300 at 4/5 on Burton was never a bet that had a suitable edge to be investing that type of money into even if it was 'under' on the machine.  Not saying it wasn't a bet but it clearly didn't have a big enough edge to justify having that big a % of your roll on it.  The only reason you did was to smooth variance.  This generally costs you money long term just like buying insurance does for your toaster/microwave from Curry's.  I am not saying this is a bad thing.  You are more risk averse than me and are willing to pay a premium to reduce risk short term to smooth your earnings.

The other issue is if you have had £200 on wigan at 6/1 then they totally fall away and they are 100/1 rags 3 months later and Burton are in exactly the same spot with another team in 2nd instead do you still have the £300 at 4/5 to build a portfolio when you have a LOSING portfolio currently?  Or are you only interested in building portfolios when you are currently in a WINNING situation?  ie to lock in?  Are you having the same bets to lock in losses which are 'under' on bf for the same stakes?  This is where i think your theory falls down because i have no evidence of you ever doing this.  It makes me think you simply build portfolio's from winning positions only.  Therefore to smooth earnings/profits short term.

To go back to the earlier example you probably would back tails at 10/11 for a little bit if you could get 6/4 heads where as i wouldn't.  Again each to their own.  One is just more optimal than the other but comes with increased variance.

[fatcatstu]

I feel a bit responsible for all this stuff that is happening now, so sorry it wasnt my intention!

I am VERY much a rec better, I dont bet all the time, I just like a flutter now and again, particularly on NFL which I do alright on.

Have been following this thread for about a year now, and very much enjoy doing so.

I am well up for learning, but must confess that some of the stuff posted by the very knowledgable people on here goes flying well over my head!!!

I understand that it must be massively frustrating for the Pros on here who know what they are doing and have the likes of me bumbling about and being wrong most of the time, all I want is someone to tell me WHY I am talking gibberish, and sometimes that could be done in a kinder way.

Anyway, I have followed the tennis bet today, so I apologise in advance if Monfils loses, and will fully take the blame if he does!

My apologies for speaking to you how i did.  It wasn't called for.  I was just keen to lay Boro at 1/3 before they went off 2/5 that was all.  I like a bullish supporter who likes to bet their own team when i want to oppose them.  You sounded like you might be interested in having a chunk on them at 1/3.  Starting stuff like this off is good for the viewing figures so don't worry about that!  

No problem, these things happen! I should really be paying more attention to what you say, although i WILL be asking you to translate some of your posts, which I would imagine will get annoying for you

[teddybloat]

facinating discussions.

i am enjoying trying to decipher it.

thanks for taking the time to theorise here all

[nirvana]

A few cracking posts today.

Arb, take your points, but this is another case where you're too black and white on punting matters imo. Whatever suits the individual is right.

The Speith US open bet was placed purely as a back to lay, so the amount dropped on the lay side is kind of irrelevant. At various stages through that tournament he looked like losing too; can't quote any prices here but would guess he hit double figures more than once.

Same deal with Burton. Obv the covers now look bad bets but, when struck, 4-5 beat the machine price and was too big for a team with so many points in hand. Why can't these bets be looked at as building as a portfolio rather than cover bets?

We're now in a no-lose position thanks to backing a 1-6 shot at 8-1 down through 9-2.

Either let everything ride, green everything, freeroll everything, or mix and match. Don't see why it shouldn't be up to the individual.

Nobody would criticise you for letting the Sunderland bet ride, even though you could have got out at a very short price.

The best thing about Arb is he doesn't get obsessed with his own personal P & L in the spreadsheet.

You, on the other hand......

[Chompy]

A few cracking posts today.

Arb, take your points, but this is another case where you're too black and white on punting matters imo. Whatever suits the individual is right.

The Speith US open bet was placed purely as a back to lay, so the amount dropped on the lay side is kind of irrelevant. At various stages through that tournament he looked like losing too; can't quote any prices here but would guess he hit double figures more than once.

Same deal with Burton. Obv the covers now look bad bets but, when struck, 4-5 beat the machine price and was too big for a team with so many points in hand. Why can't these bets be looked at as building as a portfolio rather than cover bets?

We're now in a no-lose position thanks to backing a 1-6 shot at 8-1 down through 9-2.

Either let everything ride, green everything, freeroll everything, or mix and match. Don't see why it shouldn't be up to the individual.

Nobody would criticise you for letting the Sunderland bet ride, even though you could have got out at a very short price.

The best thing about Arb is he doesn't get obsessed with his own personal P & L in the spreadsheet.

You, on the other hand......

Never in doubt the trolls would be out from under their bridges before long.

[tikay]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

Recommendation with the bet proposer really, arbboy.

all other views of course welcome

You'd find a way to back tails @ 10/11 if you'd managed to grab some heads @ 6/4.  Seems as good a way of describing it as any for me.  

It's all 2012 all over again and the basics of successful punting we have been through a zillion times before which were ironed out in the first few months of fred.  Won't get angry this time about going over the old ground again and again.  It does get a bit tedious listening to people suggesting to make the same mistakes time and time again but i will try and button my lip.

If someone else wants to back Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up for fred go for it.  Makes no difference what happened last summer when i put up Sunderland at 9/4 to go down.  If people think there are a bet stick it up.  Pretty sure without my £200 sitting on the spreadsheet there wouldn't be any discussion at all of backing Sunderland at 5/4 to stay up this morning.  Nobody thinks 5/4 is a wrong price and gives us any edge to invest in yet people think we should be having our biggest bet of the month on this?

We have 2% of bankroll on Sunderland to go down and 2% of our bankroll on Wigan to win the league.  These are not 'whopping' sized bets.  They are totally normal sized bets for our bankroll.   There is no need to 'loltrade/give it away' whatever you want to call it.  2% of bankroll bets are just standard strong bets where we have a decent edge.  If everyone else bet within proper bankroll amounts then these bets wouldn't be causing such huge 'pressure' on the monthly results to even need to be discussing 'loltrading' them away.

I have said all this before though and is the reason why i don't put up bets anymore because, by principle, i won't bet 'wrong' amounts but it just adds too much pressure to everyone's obsession with making a profit each and every month.  We shouldn't be making a profit every month based on our tiny sample of bets every month if we are staking properly.  There should be months where we are doing our nuts.  We only historically have a 5% edge.  I doubt the edge is that big any more given the more recreational basis (most of the original fred pro's don't post now before someone posts that i think everyone left are lolmugs) of the vast majority of the betting turnover compared to the early days and the fact it is harder getting on at the best price/reduction in number of accounts we have available.

1 person made a suggestion to reverse the Sunderland bet, and we want people to make suggestions. Reviewing & discussing those suggestions is how we learn. There should be no reason why people should not ask questions, or think out loud, it's good for everyone.

We don't have an obsession with short term profits, & never have. The monthly numbers are what oils the wheels of conversation, discussion & keeping people interested & motivated, & is a hook for the Daily & Monthly Reports, which the vast number of readers really enjoy. No more, no less. Standard social skills.

"wrong amounts", as in tiddlearse? That won't change. It's supposed to be an inclusive fun thread, where we have a little fun & make a few shillings as we go along. The vast majority of our regulars here would not stick up bets if they thought that on their say so, I was going to be risking what are, by the standards of most of us, "whopping" bets. People like, say hector, & many others, would simply stop placing Recommends up, they just would. The occasional "big" bet is fine, but I simply don't want to be betting bigger on a regular basis, no matter what the bankroll is. I'm not a pro punter, & I'm not addicted to punting. Just wanna have some fun along the way, enjoy the bants, & help the blonde traffic numbers.  

If someone else wants to take over the thread, so that bets can be made for the theoretical "correct" amounts, that's 100% fine by me, & I mean that, I would wish them well.

Alternatively, you, or anyone else, can start their own punting thread, Tips for Big Boys, & I'm sure it would be very popular. It won't happen though, because it lacks the essence of what we try to do here - just recreational guys having some fun.

Please remember something. I quit punting in around 2002, having punted every day for some 35 years, & had never bet again, not once, until Camel started this thread. I was addicted to punting, which was a bad, bad, thing. When Camel suggested the thread, I was filled with horror & fear that I'd become addicted again to punting. It scares the life out of me, the fear of being addicted to it. I simply don't want punting addiction in my life again. Can you not see what a big thing that fear is to me? I have an addictive personality, & I don't want to go down that road again in the autumn of my life, I just want to go along carefree & happy.

The amounts that others bet is fine by me. You know, "live & let live". I won't be berating them or mocking them.  

I, & many others, really enjoy the thread, & bets of £20, £30 & £40 are still great fun, they tick our boxes for "fun". And I don't mind occasional "whoppers", especially long term ones from good pros & wiser souls than me. But I'm never going to be betting the "correct" size for our bankroll, & nobody is going to pressurise me into doing so. We'd best realise this now.

Let's start where this reply began - ONE person made a suggestion. He, or anyone else, is entitled to make any suggestion.

Sure i totally get the addictive personality.  I have the same across all forms of life.  I wouldn't want to see you get addicted to punting again.  

The problem i have is everyone wanting to learn/reduce mistakes from punting/greening up/bankroll management/stake sizing which is great and a lot of people have done this over the past 4 years.  However fred keeps making the same mistakes regarding most of these so the education seems pointless if we are not going to actually carry it out in practice with our real bets/greening up/stake sizing.  People rightly will say 'why are we doing this if the correct professional way to do things is a different way?'

It would be like on PHA starting a thread saying 'i am getting implied odds of 3/1 to hit the nut flush on the river?  Should i call his all in?  There is £300 in the middle and it is £100 for me to call and hit my flush with the river card to come.  If i hit i win.  I am getting 3/1?  Call or fold?  Pads comes on and says 'obviously it is a fold because you are taking 3/1 about a 9/2 shot happening, easy fold you are setting fire to £x every time you call this shove'.  Then the guy goes ahead and makes the call anyway after receiving the expert advice from a pro he was asking for.  Pads probably won't be too keen to invest his time advising the guy in the future if his advice is going to be ignored because the guy had a feeling or fancied a spin.

I can't begin to imagine how something as trivial as a fun forum thread makes you so angry, but that's none of my business.

Fred keeps making the same mistakes?

You see, here's the problem.

Chompy thinks differently to you. He's very successful.

You think differently to Chompy. You are very successful.

Do you see where this is going? Try to accommodate those 2 thoughts. You run at the same problem in different ways. And you are both successful.

So alternate views - to yours - are not always wrong (or right) just because you do it differently.

Not everything in life - in fact very little - is black & white, stop or go, right or wrong.

We are all different, we are all unique individuals. I actually love the notion of each to their own. 

[arbboy]

A few cracking posts ^^.

Arb, take your points, but this is another case where you're too black and white on punting matters imo. Whatever suits the individual is right.

The Speith US open bet was placed purely as a back to lay, so the amount dropped on the lay side is kind of irrelevant. At various stages through that tournament he looked like losing too; can't quote any prices here but would guess he hit double figures more than once.

Same deal with Burton. Obv the covers now look bad bets but, when struck, 4-5 beat the machine price and was too big for a team with so many points in hand. Why can't these bets be looked at as building as a portfolio rather than cover bets?

We're now in a no-lose position thanks to backing a 1-6 shot at 8-1 down through 9-2.

Either let everything ride, green everything, freeroll everything, or mix and match. Don't see why it shouldn't be up to the individual.

Nobody would criticise you for letting the Sunderland bet ride, even though you could have got out at a very short price.

I agree.  Everyone has their own risk profile.  The bottom line is though greening up generally costs you money.  It is not the optimal strategy financially.  I am not saying you, or anyone else, shouldn't do it.  Each to their own.  Green up merchants create opportunities constantly for savvy gamblers to profit from.  If these spots create profits for savvy pros to pick you off guess who is paying for their winning ev?  Correct the green up merchants giving it away.

You can build a portfolio for sure but the £300 at 4/5 on Burton was never a bet that had a suitable edge to be investing that type of money into even if it was 'under' on the machine.  Not saying it wasn't a bet but it clearly didn't have a big enough edge to justify having that big a % of your roll on it.  The only reason you did was to smooth variance.  This generally costs you money long term just like buying insurance does for your toaster/microwave from Curry's.  I am not saying this is a bad thing.  You are more risk averse than me and are willing to pay a premium to reduce risk short term to smooth your earnings.

The other issue is if you have had £200 on wigan at 6/1 then they totally fall away and they are 100/1 rags 3 months later and Burton are in exactly the same spot with another team in 2nd instead do you still have the £300 at 4/5 to build a portfolio when you have a LOSING portfolio currently?  Or are you only interested in building portfolios when you are currently in a WINNING situation?  ie to lock in?  Are you having the same bets to lock in losses which are 'under' on bf for the same stakes?  This is where i think your theory falls down because i have no evidence of you ever doing this.  It makes me think you simply build portfolio's from winning positions only.  Therefore to smooth earnings/profits short term.

To go back to the earlier example you probably would back tails at 10/11 for a little bit if you could get 6/4 heads where as i wouldn't.  Again each to their own.  One is just more optimal than the other but comes with increased variance.

Are you doing this Lord Chomps?  You didn't answer my question.

[Chompy]

Aah, missed that. No probably not. Take your point.

Also, I defo would take 10-11 tails if I'd got 6-4 heads. To cover the original stake and ensure a no-losser. Have never seen a problem with that.

[Tal]

You know what grinds my gears?

Those flipping clappers the Leicester fans have.



Reminds me of the vuvuzelas from the 2010 World Cup.

Click to see full-size image.

Or this Portsmouth fan and his bell:

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

Aah, missed that. No probably not. Take your point.

Also, I defo would take 10-11 tails if I'd got 6-4 heads. To cover the original stake and ensure a no-losser. Have never seen a problem with that.

Never go skint laying a short one, never go skint taking a profit!!!   The old ones are the best!  There is nothing 'wrong' with it per se.  It comes down to risk profile.  Arbers would happily take 8/11 tails in that situation who are totally risk averse and just want risk free money.  Problem is arbers just give away 75% of the 'profit' they have made getting 6/4 to pros getting 11/8 about a coin flip.

[Peter-27]

Tighty, I can't seem to copy from the master spreadsheet any more which makes it so much harder for me to track my TFT performance. Did you intentionally stop copying? If not, can we re-enable that option please?

I don't think that anything has changed with regards to access of the spreadsheet.
Sometimes it is slow to load which means that some of the functionality isn't available until it is fully loaded.

Have another look and let me know if the problem persists.
Also, you can always PM/e-mail me and I can provide you with anything you need to know about your bets.

Still happening:

Click to see full-size image.

[Nakor]

You know what grinds my gears?

Those flipping clappers the Leicester fans have.



Reminds me of the vuvuzelas from the 2010 World Cup.

Click to see full-size image.

Or this Portsmouth fan and his bell:

Click to see full-size image.

Norwich have been using the clappers for "big games" for about three seasons and in ground they do create a much better atmosphere.  There are very few periods of silence, and it is close to a natural football sound, on TV less so it seems. 

[Peter-27]

I liked the vuvuzelas. Although that was mainly because they annoyed everyone and I found it funny .. 

[TightEnd]

the clappers have been a brainwave. didn't likenthem at first and don't do it myself but it really gets the atmosphere going. never a lull in the support because of them

much more natural than a vuvuzela, as it is as the clapping name implies

[superwomble]

Wigan and Burton bets

league one    wigan   8/1   50
League One handicap   wigan +2   18/1   20
league one    wigan   8/1   100   £50 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
league one    wigan   6/1   50   £25 e/w 1/5 1,2,3
league one    burton   4/5   100      
league one   burton   4/5   200      
league one wigan   9/2   100   £50 e/w 1/3 1,2
league one top goalscorer   grigg   11/2   50 £25 e/w 1/3 1,2
league one and national league   wigan and grimsby   22.81-1   50   £25 e/w double 1/4 1,2,3

(grimsby are 4th with a game in hand)

tikay is a wigan fan


Peterborough bets

league one top six finish   peterborough   9/2   88
league one top six finish   peterborough   4/1   12
Top 6 Finish 2015/16   lay Peterborough   2.28   108   £85 lay
peterborough league one finishing position   buy at 5   5   100   £20 a point at 5

Chesterfield bets

league one relegation   chesterfield   8/1   50
league one relegation   chesterfield   7/1   50
league one relegation   chesterfield   3.25   225   £100 LAY
bury v chesterfield season match bet   bury   8/11   144   £110 via chompy

a big month ahead.....

I went to Crabble yesterday to see Dover v Grimsby. Grimsby will have left thinking themselves lucky to have got a point. Dover had them on the rack most of the game and somehow the ref missed two goal line handballs by Grimsby players. Play-off places going down to the wire!