Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

http://www.margate-fc.co.uk/teams/114859/match-centre/1-1588199

10th straight defeat for Margate yesterday

deep in trouble now

http://www.margate-fc.co.uk/teams/114859/league-table

At home to Hemel this weekend anything odds against would be a bet as Hemel need to keep winning to maintainplay off place

[sonour]

Aah, missed that. No probably not. Take your point.

Also, I defo would take 10-11 tails if I'd got 6-4 heads. To cover the original stake and ensure a no-losser. Have never seen a problem with that.

Never go skint laying a short one, never go skint taking a profit!!!   The old ones are the best!  There is nothing 'wrong' with it per se.  It comes down to risk profile.  Arbers would happily take 8/11 tails in that situation who are totally risk averse and just want risk free money.  Problem is arbers just give away 75% of the 'profit' they have made getting 6/4 to pros getting 11/8 about a coin flip.

Arb,

If we could 6/4 heads, just say your maximum bet would be £10,000.

It would be better to bet £20,000 at 6/4 then bet £10,000 on tails at 10/11.

[Dekka]

With Sunderland looking the most likely of the three teams to stay up, is it worth laying back our £200 at 1.8 on Betfair?

We are all different, we are all unique individuals. I actually love the notion of each to their own.  

I'm not

[MattyHollis]

Some great posts Arb - as per my initial questioning of the Burton 'cover' bet some time ago, just you made the point/explanation a bit better than I did

[arbboy]

Aah, missed that. No probably not. Take your point.

Also, I defo would take 10-11 tails if I'd got 6-4 heads. To cover the original stake and ensure a no-losser. Have never seen a problem with that.

Never go skint laying a short one, never go skint taking a profit!!!   The old ones are the best!  There is nothing 'wrong' with it per se.  It comes down to risk profile.  Arbers would happily take 8/11 tails in that situation who are totally risk averse and just want risk free money.  Problem is arbers just give away 75% of the 'profit' they have made getting 6/4 to pros getting 11/8 about a coin flip.

Arb,

If we could 6/4 heads, just say your maximum bet would be £10,000.

It would be better to bet £20,000 at 6/4 then bet £10,000 on tails at 10/11.

Course i was waiting for this question.  The reality is you are never getting £20k at 6/4 on a flip though in reality in 2016.  In theory yes you make more actual cash and get a better price doing that.   If you do this subsequently after predicting the market will move then you are not 'arbing' you are punting on the market going your way which it might not then you are left over exposed.  There is no chance you will ever have this situation in 2016 at the same time. 

[Chompy]

Burton bet was fine. Thought it was right at the time.

[arbboy]

Burton bet was fine. Thought it was right at the time.

But you wouldn't have had the bet if Walsall had been 2nd and Wigan were tailed off in the same circumstances?  So as a stand alone bet it wouldn't have even been a bet in all circumstances.  Therefore it must be a bad bet surely? 

[Chompy]

Nope.

[sonour]

Aah, missed that. No probably not. Take your point.

Also, I defo would take 10-11 tails if I'd got 6-4 heads. To cover the original stake and ensure a no-losser. Have never seen a problem with that.

Never go skint laying a short one, never go skint taking a profit!!!   The old ones are the best!  There is nothing 'wrong' with it per se.  It comes down to risk profile.  Arbers would happily take 8/11 tails in that situation who are totally risk averse and just want risk free money.  Problem is arbers just give away 75% of the 'profit' they have made getting 6/4 to pros getting 11/8 about a coin flip.

Arb,

If we could 6/4 heads, just say your maximum bet would be £10,000.

It would be better to bet £20,000 at 6/4 then bet £10,000 on tails at 10/11.

Course i was waiting for this question.  The reality is you are never getting £20k at 6/4 on a flip though in reality in 2016.  In theory yes you make more actual cash and get a better price doing that.   If you do this subsequently after predicting the market will move then you are not 'arbing' you are punting on the market going your way which it might not then you are left over exposed.  There is no chance you will ever have this situation in 2016 at the same time. 

Ok, so if the amount you can get on exceeds the amount you are comfortable betting.

I can frequently get on a lot more than I'm comfortable betting and lay the rest back to make a bit more than just betting my maximum bet.

[TightEnd]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

[arbboy]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

Can't have that if Ebdon got through qualifiers and just gets blown away in the first round like he did. Standard definitely isn't higher.  I agree with your point the top boys are just out of practice playing long games over the season and the whole snooker circuit is just a glorified shoot out now in most events.  Total turn off especially at the UK open best of 7 games with 4 tables at a time running in the arena.  Hearn has definitely devalued the product for me across the season.

The product being a mass of shootout style tournements means more and more quality players are not seeded where they should be on talent.  That has fucked up the draw this year.  2 year rolling money list in line with darts has meant any world champion will be auto ranked in the top 2 or 3 until his 2 year roll is over.  Even a shock world finalist will prob be top 16 for the whole of that period as well.  Compared to the old ranking system this would never have happened.

[Karabiner]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

I'd say that there's just as much chance that a player is a little tired after playing three best-of-19 matches in the ten days prior to the first round.

Having said that I quite fancy Graeme Dott's chances versus Mark Williams. This is not a recommend but I would have made him a bet @6/4.

[TightEnd]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

Can't have that if Ebdon got through qualifiers and just gets blown away in the first round like he did. Standard definitely isn't higher.  I agree with your point the top boys are just out of practice playing long games over the season and the whole snooker circuit is just a glorified shoot out now in most events.  Total turn off especially at the UK open best of 7 games with 4 tables at a time running in the arena.  Hearn has definitely devalued the product for me across the season.

The product being a mass of shootout style tournements means more and more quality players are not seeded where they should be on talent.  That has fucked up the draw this year.  2 year rolling money list in line with darts has meant any world champion will be auto ranked in the top 2 or 3 until his 2 year roll is over.  Even a shock world finalist will prob be top 16 for the whole of that period as well.  Compared to the old ranking system this would never have happened.

the standard is flatter, not necessarily higher, and therefore the first round is tougher

the changes in the format over the season ensure that

Ebdon doesn't have much game, had a nice run of three qualifiers not beating a lot and ground past them 10-9 at 2.25am in one case

ding and liang outside the top 16 is nasty.

the likes of mcgill, wilson etc are serious talents. mcgill got a bad draw and beat murphy fair and square

even david gilbert was superb against ronnie today, but obviously got the nut worst draw

i think we basically agree :-)

[TightEnd]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

I'd say that there's just as much chance that a player is a little tired after playing three best-of-19 matches in the ten days prior to the first round.

Having said that I quite fancy Graeme Dott's chances versus Mark Williams. This is not a recommend but I would have made him a bet @6/4.

i thought that may be the case, tiredness after a week of qualifiers but i definitely think it makes them battle hardened though. McManus outfought maguire (not difficult) to give one example

think there will be more

as arb says unless you have made semis or finals through fifteen ranking events this season you haven't played more than best of 11 all season, until the sheffield qualifiers

[arbboy]

Thats 4 completed matches in the snooker and 3 out of 4 qualifiers have won

in the Higgins quarter there are only two seeds left already

the qualifiers have to play 3 x best of 19 now to get to sheffield, they are coming to the last 32 ready and practiced, whereas a lot of the top 16 have hardly played any best of 19, unless they have made finals, all season

think this is the toughest first round for many a year, and a few more underdog qualifiers are going to win through yet

Can't have that if Ebdon got through qualifiers and just gets blown away in the first round like he did. Standard definitely isn't higher.  I agree with your point the top boys are just out of practice playing long games over the season and the whole snooker circuit is just a glorified shoot out now in most events.  Total turn off especially at the UK open best of 7 games with 4 tables at a time running in the arena.  Hearn has definitely devalued the product for me across the season.

The product being a mass of shootout style tournements means more and more quality players are not seeded where they should be on talent.  That has fucked up the draw this year.  2 year rolling money list in line with darts has meant any world champion will be auto ranked in the top 2 or 3 until his 2 year roll is over.  Even a shock world finalist will prob be top 16 for the whole of that period as well.  Compared to the old ranking system this would never have happened.

the standard is flatter, not necessarily higher, and therefore the first round is tougher

the changes in the format over the season ensure that

Ebdon doesn't have much game, had a nice run of three qualifiers not beating a lot and ground past them 10-9 at 2.25am in one case

ding and liang outside the top 16 is nasty.

the likes of mcgill, wilson etc are serious talents. mcgill got a bad draw and beat murphy fair and square

even david gilbert was superb against ronnie today, but obviously got the nut worst draw

i think we basically agree :-)

YEs we are agreeing.  It is flatter because there is a shit load more variance in every game to form the rankings because most are best of 7 imo not because the talent pool is more flat imo.  The better players don't get a chance week in week out to put their dominance to an advantage.  Hearn has tried to make the rankings fairer by having many more events but all this has done in my opinion has made Ronnie think 'all i need to do is win the world's every year and i will be ranked in the top 2 or 3 without having to bother with anything else'. Hearn's idea was to get the players playing more and more events but it looks like the world's is just so important money wise at the top of the rankings (£330k ftw this year) win that and you are sorted for 2 years.  Never used to be like that under the old ranking points system.

http://www.worldsnooker.com/rankings/

Dott wins the worlds he goes from ranked 24 to probably 3rd in the world and stays there for 2 years pretty much whatever else he does.