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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331849 times)
Chompy
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« Reply #117825 on: May 28, 2016, 12:09:51 PM »

Why would you work it out as home results x away results in a double?

You're pricing them up to go unbeaten for 38 games rather than 19 games, not 19 games multiplied by 19 games.
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« Reply #117826 on: May 28, 2016, 12:23:43 PM »

Why would you work it out as home results x away results in a double?

You're pricing them up to go unbeaten for 38 games rather than 19 games, not 19 games multiplied by 19 games.

It is a double, so 100/1 clearly too short.  19 x 19 games is the same as all home wins x all away games.

 Arbboy's 30/1 is too big though.  If Man U are better than last year then his prices are too small.  Some of those teams aren't ever as small as 8/1 vs a Man U challenging for the title.  I think 14/1 is clearly much closer so no need for all the tiresome lol this and lol that.    Will happily take 30/1 if it is on offer.   
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
arbboy
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« Reply #117827 on: May 28, 2016, 12:26:51 PM »

Why would you work it out as home results x away results in a double?

You're pricing them up to go unbeaten for 38 games rather than 19 games, not 19 games multiplied by 19 games.

It is a double, so 100/1 clearly too short.  19 x 19 games is the same as all home wins x all away games.

 Arbboy's 30/1 is too big though.  If Man U are better than last year then his prices are too small.  Some of those teams aren't ever as small as 8/1 vs a Man U challenging for the title.  I think 14/1 is clearly much closer so no need for all the tiresome lol this and lol that.    Will happily take 30/1 if it is on offer.   

It isn't on offer because i don't go to the effort to price something up to 100% and then lay it at a 100% price with no edge for myself.  Anytime i price something up and quote it it isn't a price i am willing to lay it is the price i make it.  thought this would be fairly obvious to anyone in the know.

Big statement though 'if Manure are better than last year and challenging for the title'  they might not be.  We can only go on what we know now.
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Chompy
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« Reply #117828 on: May 28, 2016, 12:27:47 PM »

It's not a double. It's a one-off price worked out by combining their prices to win all 38 games.

You wouldn't work out a price for Man U to win all 19 home games by calculating a price for them to win their first 13, then doubling it up with a price about them winning their last six.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2016, 12:29:56 PM by Chompy » Logged

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arbboy
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« Reply #117829 on: May 28, 2016, 12:32:21 PM »

It's not a double. It's a one-off price worked out by combining their prices to win all 38 games.

You wouldn't work out a price for Man U to win all 19 home games by calculating a price for them to win their first 13, then doubling it up with a price about them winning their last six.

Chomps you are wrong on this one.  I got no idea what you are talking about tbh!  haha!

If you did what you said you would work out the price of the first 13 games then multiply this price by each of the 6 games remaining.  Or you just work out those 6 games happening (ie multplying all the odds together) then multiply by the first 13 games price.  It is the same calc whichever way you do it.

You actuallymade me doubt myself for a minute!  I thought i was going mad as it is really sunny here and i am sitting out in it doing the morning dogs in the garden!
« Last Edit: May 28, 2016, 12:34:26 PM by arbboy » Logged
Doobs
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« Reply #117830 on: May 28, 2016, 12:32:39 PM »

Why would you work it out as home results x away results in a double?

You're pricing them up to go unbeaten for 38 games rather than 19 games, not 19 games multiplied by 19 games.

It is a double, so 100/1 clearly too short.  19 x 19 games is the same as all home wins x all away games.

 Arbboy's 30/1 is too big though.  If Man U are better than last year then his prices are too small.  Some of those teams aren't ever as small as 8/1 vs a Man U challenging for the title.  I think 14/1 is clearly much closer so no need for all the tiresome lol this and lol that.    Will happily take 30/1 if it is on offer.   

It isn't on offer because i don't go to the effort to price something up to 100% and then lay it at a 100% price with no edge for myself.  Anytime i price something up and quote it it isn't a price i am willing to lay it is the price i make it.  thought this would be fairly obvious to anyone in the know.

Big statement though 'if Manure are better than last year and challenging for the title'  they might not be.  We can only go on what we know now.

It isn't a big statement.   The bets are all related.  So if they win the first 5, the next 14 should be shorter than you made them on day 1.

Will take 25/1.  You have a 20% edge.
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« Reply #117831 on: May 28, 2016, 12:34:29 PM »

It's not a double. It's a one-off price worked out by combining their prices to win all 38 games.

You wouldn't work out a price for Man U to win all 19 home games by calculating a price for them to win their first 13, then doubling it up with a price about them winning their last six.

Chomps you are wrong on this one.  I got no idea what you are talking about tbh!  haha!

Yep.  The maths works out the same.  Price on 19 home undefeated x price on 19 away undefeated = price of game 1 undefeated x price of game 2 undefeated x etc.

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arbboy
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« Reply #117832 on: May 28, 2016, 12:35:36 PM »

Why would you work it out as home results x away results in a double?

You're pricing them up to go unbeaten for 38 games rather than 19 games, not 19 games multiplied by 19 games.

It is a double, so 100/1 clearly too short.  19 x 19 games is the same as all home wins x all away games.

 Arbboy's 30/1 is too big though.  If Man U are better than last year then his prices are too small.  Some of those teams aren't ever as small as 8/1 vs a Man U challenging for the title.  I think 14/1 is clearly much closer so no need for all the tiresome lol this and lol that.    Will happily take 30/1 if it is on offer.  

It isn't on offer because i don't go to the effort to price something up to 100% and then lay it at a 100% price with no edge for myself.  Anytime i price something up and quote it it isn't a price i am willing to lay it is the price i make it.  thought this would be fairly obvious to anyone in the know.

Big statement though 'if Manure are better than last year and challenging for the title'  they might not be.  We can only go on what we know now.

It isn't a big statement.   The bets are all related.  So if they win the first 5, the next 14 should be shorter than you made them on day 1.

Will take 25/1.  You have a 20% edge.

Sure and i stated that in my analysis.  You don't have a 20% edge laying 30/1 shots at 25/1 btw.  Wish you did my roi would be a lot higher and i would be a lot richer.  Man Utd top of the league are not 20/1to lose at home to anyone in this league in 2016.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2016, 12:37:38 PM by arbboy » Logged
Chompy
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« Reply #117833 on: May 28, 2016, 12:38:24 PM »

It's not a double.
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arbboy
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« Reply #117834 on: May 28, 2016, 12:39:54 PM »

It's not a double.

Oh chomps!  It is a 38 team acca effectively.  If you muliple 19 teams together then another 19 teams together.  You multiple all the odds at some point or not.  or just multiple all the 38 games individually.  It is the same!!!!!

If i make something 30/1 to happen i will be offered standard 107% two way prices like most firms.   1/100 12/1 seems reasonable which is what most firms are offering.  I don't blame them for offering 10/1 or 14/1 as punters will back it happily.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2016, 12:45:28 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #117835 on: May 28, 2016, 12:44:17 PM »

Any love for the torso rossos at 200/1 Each Way with hills.  You get fifth first 3.  Think they line up 7 and 8 and we have a rain forecast (just checked).  There isn't a lot between the top teams and they could be higher if one of the better drivers/cars get baulked in qualifying.  40/1 top 3 looks clearly too high to me.

I  realise I jumped the gun with mclaren, but think this is worth a tenner each way too. 

Suggest £10 each way both torso rossos with Hills at 200/1.


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« Reply #117836 on: May 28, 2016, 12:52:00 PM »

Based on the way FP3 went, I have a few more bets to suggest. The mixed up order is causing chaos (and value) for the odds:

Pole Position & Race Winner: Daniel Ricciardo (19/10 or 7/4 pole, 13/5 or 5/2 race win). We already have £10 on these two bets, suggest topping it up by further £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/pole-position

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/winner

Top Three Finish: Max Verstappen (9/5 or 6/4). Suggest £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/top-3-finish

Points Finish: Valtteri Bottas (11/8). This is based on the fact that if one person in the top ten (which are quite far ahead of the rest of the field) doesn't finish the race, Bottas should be in the best position to take advantage. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/monaco-grand-prix/points-finish
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Peter-27
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« Reply #117837 on: May 28, 2016, 12:55:43 PM »

Any love for the torso rossos at 200/1 Each Way with hills.  You get fifth first 3.  Think they line up 7 and 8 and we have a rain forecast (just checked).  There isn't a lot between the top teams and they could be higher if one of the better drivers/cars get baulked in qualifying.  40/1 top 3 looks clearly too high to me.

I  realise I jumped the gun with mclaren, but think this is worth a tenner each way too. 

Suggest £10 each way both torso rossos with Hills at 200/1.




Interesting idea ..

Hmmm, I think I'd be more tempted to go with the Force India's at 300/1 as the Toro Rosso's will struggle in the wet conditions due to a lack of traction and car balance.

I'm going to put £5 EW on all four drivers 1/5 1-3.
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« Reply #117838 on: May 28, 2016, 01:02:34 PM »

Carlos Sainz Monaco Grand Prix Winner
200/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £1,210.00

Daniil Kvyat Monaco Grand Prix Winner
200/1 Each Way (3 Places at 1/5 Odds)
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £1,210.00
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« Reply #117839 on: May 28, 2016, 01:04:36 PM »

and we have a rain forecast (just checked).

Chance of precipitation tomorrow is currently 58% with good convergence in the models. Looking like it could be a chaotic one.
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