Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Deeney at 10m is mentioned yes. We tried hard a year ago pre-ranieri, he would play in behind the vardy/quick striker. Upgrade the okazaki position.

[DungBeetle]

Deeney at 10m is mentioned yes. We tried hard a year ago pre-ranieri, he would play in behind the vardy/quick striker. Upgrade the okazaki position.

Problem is he is worth way more to Watford than his true market value to other teams.  Think Watford would only consider £20 million + and I don't think he is worth that.  Maybe they'd let him go for less for his good service over the years so he can play in Champ League but not sure.

[arbboy]

SDS suspended 9-12 June.

Chompy,

At what price will you consider laying SDS please ? I guess we need to consider the chance of injury.

Thank you

I wouldn't tbh. The three behind us will close the gap this week and Ryan could even join/head us at Royal Ascot, but I wouldn't be overly worried. A four-day break now could help SDS in the long run.

Only ever getting matched for any reasonable amount of money if you laying a price too big in a market like this on bf. 

[vegaslover]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

Think I would still be laying Everton at those prices.

Both Manc teams will be there next season, ditto Arsenal and Chelski. Then got the Spurs, Leics, Liverpool with no Thurs night games etc
Just cannot see Everton getting that high

[arbboy]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

Think I would still be laying Everton at those prices.

Both Manc teams will be there next season, ditto Arsenal and Chelski. Then got the Spurs, Leics, Liverpool with no Thurs night games etc
Just cannot see Everton getting that high

If you would lay those prices on Everton how would you price Everton v Leics season match bet?

[HutchGF]

T20 Kent v Hampshire tonight 6.30 live on Sky.

Handicap Match bet with Ladbrokes, Bell Drummond v Adams, where Bell D has a 1.5 run advantage. Both will open their teams innings.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/kent-v-hampshire/batsman-matchbet-1


Adams since 1st May runs are :

  26, 4,7,18,19,78,11,30,16,5,0,5,70
 
all matches ave 22.2.   T20 ave 12 (3 innings)
 
 
Bell D runs since 1st May

 56 25 64 65 4 80 83 47 69 0 84 86
 
all matches ave 55.2
 
 
T20 ave 57 (3 innings)


Bell D is definitely in form , Adams not so......yet Bell D is given 1.5 runs on handicap.

T20, anything can happen... but I think Bell D is a bet here, recommend £30 at 5/6.

This is a winner, well played sir and thank you.

In with a shout of landing Nelly's coup as well!

[exstream]

What's happening with the sixes

[hhyftrftdr]

Not for Fred but this market is pretty interesting as none of these players are really first choice
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/top-liverpool-goalscorer

For me this is a three horse race - Benteke, Sturridge, Origi. With Lallana fourth favourite.

In the overall top scorer betting the three are priced closely together. However here they go 7/2 Benteke, 6/1 Sturridge and 8/1 Origi. In Belgiums last warm up match Lukaku started with Origi coming on as sub. Benteke didn't get on the pitch.

Bizarrely they have Skrtel and Can up there in the betting too.

I'd say Origi looks well priced in this market at 8/1. But perhaps the value is on no goalscorer at 12/1?

I was looking at this market last night for City, no goalscorer was 14/1 which I thought was decent, but that has since been shrunk to 9/1. Felt KDB was the only real threat to it as can't see Sterling getting much game time and Silva doesn't score many.

[maldini32]

What's happening with the sixes

Afridi killed us, hell of a sweat tho

[4KSuited]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

The price on 366 for a top 6 finish has also been chopped from 11/2 to 7/2. I think that top six is probably the best that can be expected for Everton in a season that will be ultra competitive as mentioned by others. I think all the value's gone now. If only we'd had a speculative bet a week ago when the 16/1 (top 4) and 11/2 (top 6) were still available. However, if they sell Stones and/or Lukaku there's likely to be a price rise which may present an opportunity to have a speculative punt imo.

[vegaslover]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

Think I would still be laying Everton at those prices.

Both Manc teams will be there next season, ditto Arsenal and Chelski. Then got the Spurs, Leics, Liverpool with no Thurs night games etc
Just cannot see Everton getting that high

If you would lay those prices on Everton how would you price Everton v Leics season match bet?

TBH Mark at the mo I wouldn't want to even attempt it...lol
Sooo many if, buts, maybe's at this stage for me, you??

[hector62]

Morning Tighty.

I think Dominic Thiem has been my most profitable tennis player over the last 2 years, but mostly on clay. His game is suited to long baseline rallies and today he plays Sam Groth on grass at Stuttgart. I think the 2-1 we get on Groth is decent and worth backing, I'd even take the 7/4 which is widely available. Thiem has played 5 weeks in a row and could be drained after reaching the semi's in France. Groth has shown a liking for grass and has already played 4 matches this year on grass with 3 victories.

Suggest £20 Groth @ 2-1 with betfair sportsbook.

[TightEnd]

Morning Tighty.

I think Dominic Thiem has been my most profitable tennis player over the last 2 years, but mostly on clay. His game is suited to long baseline rallies and today he plays Sam Groth on grass at Stuttgart. I think the 2-1 we get on Groth is decent and worth backing, I'd even take the 7/4 which is widely available. Thiem has played 5 weeks in a row and could be drained after reaching the semi's in France. Groth has shown a liking for grass and has already played 4 matches this year on grass with 3 victories.

Suggest £20 Groth @ 2-1 with betfair sportsbook.

sorry i thought i had time on this, just went to place it and saw it was a 10am kick off

[TightEnd]

Euro 2016 team top goalscorer markets

a look at the prices of the favourites:

England Kane under 5/2
France Griezmann under 5/2
Germany Muller 7/4
Belgium Lukaku 11/4
Austria Janko 9/4
croatia mandzukic under 7/2
Italy pelle 7/2
poland lewandoski 5/6
russia dzubya 3/1
portugal cristiano 8/13
wales bale ev
slovakia hamsik 9/2
sweden zlatan 8/15
spain morata 3/1
swiss shaqiri 4/1
turkey yilmaz 3/1
ukraine yarmolenko 3/1
roi long 9/2
romania stancu 5/1
n ire lafferty 9/2
iceland gylfi 9/2


aside from those there are a number of sides where there are markets with top goalscorers 7/1 the field

albania (no goalscorer is favourite!)
Hungary
czech republic

so, trying to find an angle i spent an hour looking at the czech republic

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/czech-republic-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

- this is a team that might struggle to get through with croatia/spain/turkey to go against. could be a three game team only
- likely to struggle to score against Spain first up at the weekend
- so the possibility of a dead heat in this market is high, two goals might win it, one might tie it
- no natural goalscorer, they play down the flanks and the joint favourite is Dockal a winger who scored 4 in qualifying but primarily assists, 6 in qualifying. he takes corners and free kicks
- they have only selected three forwards

these are

Necid 11 goals in 38 caps
Lafata 9 in 38 caps
Skoda 3 in 8 caps

all tends to suggest that a couple of goals only might win a 7/1 the field market

Necid is a 6ft 3" lump. watch this with the sound off. please.



has started the last few friendlies. He scored against Malta and Russia in two of the last three games in recent weeks
He took the last penalty the Czechs had, back in qualifying
looks likely to be the single striker to start, with two wingers supplying

In a pretty humdrum field where a winger is favourite i thought he should be shorter than sevens (bet victor only)

recommend £20 Necid top Czech goalscorer 7-1 BV

[hhyftrftdr]

Any thoughts on the assists market? Ozil and Hazard are the obvious favourites at 12s and 14s, but looking a bit further down the list you have Pogba at 20/1, KDB at 20 and Martial at 25.

Does Ozil getting a bucketload of assists for Arsenal translate to him getting a bucketload of assists for Germany?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/most-assists