Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Any thoughts on the assists market? Ozil and Hazard are the obvious favourites at 12s and 14s, but looking a bit further down the list you have Pogba at 20/1, KDB at 20 and Martial at 25.

Does Ozil getting a bucketload of assists for Arsenal translate to him getting a bucketload of assists for Germany?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/most-assists

How many assists will win this market? 10 way dead way with 2?  3 maybe?   Doesn't look a market to back a short priced one in.

[hhyftrftdr]

Any thoughts on the assists market? Ozil and Hazard are the obvious favourites at 12s and 14s, but looking a bit further down the list you have Pogba at 20/1, KDB at 20 and Martial at 25.

Does Ozil getting a bucketload of assists for Arsenal translate to him getting a bucketload of assists for Germany?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/most-assists

How many assists will win this market? 10 way dead way with 2?  3 maybe?   Doesn't look a market to back a short priced one in.

Yeah was thinking you could win it outright with as few as 3 assists. Need a team with good chances of going far, excellent attacking options to stick the assists away, and preferably an 'easy' group. We can obv rule England out

I know Croatia are a lot of people's dark horses, I'm not convinced and they are in a tough group, but Modric is lurking further down the pecking order at 50s. Also Nani at 40s, with Portugal facing up against Iceland, Hungary and Austria and Ronaldo on hand to dispatch the chances.

[Horneris]

More of a Dockal 7/1 man myself

[hhyftrftdr]

Can fred get on at Boylesport? Before I dig deeper with Nani

[TightEnd]

Can fred get on at Boylesport? Before I dig deeper with Nani

no. first post of the thread for where we can and can't bet

[booder]

How are things looking for the Mathews cricket bet Rich ?

[TightEnd]

How are things looking for the Mathews cricket bet Rich ?

two possible innings to go, on what looks a good pitch

Mathews was leading until chandimal found a century at durham following on

but we have a shot

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/records/batting/most_runs_career.html?id=10407;type=series

chandimal 153
mathews 122
mendis 114

[bergeroo]

For Hungary you've got two strikers Szalai and Priskin as the faves. I'd favour Balazs Dzsudzsak at 8/1 sky, will hill. Winger, main man, guaranteed pitch time.

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Albania have two starting central mids available at 40/1 Xhaka and 50/1 Abrassi.
Gashi 11/1 could play up front but probably on the wing
Lenjani 14/1 looks set to play on the other wing

Up front Cikalleshi 7/1 seems favoured but difficult to say.

The coach plays full backs on the wing and left Rashica (the most creative player) out of the squad. So that gives an idea of how he is going to play.

I've got no idea who will take the penalties for Albainia!

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Nice write up about the Czechs. I haven't bet this market as I'm still quite unsure. The coach plays a very attacking style so I'm going to shy away from no goalscorer in this one even at 20-1. Kadlec the centre half has scored five penalties for his country and he is available at 30-1. He was on the pitch for the match when Necid scored his pen though.

[Sportshead]

Any thoughts on the assists market? Ozil and Hazard are the obvious favourites at 12s and 14s, but looking a bit further down the list you have Pogba at 20/1, KDB at 20 and Martial at 25.

Does Ozil getting a bucketload of assists for Arsenal translate to him getting a bucketload of assists for Germany?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/most-assists

Always feels like Ozil plays a little deeper for Germany, would look at Thomas Muller in this market at 25/1 drifts wide and a very unselfish player in around the box,guaranteed starter etc....
Agree I like KDB as well takes most set pieces which Belgium are strong at
Not sure Martial gets the game time

[Bazzaboy]

There's a bet I really like tomorrow in the boxing. Enzo Maccarinelli fights for the vacant European title against Dimitri Kucher.  The bookies had Enzo as a dog when the prices first went up but there has been sustained support for him. Enzo has tended to be overpriced in recent times largely due to some heavy KO defeats he suffered a few years back, he is seen as damaged goods.  He has had 7 losses and been stopped every time however the last genuine KO was 6 years ago. Since then he has had two stoppage defeats but one was due to the worst stoppage I've ever seen when Enzo wasn't even hurt (Enzo won the rematch) and the other due to suffering an eye injury when he fought Braehmer for the world title at light heavy.

Whilst he suffered some bad KO defeats in his career bur the guys stopping him were class operators like Haye, Lebedev and Ofolabi (a fight he was comfortably winning before he got careless). Since he linked up with the excellent Gary Lockett 4 years ago Enzo has had a much tighter defence and he tends not to leave his chin exposed like he did back in the day.

Kucher is not a massive puncher and is nowhere near the level of the fighters mentioned above. He is a solid European level fighter at best. The 5/4 for Enzo to win with Skybet is still a decent bet but no good for Fred obviously. However there is abetter bet. Enzo to win on points is 11/2. There  was 7/1 available earlier in the week but it went as I was waiting on others pricing it up. I'd have had a big bet at that price but it's still worth a decent bet at 11/2.

As mentioned above Kucher is a pretty ordinary fighter with a padded record. The biggest name he has fought is Makabu (who Bellew demolished the other week) who he lost a majority decision to. For all Makabu's faults against Bellew he was able to confirm that he was heavy handed. Kucher is the only man who has taken him the distance which suggests there's nothing at all wrong with his chin. Enzo himself is a big puncher but has been a bit more circumspect under Lockett and I expect him to box his way to a win on the cards. Recommend £60 Enzo by decision at 11/2 with Coral or BFSB

[Marky147]

There's a bet I really like tomorrow in the boxing. Enzo Maccarinelli fights for the vacant European title against Dimitri Kucher.  The bookies had Enzo as a dog when the prices first went up but there has been sustained support for him. Enzo has tended to be overpriced in recent times largely due to some heavy KO defeats he suffered a few years back, he is seen as damaged goods.  He has had 7 losses and been stopped every time however the last genuine KO was 6 years ago. Since then he has had two stoppage defeats but one was due to the worst stoppage I've ever seen when Enzo wasn't even hurt (Enzo won the rematch) and the other due to suffering an eye injury when he fought Braehmer for the world title at light heavy.

Whilst he suffered some bad KO defeats in his career bur the guys stopping him were class operators like Haye, Lebedev and Ofolabi (a fight he was comfortably winning before he got careless). Since he linked up with the excellent Gary Lockett 4 years ago Enzo has had a much tighter defence and he tends not to leave his chin exposed like he did back in the day.

Kucher is not a massive puncher and is nowhere near the level of the fighters mentioned above. He is a solid European level fighter at best. The 5/4 for Enzo to win with Skybet is still a decent bet but no good for Fred obviously. However there is abetter bet. Enzo to win on points is 11/2. There  was 7/1 available earlier in the week but it went as I was waiting on others pricing it up. I'd have had a big bet at that price but it's still worth a decent bet at 11/2.

As mentioned above Kucher is a pretty ordinary fighter with a padded record. The biggest name he has fought is Makabu (who Bellew demolished the other week) who he lost a majority decision to. For all Makabu's faults against Bellew he was able to confirm that he was heavy handed. Kucher is the only man who has taken him the distance which suggests there's nothing at all wrong with his chin. Enzo himself is a big puncher but has been a bit more circumspect under Lockett and I expect him to box his way to a win on the cards. Recommend £60 Enzo by decision at 11/2 with Coral or BFSB

That's on for Fred.

[aaron1867]

Go on then, I'll put one up before it gets started tomorrow.

Sweden to qualify @ 4/5.

They are in Group E with Belgium, Italy and Ireland. I think we are potentially through with a win against Ireland, but look good enough to get more than 3 points against the other two.

4/5 with Sky, would take 7/10 elsewhere.

[tikay]

Euro 2016 team top goalscorer markets

a look at the prices of the favourites:

England Kane under 5/2
France Griezmann under 5/2
Germany Muller 7/4
Belgium Lukaku 11/4
Austria Janko 9/4
croatia mandzukic under 7/2
Italy pelle 7/2
poland lewandoski 5/6
russia dzubya 3/1
portugal cristiano 8/13
wales bale ev
slovakia hamsik 9/2
sweden zlatan 8/15
spain morata 3/1
swiss shaqiri 4/1
turkey yilmaz 3/1
ukraine yarmolenko 3/1
roi long 9/2
romania stancu 5/1
n ire lafferty 9/2
iceland gylfi 9/2


aside from those there are a number of sides where there are markets with top goalscorers 7/1 the field

albania (no goalscorer is favourite!)
Hungary
czech republic

so, trying to find an angle i spent an hour looking at the czech republic

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/euro-2016/czech-republic-euro-2016-specials/top-goalscorer

- this is a team that might struggle to get through with croatia/spain/turkey to go against. could be a three game team only
- likely to struggle to score against Spain first up at the weekend
- so the possibility of a dead heat in this market is high, two goals might win it, one might tie it
- no natural goalscorer, they play down the flanks and the joint favourite is Dockal a winger who scored 4 in qualifying but primarily assists, 6 in qualifying. he takes corners and free kicks
- they have only selected three forwards

these are

Necid 11 goals in 38 caps
Lafata 9 in 38 caps
Skoda 3 in 8 caps

all tends to suggest that a couple of goals only might win a 7/1 the field market

Necid is a 6ft 3" lump. watch this with the sound off. please.



has started the last few friendlies. He scored against Malta and Russia in two of the last three games in recent weeks
He took the last penalty the Czechs had, back in qualifying
looks likely to be the single striker to start, with two wingers supplying

In a pretty humdrum field where a winger is favourite i thought he should be shorter than sevens (bet victor only)

recommend £20 Necid top Czech goalscorer 7-1 BV

Looks really well thought out to me Rich, go ahead and get on, please.

[nellberg]

T20 blast tonight. The Nottinghamshire openers Lumb and Wessels have put on partenrships of 100 (T20 blast), 342 (RL cup) and 178 (RL cup) in the last week, so they're in a bit of nick  Pitches have been an absolute road at Trent bridge, 369 runs in the T20 game and tallies of 870 and 794 in the 2 50-over games.

Billyhill have the opening partnership line at 20.5. I'd have been happy with high-20's tbf. recc £30 at 5/6.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/natwest-t20-blast/nottinghamshire-v-derbyshire/nottinghamshire-opening-partnership

[Peter-27]

Hi guys,

Been extremely busy this week, haven't had a proper chance to go through the markets, but a cursory look pulls out two bets for the Canadian GP:

Perez and Hulkenberg podiumvate at 14/1+, suggest £5 on each.

Will do a proper post later today.