Tips for Tikay

[rinswun]

Pretty much nailed my thoughts, Spieth and Grace were the other two backed on top of Rees and the long shots. To

[Sportshead]

Think it was Bergeroo who put up Poland a while back
I thought they were unfortunate that the chances kept falling to Milic rather than Lewandowski

[DMorgan]

What do we think to the machine in teams of price referencing on golf majors once we get past the first 12-16 in the market and its all 50-1+ prices?

For example when Italy go off at 3.2 vs Belgium we can be pretty certain that the true price is in the 3.1-3.3 range

When a golfer is offered at 50-1 by fixed odds bookies but trades at 60-1 on the exchange in what is a 50+ runner handicap would this be enough to put anyone off? Or just take these big prices with a hefty pinch of salt?

Edit: Just talking about the win part only, obv there are spots where the place prices with the fixed odds books will crush the exchange with offers, extra places etc

[bergeroo]

The draw makeup looks good for Poland, would be even better if Spain doesn't win the group. Was going to go back in again on Poland ew if Spain had drawn with the Czechs, as it is, still two tough matches for Spain, that was meant to be the easiest...

[tikay]

Edit: Price is moving about all the time I've used the generally available 2.25 for the calc now, done with it

Are they not over 60% to get 3 points (16+25+20+2 ish)?

No.

Chance of them winning at least one game you don't add up the chance of winning each game. It's 1 - (chance of not winning any game).

So .75* .83 * .8 = 49.8% they don't win a game. 50.2% they win at least one game.

2.2% for three draws. So 52.4% to get at least 3 points.

52.4% * .85 = 44.5%.

Yup, I made it exactly the same.

[Karabiner]

The last US Open at Oakmont was my best ever golf-betting coup.

I bet a fiver on Cabrera @180 on betty and kept pressing as he drifted, I ended up with £25 on and the last fiver was @240. A fond memory.

[Tal]

Ascot Stakes
Outright NRNB
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4   Totalize   25/1   
Total stake   30.00
Estimated return   498.75
Full stake   30.00
Full estimated return   498.75


please could you have a word with the owners? Totalize with a z is painful. Totalise, please. Its royal ascot after all

http://blog.oxforddictionaries.com/2011/03/ize-or-ise/

first loser of the day. I had Tal at 6/4.

VUL, Tighty.

More pertinently, which clown establishment laid you the bet at 6/4 and have you been restricted yet?

[Karabiner]

I think Goosen is well worth an EW dabble for Oakmont @200/1.

Dual US Open champion who has been showing signs of life again this year.

I'll recommend £5 or £10 EW @ 200/1 if you can get it.

[DungBeetle]

The draw makeup looks good for Poland, would be even better if Spain doesn't win the group. Was going to go back in again on Poland ew if Spain had drawn with the Czechs, as it is, still two tough matches for Spain, that was meant to be the easiest...

Surely Czech is not the easiest Spain game on paper - Turkey outsiders in that group?  Czech won the Holland/Turkey/Iceland group in qualifying and will be jollies in the Turkey match (I imagine).

[Peter-27]

FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.

Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much

[BigAdz]

FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.

Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much

Peter

I don't think you have made any "foes" on here. I think you need to accept others will sometimes have opinions that differ from yours, and sometimes they will be right.

If you openly challenge them, the reply may seem like you have created a problem. Most of the good folk here don't hold grudges, and are quite happy to debate in a grown up way, so keep giving us your opinions, but just think about how you would react if someone were to challenge your opinion, when you post your reply to others thought on your sport.

Keep up the fantastic work.

[bergeroo]

Turkey were favoured slightly over the Czechs before the tournament. Now Turkey have drifted slightly and are very small faves but basically a flip. They are now priced the same for the tournament despite Turkey having a worse result in the first match.

The draw makeup looks good for Poland, would be even better if Spain doesn't win the group. Was going to go back in again on Poland ew if Spain had drawn with the Czechs, as it is, still two tough matches for Spain, that was meant to be the easiest...

Surely Czech is not the easiest Spain game on paper - Turkey outsiders in that group?  Czech won the Holland/Turkey/Iceland group in qualifying and will be jollies in the Turkey match (I imagine).

[Karabiner]

FTAO Peter


Can't tell if that's sarcasm because I should be better at stake sizing by now - or a genuine comment. I'm going to assume the latter, so thank you very much

That was in reply to sonour.

sonour does not really do sarcasm, Peter, & certainly does not "lolzz" the regulars here, so I think you can safely assume she was being genuinely complimentary.

Keep the stuff coming, the debate on bets for this race in the last few days have benefitted many of us.

Correct Tikay,

Peter, you have handled yourself very, very well on here. I'm not often impressed by 24 year olds.

Snap.

This weekend I feel like I've made a number of friends and foes on this small community, and I have felt somewhat pressured to defend myself, despite my strong record to date. Therefore, these words mean a lot, thank you very much

Peter

I don't think you have made any "foes" on here. I think you need to accept others will sometimes have opinions that differ from yours, and sometimes they will be right.

If you openly challenge them, the reply may seem like you have created a problem. Most of the good folk here don't hold grudges, and are quite happy to debate in a grown up way, so keep giving us your opinions, but just think about how you would react if someone were to challenge your opinion, when you post your reply to others thought on your sport.

Keep up the fantastic work.

Wise words from Adz there Peter.

I don't think you have any "foes" here at all.

I for one have been extremely impressed by the depth of your knowledge and analysis re. F1 as are all of us I would imagine, and your ROI speaks for itself.

Keep it coming please.

[BigAdz]

Im not a big Godolphin fan, but I could see them have a tidy day tomorrow.

Belardo in the first should love the ground.

Thunder Snow showed an impressive turn of foot first time out in the Coventry

Jungle Cat looks to be a good ew price if his run behind Profitable at Newmarket can be trusted.

Our 2000 Ante Post bet Emotionless returns in the St James Palace.

However, despite putting up a bet in the Ascot Stakes earlier, i think we should have another "shit or bust" bet in the shape of Pengalli Pavilion. This was a horse that finshed 5th behind Treve in the Arc a few years back, and whilst clearly not that horse now, after a decent campaign over hurdles, this huge step up in trip may be the key to an improvement in his recent flat form. He is currently rated 23lbs lower than those heady days, but if he retains a modicum of that talent, he is a massive price

Suggest a modest £10 at best available, currently 20-1

[DMorgan]

Pengalli Pavilion can be backed at 24.0 on the exchange, 22.8 after 5% commission

gl us!