Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Nishioka plays Kyrgios in the ATP Atlanta semi final today

its at 8pm our time on Europsort

Kyrgios is a 2/13 favourite for the match, Nishioka nearly 6/1

the bet we have is

ATP Atlanta   Nishioka   100/1   10      £5 e/w 1/2 1,2

[tikay]

Nishioka plays Kyrgios in the ATP Atlanta semi final today

its at 8pm our time on Europsort

Kyrgios is a 2/13 favourite for the match, Nishioka nearly 6/1

the bet we have is

ATP Atlanta   Nishioka   100/1   10      £5 e/w 1/2 1,2

Oh my, what value this chap was @ 100/1.

And whilst I know nothing about tennis, I do know that we have a chance against this Kyrgios chap, who seems to have a problem between his ears. Not sure I'd want to be on him at 2/13.

This was what hector said in his bet recommend;


I want to oppose Kyrgios as I would want the 3's just for him to practice before each game, yet alone win the tournament

As 100/1 shots go, we could not wish for a better match up.

[Weetabix]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

[hector62]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

What a great post. I think it re-affirms what most people already know, that I am after all just a giant luckbox.

[BigAdz]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' type post.

I think before you knock the pick of someone with an exceptional record you should really better it yourself.

[Doobs]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' post.

At least he didn't call anyone a tosser. 

Would be good to break down how he came to a best of 9/1 to reach the semi though.  Feels like we need some evidence he knows odds.

Suspect that kyrgios isn't tge best match up we could hope for, Tikay! 

Have a good day all.

[Weetabix]

Wow!  Dan Evans he was around evs, 2/1 dolgopolov, 4/6 zeballos, that is where I came up with the 9/1.  I have said it could be an inspired pick which is giving great credit for the pick itself, big difference between a great pick and if it was really fantastic value.  I have placed similar bets to this where I know I have backed a 100/1 that in theory is double those odds if I was able to follow the progress of the player but often you aren't able to do this due to lack of time/work etc.  I didn't post this before as tikay is the first person to say it was a great value price, it wasn't really.   I will say it again just for big adz, it looks a great pick so far and please show me where I have knocked hectors PICK?  No need for the 'tosser' response. 

[tikay]

I get what is being said here, but I'm easily pleased. I have 50/1 about a 6/1 shot, and that feels like value to me.

If it should have  been 150/1, fine, so be it, but personally I'm very pleased to be where we are with the bet.

[Tal]

I get what is being said here, but I'm easily pleased. I have 50/1 about a 6/1 shot, and that feels like value to me.

If it should have  been 150/1, fine, so be it, but personally I'm very pleased to be where we are with the bet.

I'll echo that.

There's definitely a benefit to reviewing bets after the event and assessing whether we can learn from them. But Fred is a community effort and he can be rather a delicate flower at times. If he has got out of bed the wrong side one morning, frankly he can be a mardy so and so.

However, Fred has found a decent way to avoid most of this: people put bets up, others comment on them and the Elders decide whether it gets placed. The time for Q&A, assessment and number crunching tends best to be before we place the bet. Doing it afterwards can be misconstrued. Whether the goose lays golden eggs, silver plated ones or rotten stinky ones, it's better to mention it before she accepts an invitation to Netflix and Chill with Mr Goose; not while she's giving birth.

We get great feedback and intelligence on betting markets, odds compilation and how to spot value (if you're new to this thread, there's thousands of pages of it and a mathematics thread, too). Those well versed in that do it best when they have patience in the ignorance of others. You're not just teaching but coaching. Equally, the rest of us have to swallow our pride sometimes when that feedback arrives, if we are to reap its benefits. I know I've had to.

We need the discussion points and the ideas to make the thread work. Without that we are doomed. Half a dozen horse bets and a few footy 3pm bets won't make this much of an entertain place to come. Variety, wisdom and knowledge working together and those bookies will continue to shake with fear.

[TheDazzler]

Storm in a tea cup here.
Hector has such a great eye that I'm happy to just back anything he puts up even if they aren't maximising EV.
Weetabix puts up a very valid point about how the bet may have been approached from a different angle (although perhaps he could have been more diplomatic in how he said it).
There is learning there if we want it. Perhaps if Hector has a similar long shot in future, we could look at backing individual matches as well as the overall tournament win?

[Chompy]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' type post.

I think before you knock the pick of someone with an exceptional record you should really better it yourself.

What a guy.

[BigAdz]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' post.

At least he didn't call anyone a tosser. 

Would be good to break down how he came to a best of 9/1 to reach the semi though.  Feels like we need some evidence he knows odds.

Suspect that kyrgios isn't tge best match up we could hope for, Tikay! 

Have a good day all.

I tend to call it as I see it. Can't all be diplomats, and hide our thoughts in snidey double meanings that you can claim later never intended any harm.....

Maybe a quick reread of what you have written would highlight the tone that comes across, before you post it.

There have been a number of criticisms of Hector over the years from the "faces" who understand odds better than most of us.

In all cases I have made more money following Hector off level stakes than ANY of them. So I get a little pissed off when those who have given very little thus far, undermine one of our best assets.

I don't think I am being OOO as Hector himself made a similar comment.

[DungBeetle]

Question: don't you get hidden value in an outright price because top seeds can get beaten by other people (eg Murray benefiting from Querry beating Djokovic at Wimbledon)?  So if all matches go to plan the cumulative match by match odds will always look better than an outright price?  ie if a rag comes out of the other half of the draw rather than Isner then the 300-1 looks a lot different.

[FUN4FRASER]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' post.

At least he didn't call anyone a tosser. 

Would be good to break down how he came to a best of 9/1 to reach the semi though.  Feels like we need some evidence he knows odds.

Suspect that kyrgios isn't tge best match up we could hope for, Tikay! 

Have a good day all.

I tend to call it as I see it. Can't all be diplomats, and hide our thoughts in snidey double meanings that you can claim later never intended any harm.....

Maybe a quick reread of what you have written would highlight the tone that comes across, before you post it.

There have been a number of criticisms of Hector over the years from the "faces" who understand odds better than most of us.

In all cases I have made more money following Hector off level stakes than ANY of them. So I get a little pissed off when those who have given very little thus far, undermine one of our best assets.

I don't think I am being OOO as Hector himself made a similar comment.

not having a go at you either adz but tosser not helpful when all he did was an analysis , after al it is a subjective forum where every angle helps beat the book

could be construed as taking the edge of a great 100-1 pick so at the very worst a tad ill timed

Peace  x

[BigAdz]

To reach the final hector has 50/1, the easiest possible route to the semifinals for nishioka made him around a 9/1 chance. Kygrios or Verdasco was his likely opponent and equally tough.  You can see he is 5/1 to make the final which would pay over 60/1 for the place with isner almost certain to be his final opponent,  if he was to make the final where he would be 4/1-5/1 you would think making him at least a 300/1 chance for the win part.  Although 100/1 on the eye may look great value it never was really even if you went down the easiest possible route to the semifinals, and then the final.  Very best of luck hector, although it isn't necessarily great value it could very well be an inspired pick.

Complete tosser post alert.

Why?

Had you posted this before I would have At least a modicum of respect for you having a view. At this stage, I don't see the point apart from some form of weird 'look at me, I know odds' post.

At least he didn't call anyone a tosser. 

Would be good to break down how he came to a best of 9/1 to reach the semi though.  Feels like we need some evidence he knows odds.

Suspect that kyrgios isn't tge best match up we could hope for, Tikay! 

Have a good day all.

I tend to call it as I see it. Can't all be diplomats, and hide our thoughts in snidey double meanings that you can claim later never intended any harm.....

Maybe a quick reread of what you have written would highlight the tone that comes across, before you post it.

There have been a number of criticisms of Hector over the years from the "faces" who understand odds better than most of us.

In all cases I have made more money following Hector off level stakes than ANY of them. So I get a little pissed off when those who have given very little thus far, undermine one of our best assets.

I don't think I am being OOO as Hector himself made a similar comment.

not having a go at you either adz but tosser not helpful when all he did was an analysis , after al it is a subjective forum where every angle helps beat the book

could be construed as taking the edge of a great 100-1 pick so at the very worst a tad ill timed

Peace  x

Each to his own mate.

Pretty sure if the original unnecessary and somewhat subjective analysis, hadn't been posted, I would ever have been woken from my slumber in the first place.

I post less and less these days for this very reason.