Tips for Tikay

[Weetabix]

I can't get on the exchange for the next week so no idea what' liquidity is available.  I'm looking at oddschecker and if 3/1 was the only option it's still a bet.

[RobS]

The last time I looked their was no liquidity in that market, obviously there is now.  I can't say for certain he will
Win nor can any other person but don't see him as a 3-1/4.5 shot.   No other reason, in your opinion if you were pricing this book how would you have it?

No liquidity? When did you last look? It's had £25m matched and been liquid for ages. I have no opinion other than backing something at 11/4 or 3/1 when 4.6 is available is bad business. Especially baffling after you carefully went through the maths of Hector's 100/1 shot, which is the only reason I responded to this.

[TightEnd]

you can see the exchange on oddschecker.

its showing 100/30 but in practice you can get what you want on over 4.5

so i went to look at norpoth, and it didn't take 3 minutes to find some rather effective rubbishing of what looks to be some suspect methodology

https://www.quora.com/How-statistically-sound-is-Helmut-Norpoths-primary-model-for-predicting-presidential-election-results


i'm scratching my head a bit really, there hasn't been anything mentioned about his being an anti-establishment candidate, appealing to the working class white population, parallels with Brexit, weaknesses of Clinton as a candidate, which are the vital swing states and why there might be a trump surprise in one of them etc to get an angle

instead we have you are "hoping he wins", a reference to a (possibly outlier )model and you don't think he's a 3/1 shot when in practice we can get 7/2?

[Weetabix]

Yes it is ridiculous if so much is available on the exchange.  Give it another month and trump will be odds on. Back next week to toast hectors Mexico winner.

[Marky147]

We now know the Weetabix is a schizophrenic

Which one is coming back next week?

[Weetabix]

You have to agree a big percentage of bets struck on here have a ' hope they win' ring to it.  What is the difference between hector hoping the top seeds fall away in rd 1 to me thinking trump is at least a 50/50 chance?  Do you think Hillary is a 1/3 shot? She was a 1/2 shot a week ago, the price was shortening on the Donald until the Khan remarks.  If I was to put up a football bet on Liverpool saying they look a big price as they have a great record at white hart lane over the years would you place the bet or question the angle.   I noticed a few bets were placed on anytime scorers yesterday , basically guessing bets placed without any questioning.  No angle whatsoever, just a random punt.  The trump movement is heading one way I'm afraid, come November arb will be on here advising lumping on trump at 1/20 

I can see betfair on oddschecker but never take any notice of the price until
I can log in and see for myself as these specials markets are often poor for liquidity. I can't place a bet on there for a week.

I don't know how they can price this election up, Hillary 1/3 has to be taken on, shocker of a price.  Signing out, see you next week and good luck, enjoy the tomic v Lopez final.

[TightEnd]

" If I was to put up a football bet on Liverpool saying they look a big price as they have a great record at white hart lane over the years would you place the bet or question the angle. "

No, we wouldn't place that because what happened in prior years has no relevance. Would question the angle as its a fallacy adopted by some gamblers to justify a view. similarly, if anyone says (reductio ad absurdum) "Stoke haven't won in London for 12 trips and they visit Arsenal this weekend and"....hundreds of pairs of eyes on here glaze over....

As to the anytime tryscorer bets, i think they are amongst the most successful tips from a successful tipster who

a) knows the sport and its players well
b) has an instinct for finding value
c) has a track record of many hundreds of bets on here, at a profit
d) they aren't random punts

because of c) i will tend to place the bets quickly. there are a number of people in this category.

No one has any problem with constructive criticism of any bets put up on here, helps make us all better, but being overly combative as you seem to want to be isn't too constructive

[fatcatstu]

Anyway, come on Hector, I'm getting impatient!!

[hector62]

Evening Tighty.

After much coffee and chocolate biscuits ( breakaway by the way ) I have reached my choice for the ATP Mexico. There are question marks over all of the protagonists. I really can't back Lopez as he has looked his age, and the same for Karlovic and you can add in getting over an injury from earlier in the season. Nether of those 2 are anywhere near the players they were. Tomic is cut from the same cloth as Kyrgios but has less natural talent. At 7-2 he looks poor value.

The 2 that made my shortlist are Querrey and Verdasco. I would prefer Verdasco to be in the other half as his record against Tomic is not good. But the fact we can get 9-1 on Verdasco has swayed it in his favour.

Suggest £10 e/w Verdasco @ 9-1 with Coral.

[TightEnd]

Fernando Verdasco Abierto Mexicano Los Cabos Winner
9/1 Each Way (2 Places at 1/2 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £155.00

[NoCardDSC]

The Coral site really does pain me, unable to see the outright betting on the above? Any ideas?

[Peter-27]

Not sure anyone has mentioned this, big price compared to rival bookies:

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/football/football-specials/football-specials/premier-league-countdown-boosts/222363375/

[FUN4FRASER]

closes eyes, blames the world in advance

        Bet Type: Single
            Hull City v Leicester City Match Prices
                Leicester City 11/10
        Possible Payout (inc. stake) 210.00 GBP
    1 bet @
    100.00 GBP

    Total Cost: 100.00 GBP
    Total Possible Payout (inc. stake): 210.00 GBP

History dictates backing an away team in the premier league is never an exact science however given the circumstances I expect Leicester to easily prevail.

Pretty sure they will be odds on come kick off and the current price will prove value.

[FUN4FRASER]

no signs of situation improving as caretaker manager Phelan just confirmed in charge for first match (at least)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37012892

[Tal]

no signs of situation improving as caretaker manager Phelan just confirmed in charge for first match (at least)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/37012892

I think the owner got the idea from watching Have I Got News For You. Every couple of months, Alexander Armstrong will be in the dugout. Clarkson will have a go of course. That's bound to be entertaining. David Mitchell will add value in the post match interview, but good luck, Shreevesy with Brian Blessed.