Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

x posted from the WSOP betting thread:

Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards

I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)

WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.

We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.

Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!

Looks massive on those stats.  Hills limited me to £2.86.  £20ish max win.

[FUN4FRASER]

x posted from the WSOP betting thread:

Winning Hole Cards. Any pocket pair 7/1
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hole-cards

I've gone through the stats of winning hole cards from Wikipedia from no limit holdem tournaments where it shows the winning hand. I've excluded mixed games/Pot Limit/Limit and ante up.

Here is my data: (pocket pairs/total tournaments)

WSOP Mains 13/44
12/35 WSOP 2016
9/34 WSOP 2015 excluding main
5/33 WSOP 2014 excluding main
6/36 WSOP 2013 excluding main
10/45 EPT first five seasons (doesn't show hole cards on wikipedia after that)
16/38 WSOPE and Australia all time

Total 71/265 tournies where the winning hand was a pocket pair.

We can bet it at 7/1. The maths seem onside.

Only available in two spots, see how much you can get on with them both!

Aren't the odds of being dealt a pocket pair in Hold 'em nearer to 16/1?

true but we are talking about the final hand in question

[bergeroo]

Doobs - did you try the other one too?

I am happy with the maths, I have no more time now to go through back through WSOPs from 2012 and further back but I think the number will stand up. All data is on wikipedia.

This market is also interesting but I've got no concrete thoughts right now and just about to go out.
Any opinions?
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hand

[Tonibell]

Love the Makzeem bet [cue missing the jump, him pulling his head off etc].

Saw this on Flatstats twitter. Sample size but doesn't hurt to know.

I subscribe to flatstats but some of the stats they come up with are complete super-roflers.  They are just noise miners.

LOL at noise miners. I'm not a subscriber for that reason but 'Quick returners' seems like a meaningful metric in that it refers directly to intentional trainer behaviour not post hoc stuff (Prescott another obvious one). Definitely not putting it up as a sole reason for the bet, though.

Cheers, Horseplayer for Two for Two. Roger fell definitely 'one to watch' *cough, cough &c*.

[Doobs]

Doobs - did you try the other one too?

I am happy with the maths, I have no more time now to go through back through WSOPs from 2012 and further back but I think the number will stand up. All data is on wikipedia.

This market is also interesting but I've got no concrete thoughts right now and just about to go out.
Any opinions?
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hand

Ladbrokes?  They are no longer a bookmaker,

[FUN4FRASER]

Doobs - did you try the other one too?

I am happy with the maths, I have no more time now to go through back through WSOPs from 2012 and further back but I think the number will stand up. All data is on wikipedia.

This market is also interesting but I've got no concrete thoughts right now and just about to go out.
Any opinions?
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hand

Phil

The 7 -1 ..pair winning hand is the value bet 

bet for TFT if anybody can get the 7-1

[KarmaDope]

For the NFL tomorrow the Patriots at the Bills is shaping up as a big game for the books

one reported that it has 500k of tickets on the game already

Sports Insights report that it has tracked 88% of tickets and 95% of $ going on the Patriots/spread

the line has moved (its in Buffalo) to Patriots -7 in

clearly Brady/Gronk etc are the ultimate public play type players. well known/successful/on a run etc

The Bills would be a big "anti-public" play but are no mugs

4-3 second in their division, won three on the spin i think

and always play the Pats hard, the Bills have split the last 4 games against the Pats 2-2 and beat them 16-0 earlier this season in New Egland when Brady and Gronk were missing

maybe one for Tal to think about

I think the bet is Buffalo +7, although with Shady McCoy likely to be out and Tyrod Taylor throwing to a WR corps as good as a Cleveland Browns QB, I can see why the money is on the Pats.

[Doobs]

If you had started betting with a £4000 bank betting at £10 a point when a certain tipping site started you'd have made £38,185.90.

Fantastic figures Neil, but suspect the reality would be 3 closed accounts, 8 restricted to peanuts and who knows what profit.   Though I know a lady with many husbands.

[bergeroo]

I've got £25 for Fred with Lads if Fred wants it!

[Chompy]

Doobs - did you try the other one too?

I am happy with the maths, I have no more time now to go through back through WSOPs from 2012 and further back but I think the number will stand up. All data is on wikipedia.

This market is also interesting but I've got no concrete thoughts right now and just about to go out.
Any opinions?
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hand

Ladbrokes?  They are no longer a bookmaker,

Been fine with me tbh. Would have plenty below them in the list.

[FUN4FRASER]

Doobs - did you try the other one too?

I am happy with the maths, I have no more time now to go through back through WSOPs from 2012 and further back but I think the number will stand up. All data is on wikipedia.

This market is also interesting but I've got no concrete thoughts right now and just about to go out.
Any opinions?
http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winning-hand

Ladbrokes?  They are no longer a bookmaker,

Been fine with me tbh. Would have plenty below them in the list.

Paddy Power Piss it with Bald in their slipstream

[NigDawG]

Newmarket fast ground means we should be looking for prominent racers in all races and this one is full of hold-up rofflers.

thoughts on kool kompany in the 4.40 using this logic? craven winner made all over course and distance on good to firm last year. disappointed when sent to australia but his comeback run wasn't terrible at a time when the yard were struggling for winners. estidkhaar from the same yard can also race prominently but we are 5lb better off with him from last time and he's yet to fully prove he stays this mile. the fav does look a potential improver (big horse) but kool is 7lb better off with him for the one time they met last year. i think 22/1 looks pretty generous e/w

[Chompy]

Estidkhaar led at Salisbury last time and KK tracked him. Obv Hannon wouldn't want the pair to go at it, so must be a fair chance they'll do the same again?

[Tonibell]

The Great God Algorithm. I can still get a bet on with Pads. Lads, however, 0.40.

[doubleup]

Love the Makzeem bet [cue missing the jump, him pulling his head off etc].

Saw this on Flatstats twitter. Sample size but doesn't hurt to know.

I subscribe to flatstats but some of the stats they come up with are complete super-roflers.  They are just noise miners.

LOL at noise miners. I'm not a subscriber for that reason but 'Quick returners' seems like a meaningful metric in that it refers directly to intentional trainer behaviour not post hoc stuff (Prescott another obvious one). Definitely not putting it up as a sole reason for the bet, though.

Cheers, Horseplayer for Two for Two. Roger fell definitely 'one to watch' *cough, cough &c*.

When you are just mining stats obviously some of them seem sensible, but the truth is that they are no more valid than grey horses on Tuesday.


edit: btw grey horses on Tuesday from flatstats

Runs   1667           £1 Win BSP    £401.80   (24.1%)