Tips for Tikay

[engy]

is it not just a reference to the stat stuff posted couple of pages back?

[doubleup]

is it not just a reference to the stat stuff posted couple of pages back?

yes just a bad joke on my part no offence intended

and  at Ralph's post

[The Camel]

Big Orange has apparently made the long trip with no major ill effects according to Michael Bell. Drawn 7, the horse has a decent chance (imo) if Spencer takes up the running - or at least runs close to the pace before taking it up 4f from home.

At 12/1 (evryday) 1/4 even for just 4 places I think this is a decent bet.

I'm already on at this price. I can place another bet for Fred if wanted.

Surely you've just not said "If spencer takes up the running", we all know he's always at the back regardless of horse or race.

Funnily enough, he does indeed take some his mounts to the front. He's as good a judge of pace as Dettori, and I just wish he'd do it more often so that he gave his horses more of a chance.

lol system of the day


jockey not = JP Spencer

last time out jockey = JP Spencer

last time out finishing position = last

Runs   233   Wins   18   (7.7%)    £1 Win BSP   £154.18   (66.2% ROI)

Is that stat for real?

[arbboy]

Anyone get the 2/5 Stoke to stay up a couple of weeks ago?

[doubleup]

Big Orange has apparently made the long trip with no major ill effects according to Michael Bell. Drawn 7, the horse has a decent chance (imo) if Spencer takes up the running - or at least runs close to the pace before taking it up 4f from home.

At 12/1 (evryday) 1/4 even for just 4 places I think this is a decent bet.

I'm already on at this price. I can place another bet for Fred if wanted.

Surely you've just not said "If spencer takes up the running", we all know he's always at the back regardless of horse or race.

Funnily enough, he does indeed take some his mounts to the front. He's as good a judge of pace as Dettori, and I just wish he'd do it more often so that he gave his horses more of a chance.

lol system of the day


jockey not = JP Spencer

last time out jockey = JP Spencer

last time out finishing position = last

Runs   233   Wins   18   (7.7%)    £1 Win BSP   £154.18   (66.2% ROI)

Is that stat for real?

It is real, but like most of these stats it relies on big priced winners (there is a 105-1 bfsp in there)

[doubleup]

rofl it works spectacularly better for Ryan Moore

Runs   162   Wins   14   (8.6%)    £1 Win BSP    £419.87   (259.2%)

altho one of the winners in the sample is 469-1 bfsp....

[4KSuited]

Don't think doubleup was taking the piss, unless I've got the wrong end of the stick.

I'm still trying to figure out the deep meaning of his last post but rest assured you would be in no doubt if he was having a dig.

OK, that's good enough for me. There's a propensity for some caustic remarks on here, so I'm guilty of reading more than was intended in the comment.

In fact now that I understand the post/stat ...... 

[Marky147]

Don't think doubleup was taking the piss, unless I've got the wrong end of the stick.

I'm still trying to figure out the deep meaning of his last post but rest assured you would be in no doubt if he was having a dig.

I didn't try to, but figured it was something to do with the stats from Saturday, as engy said.

Agreed on the last part

[T_Mar]

Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet

Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but  Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year.  He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up

Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.

12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good

Recommend 25ew @ 11/1

Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?

Bink!

Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was  quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.

[Chompy]

Jamie Spencer is one of the best judges of pace around imo. I'd have him up there with JKFanning but he doesn't ride as many from the front obv. Give him a year as Johnston's first jockey and this myth would be blown away.

Even since his incredible record on the straight course at Ascot was flagged up, he's continued to make the rest look like jokers.

He gets a similar amount of stick to Cash Asmussen back in the day. Another fantastic jockey.

[horseplayer]

Great shout t mar

[Doobs]

Melbourne Cup has 24 runners but with a load of rags and some books paying 5 places it looks good for an EW bet

Nothing I can add form wise that isn't easily available on the internet but  Almandin is lightly raced, in form, who has a course win last time out - Like everything else in the race this has been the plan all year.  He's never run over 2m which might seem like negative but has lots of stamina in pedigree and may well improve for step up

Stall 17 is ok if not ideal.

12.5 to back on BF, you can get 11/1 5 places with koral or baldy so place terms look good

Recommend 25ew @ 11/1

Welcome any other thoughts from anyone on the race?

Bink!

Great finish, might have been physically sick if Heartbreak City had won, really like the horse but as I think doobs mentioned was  quite a bit under BF price along with other British raiders so was reluctant pass - Was also drawn very wide.

Good stuff.

[rinswun]

Well done t mar

[TightEnd]

October 2016 Figures

Closed bets: 62
Amount wagered: £ 2,866.37
Profit/loss: £ 40.13
ROI:  1.40

Number of "sports" bet on: 12
Most popular: Horses (24), MotorSport (9), Golf (6), Tennis (6)
Most profitable: Horses ( £ 229.63), Golf (£ 182.50), Cricket( £50.00)
Least profitable: MotorSport (-£ 107.00), Tennis (-£ 100.00), Football (-£ 95.00)

Number of tipsters: 18 including 1 new tipster.

Going forward.

Open bets: 44
Amount staked: £ 1,234.60

Overall statistics (since February 2012)

Total closed bets: 6,066
Amount wagered: £ 182,599.06
Profit/loss: £ 13,911.38
ROI:  7.62%

Number of "sports" bet on: 30
Most popular:  Horses (1,433), Football (1,349), Golf (446), MotorSport (389).

Most and least profitable sports (based on aggregate profit/loss) are:
         
Sport     Profit  Amt Bet    ROI   No.
Football 5,623.50   42,543.22   13.22 1,349
Horses 3,031.13   47,887.86   6.33   1,433
Misc.   1,930.50   8,014.39   24.09   210

Snooker-347.50   1,841.00   -18.88   48
RU   -442.19   4,853.29   -9.11   258
Boxing   -528.01   3,508.92   -15.05   88

The complete list is here:
http://bit.ly/1SVMlbq

Total number of tipsters: 195

Archived bets:

2015   http://bit.ly/1rqbcrT

2014  http://bit.ly/1UovMUW

Pre-2014  http://bit.ly/1QIg2Fg

[Horneris]

Stunning T Mar