Tips for Tikay

[bergeroo]

Interesting to see people so bullish about Thiem, I just wish he would take a few more weeks off! There is certainly a vacuum at the top of the claycourt pile with the decline of Rafa. Fwiw - Thiem is 33/1 for the French next year...

Quarter finals in Paris but no real intriguing matches here for me so I likely won't watch much... Also agree that the WT Finals is not a great tournament. Players often injured, tired after a long season. Doesn't seem prestigious or exciting to me, just a pay day for the top guys and moneyspinner for the O2

Novak with a 13-0 record vs Cilic. I really like Cilic the times I've seen him recently, but I can't bring myself to bet him at 4.5. Novak was poor in parts vs Dimitrov, but the Bulgarian wasn't tough enough to finish him off and Djoko played better in the second set. I fancy he will have enough to get it done, but it won't be a classic and it might take him three sets.

I was really hoping Isner v Sock would be priced as a flip, but sadly they've got Sock down as a favourite so I'm going to keep my powder dry. Isner has a 4-3 record but I'm not sure it is hugely relevant as the first three of those matches was when Sock was ranked very low. They met once on Clay this year with Sock winning, but again I'm not sure it has huge relevance. I won't be watching as I find Isner affairs highly turgid. Still a great chance for one of these guys to pick up some ranking points and for Sock to potentially crack the top 20.

Del Potro has been a landmine in the first round of every tournament since he came back. Now he finally should get high enough in the rankings to get in the seeding spots. He is one year younger than Murray/Djokovic. I see no reason why he couldn't win a major. Federer and Nadal are mostly gone (although Nadal could easily win another French if he gets it together for two weeks) but I currently don't see who is going to step up and start winning the slams when Murray/Novak get too old/retire. I wonder if the time he had off with his wrist will allow him to extend his career and play a little older as there has been less wear and tear on the rest of his body, there might be a window of a couple of seasons when he can be at the top as the big two begin to decline. For now I see him always as a live outsider and someone the top guys will not want to draw.

I've had a little dabble outright on Murray last night at 13/8, stand out price with the bald man. I think right now he is favourite in a match up with Novak. He will have the tougher semi final but Novak has the tougher 1/4 final and we know Murray can get it done vs Tsonga or Raonic and let's not forget his long unbeaten run dating back to the Del Potro Davis Cup match in mid-September.

[hhyftrftdr]

Can Fred empty the clip on Negredo to score for the smoggies at City tomorrow please? I've never been more certain of anything in my life.

Fun fact; about 10 years ago, Boro won 1-0 at Eastlands despite not having a shot on or off target all game.

[Karabiner]

Can Fred empty the clip on Negredo to score for the smoggies at City tomorrow please? I've never been more certain of anything in my life.

Fun fact; about 10 years ago, Boro won 1-0 at Eastlands despite not having a shot on or off target all game.

They beat Arsenal 3-1 a few years ago at The Grove with only one shot on target too.

[Horneris]

The tennis discussion lately had been superb. Thanks for posting guys. I'm a total tennis fish, is del potro ever likely to contend for a major again?

Huge yes from me. He will compete for sure and I think he will win another. His pounding game is pretty much all surface, I was thinking the most likely GS wins would be on hard at the Aussie or US Opens then I did a little digging and saw some very close French Open QF and SF losses to Nadal and Federer in the past and I have memories of some epic battles vs Djokovic at Wimby.

Don't get me wrong, he still has some work to do on his conditioning, but his game is there. He has been beating the top players over 3 sets since his comeback from long term injury but I've noticed at both Wimbledon and the US his fitness after a few long 5 set matches, hasn't been quite there.

He can do that work in the off season though you'd think so I expect him to be close next season  

Bergeroo, Alex Zverev will the world number #1 in 6/7 years.

[Weetabix]

You could say delpo over the last 3-4 months has played as well as any player considering where he has come from injury wise.  He played one hell of an Olympics, a decent run at the us open, but the biggest sign for me was his win over Murray in the Davis cup, he was outstanding.  I think what is more amazing is the fact he is doing this with a handicap, being he rarely hits a two handed backhand due to the wrist problems (tsonga should take note, and raonic).  I think one you you touched on delpo's ranking, that will help him at the slams and with little ranking points to defend he will shoot up the rankings, I see no reason why he can't be a semi finalist and finalist at the slams on a regular basis if he stays healthy. 

Bergeroo you mentioned Murray to beat tsonga 2-0 the other day at 4/7, I think you have an even bigger case today v berdych, albeit 4/9.  This is one of the huge mismatch tennis matches we have right now.  Cilic should give Djokovic a decent match today, cilic full of himself after a nice run of form( I was wondering when betway were going to cut his 40/1 quote for the o2). It seems the bookies have a fascination with raonic, installed as 4th fav yet again for a big tournament, this is complete madness.   Cilic has a case for being 3rd or 4th fav, raonic should be behind 6 of the players in the pecking order.

Zverev number one chances will depend heavily on his conditioning over the next few years, his movement and speed have to improve massively, you can't compete in today's game without devastating speed and great movement, look at berdych, perfect example.

[bergeroo]

Bergeroo you mentioned Murray to beat tsonga 2-0 the other day at 4/7, I think you have an even bigger case today v berdych, albeit 4/9.  This is one of the huge mismatch tennis matches we have right now. 

I'm on at 1/2!

[Weetabix]

You have done well getting 1/2, must have lasted all of two minutes.  He made a meal of putting Simon away last night who was playing on one leg.

[bergeroo]

You have done well getting 1/2, must have lasted all of two minutes.  He made a meal of putting Simon away last night who was playing on one leg.

1/2 still there with S.Bet

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/tomas-berdych-v-andy-murray/set-betting

[Weetabix]

It's 2/5 on oddschecker app and via skybet website

[bergeroo]

Sporting bet! But guess most people don't have an account there?

Never know if there is a reason why people don't actually write the bookmakers and use nicknames? Because of LOLtraders using the search function?

[Weetabix]

My mistake, thought you meant sky.  Don't use the other lot.

[tikay]

Sporting bet! But guess most people don't have an account there?

Never know if there is a reason why people don't actually write the bookmakers and use nicknames? Because of LOLtraders using the search function?

That is the logic, yes, but bookies & their traders don't spend all day perusing Fred, you can be assured. They just need to take a few early bets in relatively thin markets & that's all the info they need. 

[nellberg]

many won't be able to get on, and Patrick's price won't hold for long but:

1st test, India v England

Rashid over 1.5 wickets, 21/20 with Koral, BMU
Rashid under 2.5 wickets, evens with Patrick

Rashid has only taken 3 wickets in the 1st innings from his 5 tests, but we can hope for the 2 wickets bink here :-)

Unders is the better bet, especially as we will go with a 6-bowler attack. Probably a bet on its own but for those who want a risk-free sweat it's available.

http://www.bettingkingdom.co.uk/betting-tips/cricket/Test-Series/1st-test-India-v-England-Rashid-under-2-5-wickets/74524

[bergeroo]

Thanks for the cricket bet!

For those who were bullish on AFC Wimbledon. They are above 2/1 for the FA Cup vs Bury who have lost seven in a row. Thoughts? Full strength team from the Dons? Good price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/bury-v-afc-wimbledon/winner

[RickBFA]

Thanks for the cricket bet!

For those who were bullish on AFC Wimbledon. They are above 2/1 for the FA Cup vs Bury who have lost seven in a row. Thoughts? Full strength team from the Dons? Good price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/bury-v-afc-wimbledon/winner

FWIW I backed Wimbledon at 2/1 earlier today.

Also backed Accrington at 6/1 away at Bradford.

Think both are a bit of value, just think Bradford may have their eye on the league.