Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Some yank hick wagon in the studio put up that winner at 14/1 (bf sp 30/1!!!!!!  available for bundles at 50/1 earlier).  You got to love the yanks.  VUL doobs.  Cheers for the steer on tenpin. 

Cheers Arb

Go easy on Bergeroo.  He has started some decent tennis discussion on here the last week or so.  Cheers

[arbboy]

why would you be happy to hear arb thinks something is a bad bet

I think Arb knows a lot about tennis and betting. If I look stupid and he corrects me or disagrees with me then I've either learnt something or have some food for thought to ponder for future bets/handicapping etc.

Just because i disagree with you doesn't mean i am 'right'.  I am wrong 30 or 40 times a day.  I lay dozens of winners every day.  I just back my opinion with my money.  That is what the game is all about.  Why it is fun and beats working!

[Weetabix]

Ironicus given way too much to do.  Hell of a turn of foot.

[arbboy]

Some yank hick wagon in the studio put up that winner at 14/1 (bf sp 30/1!!!!!!  available for bundles at 50/1 earlier).  You got to love the yanks.  VUL doobs.  Cheers for the steer on tenpin. 

Cheers Arb

Go easy on Bergeroo.  He has started some decent tennis discussion on here the last week or so.  Cheers

I agree which is why i am getting involved because it is nice to have some debate with people who will actually give a reason for their decision on a tennis bet and clearly are knowledge about tennis unlike some so called 'judges'.  I am happy to be proved wrong.  Murray might not be a 4/6 poke to win a first set breaker but i am happy to back him now at that price without any machine price to follow. 

[bergeroo]

Sent a PM!

I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.

Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?

Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.

Why do you say the breaker is closer than 6/4 but don't PM me with a bet amount you want to place?  I don't get it.  You tell other people to back something but you are not happy to put your own money down with me.  Why is that?  It doesn't have to be a big amount whatever is comfortable with yourself rollwise.  It makes you look silly to say you make it much closer than 6/4, i offer you whatever you want at 6/4 and you don't back it for a copper coin.   Why wouldn't you want to bet the 6/4 given your statement?

[bergeroo]

According to ATP website - Is that an accurate source of stats, I assume so?

Isner has won 62.2% of career tiebreaks, Murray 62.1%

On hard courts
Isner 63.6%, Murray 59.4%

Last 52 weeks Isner is slipping which mirrors his somewhat disappointing season
Isner 50%, Murray on par 62.5%

2015
Isner 63.2%, Murray 41.2%

[arbboy]

Sent a PM!

I messed up the above stat, he has had a tiebreaker about 50% of the time and he has won more than 50% of those.

Anyhow I've bet. I'm happy to hear you think that it is a bad bet. Just as a guess what would you say the correct price of 7-6 Isner first set tomorrow Arb or anyone?

Where do you get that he is 6/4 shot to beat Murray in a breaker? I'd say it is closer than that.

Why do you say the breaker is closer than 6/4 but don't PM me with a bet amount you want to place?  I don't get it.  You tell other people to back something but you are not happy to put your own money down with me.  Why is that?  It doesn't have to be a big amount whatever is comfortable with yourself rollwise.  It makes you look silly to say you make it much closer than 6/4, i offer you whatever you want at 6/4 and you don't back it for a copper coin.   Why wouldn't you want to bet the 6/4 given your statement?

Replied!

[Weetabix]

Any idea what price Murray was 6-1 down v berdych yesterday?  You should have played the lotto this weekend Bergeroo after tag escape on the 2-0.  I don't know if you would have Murray any bigger than 4/6, 8/11 probably borderline.  I know it's isner but a big serve doesn't always mean you are a tie break beast.  Look at ivo's record, it's not that good at all.  Ivo is having a career best season.    Isner is in trouble once a ball is returned but Murray could just roll his served in and he will win 9/10 rallies v isner, lottery time.

[bergeroo]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

-----

Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

[arbboy]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

-----

Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

Murray has 15k people cheering him on in London, he is buzzing after being named world number 1 for the first time in his career and gets to sleep in his own bed every night and get driven to the o2 every day after having bfast at home with his missus and kid.  Just three reasons why he is so short next week compared to his Aussie price. 

PS if anyone is going on the Wednesday i will be there for both sessions with my mum so if you are around come and have a drink and say hello to Arb and Mrs Arb senior.  She knows more about tennis than me.

[Doobs]

Not sure why you'd want to lay more than Betfair on Tepin in the mile at 23.40, but Hills seem to want to.  The betfair price looks too big to me, so no idea why you'd want to go bigger.

I mean I really like Limato, but he is running over the wrong trip and Tepin is a bit of a beast.  Makes no sense.  Guess there is little chance of Tighty or Tikay popping by, but £50 Tepin with Hills at 4/1 seems a good idea. 

Alice Springs for me in this

Any thoughts in the Classic? Looks like good EW if we can get 1/4 odds the place
 

Probably a bit slow as the Tepin 4/1 has gone, but an each way double on that and Arrogate just can't be bad.  Got to be up early in the morning

Arrogate near 2/1 on betfair now.  Place double looking good anyway

[Marky147]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

-----

Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

Murray has 15k people cheering him on in London, he is buzzing after being named world number 1 for the first time in his career and gets to sleep in his own bed every night and get driven to the o2 every day after having bfast at home with his missus and kid.  Just three reasons why he is so short next week compared to his Aussie price. 

PS if anyone is going on the Wednesday i will be there for both sessions with my mum so if you are around come and have a drink and say hello to Arb and Mrs Arb senior.  She knows more about tennis than me.

But did you get the Stella genes from Mother Arb? Or has that been developed purely through years of effort by yourself?

[Weetabix]

Djoko dominates in oz, I think you have to look at djoko and what he has done for the last 3 seasons, this superb run only lost it's legs after he finally captured the French.  It's no coincidence in my view he has struggled since he won it, you don't just lose your game over night.  The only thing he hasn't achieved is the number of slams federer reached (still time but I don't think he will make it), the guy is probably mentally exhausted. It's all down to djoko's hunger in 2017, if he wants to do it all again he probably will and Murray will continue to play 2nd best, the number 1 spot was going to Murray in 2017 anyway if he didn't make it before this week, djoko had too many points to defend and Murray just needed to make semis and finals again to take the top spot.

I don't see federer being in the mix at all Bergeroo, of course he will still knock of the top 4 players but can't see him beating two of them in back to back matches best of 5 now and of course you have nishikori and wawrinka amongst them.   Quite amazing that as good as Murray has been over all these years yet Stan is the one on the same amount of slam wins and one away from a career grand slam.

Arb, Murray has played he for years and never seems to be at his best. It's not as important to him as many people think.  It's more about just making the top 8 after a long season yet the tennis on a whole year on year out is pretty crap, can count on one hand how many great matches I have seen.  Monfils is a great addition btw, about time, a player of his ability should be here every year .

[bergeroo]

Any idea what price Murray was 6-1 down v berdych yesterday?  You should have played the lotto this weekend Bergeroo after tag escape on the 2-0.  I don't know if you would have Murray any bigger than 4/6, 8/11 probably borderline.  I know it's isner but a big serve doesn't always mean you are a tie break beast.  Look at ivo's record, it's not that good at all.  Ivo is having a career best season.    Isner is in trouble once a ball is returned but Murray could just roll his served in and he will win 9/10 rallies v isner, lottery time.

I was listening to commentary but wasn't really online during the match so not sure of in running prices...!

Obv I have no data, but my view is that Isner is still a dog but shorter than 6/4. My opinion is that the price is closer in the first set than in others particularly the third as Murray has better fitness and is also better under pressure points playing in the clutch. I'm probably wrong but now we have a little side action to keep it fun!

Interesting article namedropping Isner here. Written at the end of March so his data has slumped a little since then.
http://www.sportdw.com/2015/03/tennis-tiebreak-performance.html

[arbboy]

Obv Murray will probably win like 6-1, 6-2 again but let's see!

-----

Interesting odds here - will write in decimal odds as that's what I usually use

Is Djok suddenly going to arrest his decline his form and be supreme again by the time they get to OZ next year? Is Murray suddenly going to drop off a bit? Why aren't these events priced up about the same between the two of them?  She fits in perfectly at the o2 and cheekily goes to the returns desk and confidently expects our tickets to be upgraded to VIP just because she is a charming old lady and the seats need filling.  I certainly didn't get her charm assets at birth!

World Tour Finals (next week)
Djok 2.5
Murray 2.38

Aussie open
Djok 2.38
Murray 3.25

To add. Obviously you've got Del Potro and Fed to add into the mix in Australia as well, but why do they take a chunk of our Muzza but Djoko remains similar between the two events (in fact even a bit shorter) - is it just a really bad price for Djoko rather than anything else?

Murray has 15k people cheering him on in London, he is buzzing after being named world number 1 for the first time in his career and gets to sleep in his own bed every night and get driven to the o2 every day after having bfast at home with his missus and kid.  Just three reasons why he is so short next week compared to his Aussie price.  

PS if anyone is going on the Wednesday i will be there for both sessions with my mum so if you are around come and have a drink and say hello to Arb and Mrs Arb senior.  She knows more about tennis than me.

But did you get the Stella genes from Mother Arb? Or has that been developed purely through years of effort by yourself?

Mother Arb more of a middle England/Scotland by genes Daily mail Chablis drinker!  Pretty sure she has never touched a drop of Stella in her life.   I am the black sheep of the family as a punter!