Tips for Tikay

[T_Mar]

I'm not normally a big antepost punter but had a good look through the BV Golf Cup on Saturday last night and found a bet I like.

There are 23 entries at 5 day stage and would imagine we'll end up with between 16-20 making it a good EW race - I wouldn't expect there to be more than 7 NR's but betting AP secures the 4 places (or 6 with sponsors) if there was - We saw an unexpected high number in the Nov hcap due to ground and it's been very dry in Cheltenham by all accounts and couple of trainers already hoping for change in weather - This is some rain forecast Friday but wouldn't want to second guess it

The current Fav is Frodon who is a nice horse I'm sure but can't have a 4yo as fav in a race as competitive as this - It's only run3 times over fences (think it ran as a 3yo in France actually) but I'm still happy to take it on in this race where they'll be going hell for leather from the outset

More of that is next in market and is the class being a World Hurdle winner - Obviously this one is potentially well hcap'd and JJ Oneil has won race couple of times in recent years but the horse disappointed somewhat in the RSA after coming into the race of a lay off (broke blood vessels) and its missed its intended prep for this at Carlisle couple of weeks ago due to ground - Trainer and Jockey already saying they want some rain so there has to be a small chance it doesn't line up if stays dry and even if it does I'd be happy going against it at <8/1

Nichols had confirmed he has 4 intended runners in this - Frodon obviously being the 'exciting' one

As De Mee was running in G1's all last year and Nichols has always said he thought slot of him - could be well hcapped  but would probably want softer ground and can see it being same price as it is now on the day so wouldn't be in a rush to take s price now. 

Art Mauresque makes least appeal of the 4 - He's on a little bit of a roll winning last 2 but he's 9lb higher than when he finished 6th in this race last year and I'm not sure he's well enough hcap'd

This race is  a very strong trends race and Nichols 4th runner Beuvreuil just about fits the profile perfectly being a second season chaser, having less than 10 chase starts, is rated 146-148 and has strong previous Cheltenham form (has come 2nd twice at the festival in big field hcaps - including last year.

The slight niggle with this one is lack of a recent run but Harry Dernham has written this has been the long term target so despite not settling and finishing down the field in its reappearance in the greatwood last year You'd have to assume Nichols will have him ready - Back to the trends and 8/14 winners of this we're having there seasonal debut

Market seems to have As De Mee and Art Mauresque slightly ahead of Beuvreuil and I think that's wrong - I see this as the stable second string behind Frodon and possibly the price is due to uncertainty over jockey booking - Sam Twiston Davies has a medical tomorrow I believe reading the RP to confirm whether he is fit enough to ride at the weekend - Price will contract if he is confirmed for this one which looks very likely

The horse was also recently bought by JP Macmanus - So there is also an outside chance Geraghty could ride if More of That didn't line up, which again would impact price

I can definitely see this one building momentum throughout the week given its profile and can see it going off more like an 8/1 shot -

Of the others Double Shuffle looks to have a similar chance but is 8/1 now following a decent prep run and is slightly worse off with Beuvreil on last years Festival run.

Nothing else makes too much appeal at this stage being too high in the weights or on the comeback trail

Market isn't developed on BF yet so no real guide there but I'm going to stick my neck out  - I think 14/1 is a big price

Recommend 20ew Beuvreiil @ 14/1 general or 12/1 6 places with BV for those that can

Antepost rules apply !!

[T_Mar]

Jesus - Didn't realise I'd written that much - Apoligies if you fell asleep half way through

[tikay]

Jesus - Didn't realise I'd written that much - Apoligies if you fell asleep half way through

It's a great & very well thought out write up, & a good read, so don't worry about that.

Fred does not have BMU these days, & it would pain to take worse place odds elsewhere, but no matter, it may well interest others.

Reading what you wrote made me insta think of Adzy, who is so good at the jumps game & generally has sound observations. Fingers crossed he'll be back with us soon.  

[T_Mar]

Jesus - Didn't realise I'd written that much - Apoligies if you fell asleep half way through

It's a great & very well thought out write up, & a good read, so don't worry about that.

Fred does not have BMU these days, & it would pain to take worse place odds elsewhere, but no matter, it may well interest others.

Reading what you wrote made me insta think of Adzy, who is so good at the jumps game & generally has sound observations. Fingers crossed he'll be back with us soon.  

14/1 4 places is good if you want to bet (is what I've done)  - Wasn't purely targeting the BV offer

[tikay]

Jesus - Didn't realise I'd written that much - Apoligies if you fell asleep half way through

It's a great & very well thought out write up, & a good read, so don't worry about that.

Fred does not have BMU these days, & it would pain to take worse place odds elsewhere, but no matter, it may well interest others.

Reading what you wrote made me insta think of Adzy, who is so good at the jumps game & generally has sound observations. Fingers crossed he'll be back with us soon.  

14/1 4 places is good if you want to bet (is what I've done)  - Wasn't purely targeting the BV offer

Thanks.

Is 14/1 4 places much better or worse than 12/1 6 places?

I should add I'm very busy with work right now, & am a bit lost with some of these finer details. Tighty is intermittently AWOL at the mo, too, as he has some family illness issues to contend with.

I'll probably get on board shortly, unless any major negatives become evident. 

[tikay]

^^^^

I've reserved Fred's position by taking £20 EW @ 14/1 (4 places, qtr odds) with Mr Hill.

I'll take the bet myself if we hear some strong negatives.

Let's say the bet becomes Booked for Fred by Noon today unless a good case can be made otherwise.

Thanks. 

[tikay]

Ha, Doobs, Mr Maths, is itt. Maybe I should have waited, but no matter.

[T_Mar]

Jesus - Didn't realise I'd written that much - Apoligies if you fell asleep half way through

It's a great & very well thought out write up, & a good read, so don't worry about that.

Fred does not have BMU these days, & it would pain to take worse place odds elsewhere, but no matter, it may well interest others.

Reading what you wrote made me insta think of Adzy, who is so good at the jumps game & generally has sound observations. Fingers crossed he'll be back with us soon.  

14/1 4 places is good if you want to bet (is what I've done)  - Wasn't purely targeting the BV offer

Thanks.

Is 14/1 4 places much better or worse than 12/1 6 places?

I should add I'm very busy with work right now, & am a bit lost with some of these finer details. Tighty is intermittently AWOL at the mo, too, as he has some family illness issues to contend with.

I'll probably get on board shortly, unless any major negatives become evident. 

If the market was well formed on BF and and we could get a similar win price with the 6 places that would be my preference - However it's not and my reason for bet is more based on my view that price is going to be a lot shorter on day - So both are fine at this stage I think with 6 places being slightly less variant obv

Unlesso anyone else has strong view I think there is not much in at this stage

[Rod Paradise]

Can get 12's on bv if Fred wants?

[superwomble]

In case you missed it, Wm Hill sent this note out overnight, presumably to all their Sports Betting customers;


If you go to your William Hill account you will find a £5 free bet waiting.

We want to give you this following a tough week that saw our website and products targeted by a well-documented DDOS attack. During this period we were not able to offer you the level of service we pride ourselves upon.

Terms & Conditions

Free bets must be placed within 14 days of award otherwise they will expire.

Free bet stakes are not returned as part of the settlement of successful free bets.

Free bets can be spent on any bet type except to fund tote, pool or lottery bets.

Free bets are non-refundable.

Free bets cannot be redeemed on any other online product (Poker, Casino, Vegas, Bingo, Skill, Games).

Free bet stake not included in any winnings

Your free bet must be used as one single transaction and cannot be partially redeemed.

Redeemed free bets will not qualify for any future free bets. Qualifying bets must be placed from the customer funded balance.

Redeemed free bets will not count toward qualification to view streamed events.

More information is available here explaining how to enter your promo code and how to redeem your free bet.

They sent me:

If you go to your William Hill account you will find £5 cash waiting.
We want to give you this following a tough week that saw our website and products targeted by a well-documented DDOS attack. During this period we were not able to offer you the level of service we pride ourselves upon.

[doubleup]

Surely Clinton 360 EC votes @ 13-1 or so in Betfair is to big?  She is under 6-1 to win Georgia and a late swing that took Georgia would surely mean a sweep of all the battleground states as they are correlated.   Thoughts?

[tikay]

Can get 12's on bv if Fred wants?

Thanks Rod.

I'm not sure what to do now, tbh, as I've taken 14/1 4 places & got in it reserve.

Give me an hour or so please, if you don't mind, and if 12/1 6 places is much better, we'll take it & I'll keep the 14/1 off thread.

Any advice from Team Maths would be appreciated.

I'll confirm yes or no by midday if that's OK with you.

   

[Doobs]

Can get 12's on bv if Fred wants?

Thanks Rod.

I'm not sure what to do now, tbh, as I've taken 14/1 4 places & got in it reserve.

Give me an hour or so please, if you don't mind, and if 12/1 6 places is much better, we'll take it & I'll keep the 14/1 off thread.

Any advice from Team Maths would be appreciated.

I'll confirm yes or no by midday if that's OK with you.

   

14/1 4 places looks fine.

[tikay]

Can get 12's on bv if Fred wants?

Thanks Rod.

I'm not sure what to do now, tbh, as I've taken 14/1 4 places & got in it reserve.

Give me an hour or so please, if you don't mind, and if 12/1 6 places is much better, we'll take it & I'll keep the 14/1 off thread.

Any advice from Team Maths would be appreciated.

I'll confirm yes or no by midday if that's OK with you.

   

14/1 4 places looks fine.

Thanks David.

[tikay]

In case you missed it, Wm Hill sent this note out overnight, presumably to all their Sports Betting customers;


If you go to your William Hill account you will find a £5 free bet waiting.

We want to give you this following a tough week that saw our website and products targeted by a well-documented DDOS attack. During this period we were not able to offer you the level of service we pride ourselves upon.

Terms & Conditions

Free bets must be placed within 14 days of award otherwise they will expire.

Free bet stakes are not returned as part of the settlement of successful free bets.

Free bets can be spent on any bet type except to fund tote, pool or lottery bets.

Free bets are non-refundable.

Free bets cannot be redeemed on any other online product (Poker, Casino, Vegas, Bingo, Skill, Games).

Free bet stake not included in any winnings

Your free bet must be used as one single transaction and cannot be partially redeemed.

Redeemed free bets will not qualify for any future free bets. Qualifying bets must be placed from the customer funded balance.

Redeemed free bets will not count toward qualification to view streamed events.

More information is available here explaining how to enter your promo code and how to redeem your free bet.

They sent me:

If you go to your William Hill account you will find £5 cash waiting.
We want to give you this following a tough week that saw our website and products targeted by a well-documented DDOS attack. During this period we were not able to offer you the level of service we pride ourselves upon.

Isn't that odd - they gave me a £5 Free Bet, & you got "£5 cash".

I assume you cannot withdraw that fiver?