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Jamier-Host
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« Reply #123825 on: December 04, 2016, 10:59:22 PM »


Loved barry hearns statement about the job worths.  No room for players expecting benefits on this tour.  If you want to make a living on this tour win matches.  If you don't you are more than welcome to get a job elsewhere.  I love Hearn's angle that the top players make the game the money but his system really doesn't support the top 16 money wise like the old system.

I thought the prize money segment was interesting too. They talked about expenses, but presumably all players get a few quid from the patches they wear for TV events etc. Must also be handy if you come from a town/area short of sporting talent so you can bag some random local appearance gigs!

Ronnie was talking earlier in the week about how some of the guys on the pro tour can't play (with Davis head in hands) but popped up again here saying he was better than them when he was 11. Don't mince your words...
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« Reply #123826 on: December 04, 2016, 11:07:05 PM »


Loved barry hearns statement about the job worths.  No room for players expecting benefits on this tour.  If you want to make a living on this tour win matches.  If you don't you are more than welcome to get a job elsewhere.  I love Hearn's angle that the top players make the game the money but his system really doesn't support the top 16 money wise like the old system.

I thought the prize money segment was interesting too. They talked about expenses, but presumably all players get a few quid from the patches they wear for TV events etc. Must also be handy if you come from a town/area short of sporting talent so you can bag some random local appearance gigs!

Ronnie was talking earlier in the week about how some of the guys on the pro tour can't play (with Davis head in hands) but popped up again here saying he was better than them when he was 11. Don't mince your words...

Why should he mince his words he is right.  So many of these pros are garbage and being gifted a living even having a tour card.  The top 5 in any sport are always under paid relative to the revenue they generate the sport.  The others always earn less but live off their coattails whatever their egos think.  Without the top 5 they would always earn less.
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« Reply #123827 on: December 04, 2016, 11:17:19 PM »

Yeah I don't mind it. Makes a change to see someone say what they think compared to footballers who have so much media training they might as well be on mute as you can recite the guff they recycle in every post match interview.

Did you see the interview he did with Davis in the weird taxi segment? Says he wants to spend 6 months in Kenya so he can train properly for a marathon. Prob still come back and knock off semis+ in UK, Masters, Worlds or whatever.
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« Reply #123828 on: December 05, 2016, 03:24:31 AM »

NBA ramblings

I play Draftkings NBA most days so have been following the league and watching lots of games this year.

Russell Westbrook is 7/2 for regular season MVP in the NBA on unibet/888. If you have those bookies then I think this is a bet. The guy has been amazing this year just night after night. For those who don't follow NBA that much Oklahoma were led by Westbrook and Durant. In the close season Durant went over and joined the already star studded Golden State team. Westbrook has led this team alone this year, many predicted that they wouldn't make the playoffs but they are currently 12-8 and winning again tonight, currently ranked as 6th seed. His production has been tremendous, regularly raking up triple doubles (double figures in points, assists, rebounds) and has just done five in a row, the first person to do this since Jordan. Commentators and fans are getting really excited about his production and it is a great narrative of him leading the team on his own after the departure of Durant.

Of his rivals for the award. Durant and Curry are now on the same team so cancel each other out a bit. Durant has had a strong season and Curry has been quieter (at least by his standards), the strategy with LeBron clearly seems to not excert him too much so he is 100% for the play offs. He has had a few poor games of late (by his high standards), a night off. But you know, he is LeBron and is the best player in the league, he is just a bit older and focused on titles rather than personal performance.  I would expect him to play lower minutes towards the end of the regular season when the Cavs playoff berth is secured. I would say Curry and LeBron are way way too short here, Durant is a bit of a fairer price.

Leonard is a tremendous player and started the season with some eyecatching performances - I believe Fred had a bet on him for MVP? His issue is that he plays for a defensive minded team, so his number are always likely to be a little bit down compared to Westbrook and Harden. He still definitely has a shot as it is a long season, especially if he can lead the Spurs to the number one seeding.

The other man having an amazing season is James Harden. Similar position to Westbrook in that it is somewhat of a one man team. Houston safely in the playoff spots right now. He is 15/2 with Victor and that could offer some value. Also putting up fantastic numbers in a fast paced, attack minded team.

Of the others, I don't think Griffin and Paul of the Clippers can win this. Anthony Davis is a live outsider, but he has already suffered several injuries and his team is struggling so far compared to Houston and Oklahoma City. DeRozan of Toronto has shot such a high % from the field so far that I don't think that can last for the whole season and Lillard of Portland blows somewhat hot and cold and is not a dominant player like some of the others I have already mentioned

I actually see it as between Westbrook and Harden with Westbrook as a strong favourite, but I've taken a little saver on Harden. If you haven't got a bet on this market yet and don't mind tying your money up til the spring then I really like Westbrook at 7/2.

Thoughts anyone?

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

EDIT - if you bet it then maybe you want to throw it in a double with Embiid for Rookie of the year at a short price. I'd say he has this locked up unless he gets injured. He has been only playing alternate games for 24 minutes (now raised to a 28 maximum) and is really exciting when he gets on the court, a big man who can dominate inside but also shoot the three. None of the other rookies have really stood out or put together a string of performances. The only other interest I'd have would be Murray at 25s with Victor.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/rookie-of-the-year

======
Updates for other NBA bets.

James Harden is currently 4th in points per game with 28.3, behind Cousins 28.7, Westbrook 31.2 and Davis 31.5. Not feeling too optimistic about this one, I think one of Westbrook or Davis are going to take it.

Karl Anthony Towns has had some headline performances at centre for the Timberwolves but as it is only his second season he is still a bit inconsistent. I'd say he could be a shade behind DeMArcus Cousins of the Kings for voting for the All NBA team right now in my opinion and his team has stuttered somewhat. Love watching both of those guys play.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2016, 03:33:54 AM by bergeroo » Logged
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« Reply #123829 on: December 05, 2016, 03:32:31 AM »

delete pls.
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« Reply #123830 on: December 05, 2016, 08:18:12 AM »


A quick update on our long term NFL positions.

Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (£50 @ 2/1)

Two losses out of two since we last spoke

Detroit 8-4
Minnesota 6-6
Green Bay 6-6
Chicago 3-9

With four games left, we are on life support. No one saw this coming.

Arizona Cardinals to win the Super Bowl (£20 @ 12/1)

This could somehow be in even worse shape than the bet above. 5-6-1 puts them second in the NFC West and a game behind in the wildcard race. They're still technically in the hunt but the offense (the sensational David Johnson and ageless wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald aside) has been poor. It hasn't worked in 2016.

San Francisco 49ers to have the NFL's worst record (£50 @ 7/1)

A crucial loss yesterday to the 2-9 (now 3-9) Chicago Bears keeps the 1-11 Niners in the hunt for the number one overall pick in next year's draft.

The 0-12 Cleveland Browns are at home after a bye against divisional rivals the Cincinnati Bengals. Niners play at home against the New York Jets. Both winnable games. Hopefully just the one we want.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points over 350.5 (£22 @ 10/11)

Scores in 10 games:

31
7
32
7
17
34
24
28
36
19
14
28

277 points after 12 games, meaning a touch over 23 on average. We need 74 more points over the next six games.

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) to get the most receiving yards (£50 @ 9/2)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=RECEIVING&conference=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RECEIVING_YARDS&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-n=1

Third and 200 yards behind Julio Jones is not ideal. It will require an injury to win this one, although Jones has been known to miss games.

David Johnson (Arizona Cardinals) to have the most rushing yards (£25 each way (1,2,3, 1/4) at 18/1)

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?conference=null&statisticCategory=RUSHING&statisticPositionCategory=&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=null&season=2016&seasonType=REG&experience=&tabSeq=0&role=

This looks like a place money goer, rather than an outright winner. Elliott is running away with it. We are live for the minor money.


It looks like we will have sweats right up to the end to see whether we make money on the season.
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« Reply #123831 on: December 05, 2016, 10:39:00 AM »

X factor
Think it's time to get on Sara alto to win
Her performance last night has over a million views on the X factor official YouTube video
Favourite Matt terry has like 200k
I thought maybe a one off
Same last week 1.6 million to 300k of the next closest
Same week before and so on
Crazy the difference in view counts
Anyone know why
Reckon she gets top 3 over Emily too

Emily gone
Three left now
Alto favourite
Second favourite who was favourite all series until alto became favourite, was in the sing off last night
Saturday performances on YouTube - Matt 150k views Sara 1 million
Back in at evens?
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« Reply #123832 on: December 05, 2016, 10:39:04 AM »

Players with 1,000 rushing yards and 700 receiving yards through 12 games in a season: David Johnson 2016, Marshall Faulk 1998. End of list.

on pace to get 2300 all purpose yards, but for the purposes of our bet about 40% of them are going to be receiving.

he is some player.
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« Reply #123833 on: December 05, 2016, 10:41:14 AM »

Vikings offense has scored 20 points or fewer in 7 straight games and 16 points or fewer 6 times in that span.

lost QB, all pro RB, three starting Offensive tackles to injury and sadly for a very good defense the offense is bottom three in the NFL. Can't win with that lack of production
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« Reply #123834 on: December 05, 2016, 11:20:52 AM »

X factor
Think it's time to get on Sara alto to win
Her performance last night has over a million views on the X factor official YouTube video
Favourite Matt terry has like 200k
I thought maybe a one off
Same last week 1.6 million to 300k of the next closest
Same week before and so on
Crazy the difference in view counts
Anyone know why
Reckon she gets top 3 over Emily too

Emily gone
Three left now
Alto favourite
Second favourite who was favourite all series until alto became favourite, was in the sing off last night
Saturday performances on YouTube - Matt 150k views Sara 1 million
Back in at evens?

I did the opposite, traded half out at 4/5.   She is crushing the digital spy polls each week.  But Fleur East was crushing too, and the pretty boy dullard wins way more frequently than they should.  Don't know if evens is a bet, but 4/5 felt like a lay.
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« Reply #123835 on: December 05, 2016, 12:58:52 PM »

2/1 best price on Westbrook now. Too short to bet imo.

NBA ramblings

I play Draftkings NBA most days so have been following the league and watching lots of games this year.

Russell Westbrook is 7/2 for regular season MVP in the NBA on unibet/888. If you have those bookies then I think this is a bet. The guy has been amazing this year just night after night. For those who don't follow NBA that much Oklahoma were led by Westbrook and Durant. In the close season Durant went over and joined the already star studded Golden State team. Westbrook has led this team alone this year, many predicted that they wouldn't make the playoffs but they are currently 12-8 and winning again tonight, currently ranked as 6th seed. His production has been tremendous, regularly raking up triple doubles (double figures in points, assists, rebounds) and has just done five in a row, the first person to do this since Jordan. Commentators and fans are getting really excited about his production and it is a great narrative of him leading the team on his own after the departure of Durant.

Of his rivals for the award. Durant and Curry are now on the same team so cancel each other out a bit. Durant has had a strong season and Curry has been quieter (at least by his standards), the strategy with LeBron clearly seems to not excert him too much so he is 100% for the play offs. He has had a few poor games of late (by his high standards), a night off. But you know, he is LeBron and is the best player in the league, he is just a bit older and focused on titles rather than personal performance.  I would expect him to play lower minutes towards the end of the regular season when the Cavs playoff berth is secured. I would say Curry and LeBron are way way too short here, Durant is a bit of a fairer price.

Leonard is a tremendous player and started the season with some eyecatching performances - I believe Fred had a bet on him for MVP? His issue is that he plays for a defensive minded team, so his number are always likely to be a little bit down compared to Westbrook and Harden. He still definitely has a shot as it is a long season, especially if he can lead the Spurs to the number one seeding.

The other man having an amazing season is James Harden. Similar position to Westbrook in that it is somewhat of a one man team. Houston safely in the playoff spots right now. He is 15/2 with Victor and that could offer some value. Also putting up fantastic numbers in a fast paced, attack minded team.

Of the others, I don't think Griffin and Paul of the Clippers can win this. Anthony Davis is a live outsider, but he has already suffered several injuries and his team is struggling so far compared to Houston and Oklahoma City. DeRozan of Toronto has shot such a high % from the field so far that I don't think that can last for the whole season and Lillard of Portland blows somewhat hot and cold and is not a dominant player like some of the others I have already mentioned

I actually see it as between Westbrook and Harden with Westbrook as a strong favourite, but I've taken a little saver on Harden. If you haven't got a bet on this market yet and don't mind tying your money up til the spring then I really like Westbrook at 7/2.

Thoughts anyone?

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/regular-season-mvp

EDIT - if you bet it then maybe you want to throw it in a double with Embiid for Rookie of the year at a short price. I'd say he has this locked up unless he gets injured. He has been only playing alternate games for 24 minutes (now raised to a 28 maximum) and is really exciting when he gets on the court, a big man who can dominate inside but also shoot the three. None of the other rookies have really stood out or put together a string of performances. The only other interest I'd have would be Murray at 25s with Victor.

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/nba-championship/rookie-of-the-year

======
Updates for other NBA bets.

James Harden is currently 4th in points per game with 28.3, behind Cousins 28.7, Westbrook 31.2 and Davis 31.5. Not feeling too optimistic about this one, I think one of Westbrook or Davis are going to take it.

Karl Anthony Towns has had some headline performances at centre for the Timberwolves but as it is only his second season he is still a bit inconsistent. I'd say he could be a shade behind DeMArcus Cousins of the Kings for voting for the All NBA team right now in my opinion and his team has stuttered somewhat. Love watching both of those guys play.

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« Reply #123836 on: December 05, 2016, 06:55:22 PM »

Reckon Man City are a good price vs the unable to adapt, one season wonder ranieris team?
Man U are shorter odds away to palace...
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« Reply #123837 on: December 05, 2016, 07:37:20 PM »

Reckon Man City are a good price vs the unable to adapt, one season wonder ranieris team?
Man U are shorter odds away to palace...

Missing Aguero, Fernandinho & Otamendi don't forget...
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« Reply #123838 on: December 05, 2016, 10:13:40 PM »

Not sure if the thread took any of my Mercedes suggestions, but based on murmurings I'm hearing, it's worth getting money on Valtteri Bottas right now.

Suggest £100 EW to win the title (20/1 available at numerous bookies, but make sure it's 1-3) and also £100 on him to be the next Mercedes driver at 3/1.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one
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« Reply #123839 on: December 06, 2016, 12:56:25 AM »

The X-Factor bet is quite a funny one, I've read & heard that somehow they are able to vote from Finland. Even though it has been denied, it seems completely clear considering what's happened. But heard lots of stuff about the app being changed and potential delays next weekend to ensure rules won't be broken. So if there has been voting irregularities then Matt could be hugely priced at 12/5

But what a poor series it has been, appalling
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