Tips for Tikay

[vegaslover]

Don't want to give the game away, but a very respected Freddie made mention today of Brighton being 13/10 to win the Sky Bet Championship.

They are on a stunning run of form, for over 2 seasons now, & currently sit 2 points clear at the top, with a game in hand over 2nd placed Newcastle, & well clear of 3rd. 

I fear we missed the boat here - surely much bigger was available pre-Season, when it seemed to be readily assumed that Newcastle would romp home hard held.

Not sure about stunning form for last two seasons, they fell away end of last season and were appalling in the play-offs, previous seasons also fell away end of season.
This season make or break for them, have to go up or sell their players due to FFP
Price missed from start of season

[The Camel]

Don't want to give the game away, but a very respected Freddie made mention today of Brighton being 13/10 to win the Sky Bet Championship.

They are on a stunning run of form, for over 2 seasons now, & currently sit 2 points clear at the top, with a game in hand over 2nd placed Newcastle, & well clear of 3rd. 

I fear we missed the boat here - surely much bigger was available pre-Season, when it seemed to be readily assumed that Newcastle would romp home hard held.

Not sure about stunning form for last two seasons, they fell away end of last season and were appalling in the play-offs, previous seasons also fell away end of season.
This season make or break for them, have to go up or sell their players due to FFP
Price missed from start of season

Fell away at the end of the season?

http://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/brighton-and-hove-albion/2015-16/fixtures-and-results.html

Their last 14 games, they won 9 and drew 5. I'd like QPR to fall away at the end of this season please.

They were incredibly unlucky in the play off semi v Wednesday too.

[Cavey007]

Even with 9mins stoppage time Wycombe still couldn't find a winner, useless. This is why bookies don't restrict me

Know that feeling. Would love to have a restricted account somewhere!

[rinswun]

Don't want to give the game away, but a very respected Freddie made mention today of Brighton being 13/10 to win the Sky Bet Championship.

They are on a stunning run of form, for over 2 seasons now, & currently sit 2 points clear at the top, with a game in hand over 2nd placed Newcastle, & well clear of 3rd. 

I fear we missed the boat here - surely much bigger was available pre-Season, when it seemed to be readily assumed that Newcastle would romp home hard held.

Not sure about stunning form for last two seasons, they fell away end of last season and were appalling in the play-offs, previous seasons also fell away end of season.
This season make or break for them, have to go up or sell their players due to FFP
Price missed from start of season

Absolutely comedy assessment.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Would love to see a favourite of mine mo Sanu do well tonight.Have backed him anytime td as could cause Seattle some problems running slant and seam routes from the slot.

[pleno1]

spurs 12/1 to win the league..

What we thinking?

[Tal]

spurs 12/1 to win the league..

What we thinking?

We play Man City next week.

Rest of top 6 play Stoke, Swansea, Burnley and Hull. Can't see many points dropped there. Save your money and bet us next weekend.

[KarmaDope]

Would love to see a favourite of mine mo Sanu do well tonight.Have backed him anytime td as could cause Seattle some problems running slant and seam routes from the slot.

Bink.

[Stopsleyhatter]

Chucked the Sanu winnings on 0-45 points 8/11 in the Texans patriots game.

[nuros]

  wp Tighty!

[Rod Paradise]

Dion Lewis is a Patriots Running back

The Patriots, as we know, are -15 at home to the Texans this weekend

Lewis is an all purpose shifty back, runs it, catches it out of the backfield, quick and a match up nightmare

He was injured for the first half of the season having had knee surgery in August. Indeed with a small frame he tends to be injury prone full stop. He returned to the line up in week 11 and was eased in. He has been scoreless since but has 9 Red zone touches (from the 20 yard line to the end zone) in the last 2 games, including 4 touches inside the opposing 10 yard line.

He has really been back to full go for three weeks. His 50 touches over the final three weeks of the regular season ranked second among Patriots skill players behind fellow running back LeGarrette Blount, who had 51. Yet in the betting markets he is ranked SEVENTH most likely Patriot to score a touchdown, and is even a longer rpice than a defensive Patriots touchdown

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/houston-texans-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

look at the game logs

http://www.nfl.com/player/dionlewis/2495469/gamelogs

18,16,11 carries weeks 15-17 but the Pats did nothing with his major strength, receiving. 2,1,2 receptions across the three games

There is a theory that the Pats have been playing "rope-a-dope" with his receiving, about to cut him loose in the play offs now he's fit

why might this be?

a) the Texans number 1 ranked defense is tough get through in the middle and the game sets up for screens, short passes etc which is where Lewis comes in
b) LeGarrette Blount (who has scored 9 TDs in the 7 games that the Patriots have been -14 or larger this year) has missed practice on wednesday and thursday and might not get a full shift this weekend

This is really a value hunch. Blount is the obvious First TD candidate* but at 7/2 first and 8/13 anytime everyone knows this

Lewis' potential here has been ignored. you can get 22/1 First TD and 17/4 Bet365 only anytime TD

* Patriots at home. The argument that away sides will defer and give the other aside the ball first is long established. the away side then gets the ball start of second half when they can put in place half time adjustments and a proportion of  the crowd aren't back in their seats yet, so the noise is lower and an offense easier to run.

However the Patriots/Belicheck are one of the pioneers of deferring, even at home, so it may offset. Whereas normally a home team can be expected to get the ball first its a genuine coin flip here

In our favour, if the disappointing Osweiler and the anaemic Texans offense get the ball first and march down the field and score an offensive TD, then its a very diffierent type of game than the betting markets currently expect

Recommendation

Bet365 only (so we would need help to get on)

Dion Lewis, Texans at Patriots

£10 FTS 22/1
£20 Anytime 17/4

 

Thanks Tighty!!

[Marky147]

Nice one, Tighty!

Spend half my life in here, so did well to miss that

[bobby1]

Dion Lewis is a Patriots Running back

The Patriots, as we know, are -15 at home to the Texans this weekend

Lewis is an all purpose shifty back, runs it, catches it out of the backfield, quick and a match up nightmare

He was injured for the first half of the season having had knee surgery in August. Indeed with a small frame he tends to be injury prone full stop. He returned to the line up in week 11 and was eased in. He has been scoreless since but has 9 Red zone touches (from the 20 yard line to the end zone) in the last 2 games, including 4 touches inside the opposing 10 yard line.

He has really been back to full go for three weeks. His 50 touches over the final three weeks of the regular season ranked second among Patriots skill players behind fellow running back LeGarrette Blount, who had 51. Yet in the betting markets he is ranked SEVENTH most likely Patriot to score a touchdown, and is even a longer rpice than a defensive Patriots touchdown

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/houston-texans-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

look at the game logs

http://www.nfl.com/player/dionlewis/2495469/gamelogs

18,16,11 carries weeks 15-17 but the Pats did nothing with his major strength, receiving. 2,1,2 receptions across the three games

There is a theory that the Pats have been playing "rope-a-dope" with his receiving, about to cut him loose in the play offs now he's fit

why might this be?

a) the Texans number 1 ranked defense is tough get through in the middle and the game sets up for screens, short passes etc which is where Lewis comes in
b) LeGarrette Blount (who has scored 9 TDs in the 7 games that the Patriots have been -14 or larger this year) has missed practice on wednesday and thursday and might not get a full shift this weekend

This is really a value hunch. Blount is the obvious First TD candidate* but at 7/2 first and 8/13 anytime everyone knows this

Lewis' potential here has been ignored. you can get 22/1 First TD and 17/4 Bet365 only anytime TD

* Patriots at home. The argument that away sides will defer and give the other aside the ball first is long established. the away side then gets the ball start of second half when they can put in place half time adjustments and a proportion of  the crowd aren't back in their seats yet, so the noise is lower and an offense easier to run.

However the Patriots/Belicheck are one of the pioneers of deferring, even at home, so it may offset. Whereas normally a home team can be expected to get the ball first its a genuine coin flip here

In our favour, if the disappointing Osweiler and the anaemic Texans offense get the ball first and march down the field and score an offensive TD, then its a very diffierent type of game than the betting markets currently expect

Recommendation

Bet365 only (so we would need help to get on)

Dion Lewis, Texans at Patriots

£10 FTS 22/1
£20 Anytime 17/4

 

Thanks Tighty!!

Great call that Rich, wp

Another sign of how bad the industry has got in just copying prices between themselves. In the betting without Justin Thomas in the Sony Open golf there are three firms listed on Oddschecker and all three of them Hills, Boyles and VC have missed Kevin Kisner off their list, who is currently tied 3rd 2 shots off the lead in the without Thomas scoring. Wonder how that could happen?

[Tonibell]

Woke up. Checked my phone. Burst out laughing.

Click to see full-size image.

Have they been hiding this lad like a handicapper out the back of an Irish maiden hurdle? Dion not Tighty, I mean.

Vwp.

[Cavey007]

Dion Lewis is a Patriots Running back

The Patriots, as we know, are -15 at home to the Texans this weekend

Lewis is an all purpose shifty back, runs it, catches it out of the backfield, quick and a match up nightmare

He was injured for the first half of the season having had knee surgery in August. Indeed with a small frame he tends to be injury prone full stop. He returned to the line up in week 11 and was eased in. He has been scoreless since but has 9 Red zone touches (from the 20 yard line to the end zone) in the last 2 games, including 4 touches inside the opposing 10 yard line.

He has really been back to full go for three weeks. His 50 touches over the final three weeks of the regular season ranked second among Patriots skill players behind fellow running back LeGarrette Blount, who had 51. Yet in the betting markets he is ranked SEVENTH most likely Patriot to score a touchdown, and is even a longer rpice than a defensive Patriots touchdown

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/houston-texans-at-new-england-patriots/first-touchdown-scorer

look at the game logs

http://www.nfl.com/player/dionlewis/2495469/gamelogs

18,16,11 carries weeks 15-17 but the Pats did nothing with his major strength, receiving. 2,1,2 receptions across the three games

There is a theory that the Pats have been playing "rope-a-dope" with his receiving, about to cut him loose in the play offs now he's fit

why might this be?

a) the Texans number 1 ranked defense is tough get through in the middle and the game sets up for screens, short passes etc which is where Lewis comes in
b) LeGarrette Blount (who has scored 9 TDs in the 7 games that the Patriots have been -14 or larger this year) has missed practice on wednesday and thursday and might not get a full shift this weekend

This is really a value hunch. Blount is the obvious First TD candidate* but at 7/2 first and 8/13 anytime everyone knows this

Lewis' potential here has been ignored. you can get 22/1 First TD and 17/4 Bet365 only anytime TD

* Patriots at home. The argument that away sides will defer and give the other aside the ball first is long established. the away side then gets the ball start of second half when they can put in place half time adjustments and a proportion of  the crowd aren't back in their seats yet, so the noise is lower and an offense easier to run.

However the Patriots/Belicheck are one of the pioneers of deferring, even at home, so it may offset. Whereas normally a home team can be expected to get the ball first its a genuine coin flip here

In our favour, if the disappointing Osweiler and the anaemic Texans offense get the ball first and march down the field and score an offensive TD, then its a very diffierent type of game than the betting markets currently expect

Recommendation

Bet365 only (so we would need help to get on)

Dion Lewis, Texans at Patriots

£10 FTS 22/1
£20 Anytime 17/4

 

Thanks Tighty!!

Well done. Thanks for bringing it to my attention! I added 2 or more to my blog at 55/1! Not a bad night!