Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/pdc-masters/the-masters/winner

Thoughts??
http://www.pdc.tv/the-masters/article/sdwz8drmod6215dmxo31gikrq/title/2017-unibet-masters-draw--schedule

[Cavey007]

What was it that arbboy was saying a few weeks back about big underdogs and o/u? When the Rams went to Seattle?

Underdog and unders? Faves and overs? So... Texans and unders this weekend?

[Cavey007]

Pretty unique NFL spot tonight for anyone that can access books which offer spread/total doubles on games.  Most vegas books offer them at 5/2 or 13/5.  10/11 doubled is slightly bigger than 13/5.  

Huge fav and a relatively tiny total makes fav/over and dog/under doubles way more likely than the odds suggest due to the obvious correlation.    If you can get on they are worth doing for decent money.  

16 point fav and a 38 point total is just lovely for this.

Recommend £100 on each one if fred can get on so we have £200 at 4/5 coupled on the two outcomes.  Not sure which uk books do and don't offer this nowadays before anyone asks.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/los-angeles-rams-at-seattle-seahawks/point-spread

That's what I was after. Guessing the higher total here makes that a moot point?

[TightEnd]

We have 33-1 e/w on Leinster for the ERCC

Last night they thumped Montpellier 57-3 (Montpellier down to 14 men) to qualify for the knock out stages

They key here is to get a home quarter-final so as to (probably) avoid the two tournament favourites Saracens and Clermont away.

the final group games are next week

Leinster now 9/2 3rd favoruties for the title http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner

--

Today Wasps, our other bet, play Toulouse at the Ricoh. Wasps are at the worst team in the competition Zebre
next week which should be a five point bonus win. A Wasps win today would take them through to the knockout stages too

[tikay]

We have 33-1 e/w on Leinster for the ERCC

Last night they thumped Montpellier 57-3 (Montpellier down to 14 men) to qualify for the knock out stages

They key here is to get a home quarter-final so as to (probably) avoid the two tournament favourites Saracens and Clermont away.

the final group games are next week

Leinster now 9/2 3rd favoruties for the title http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/european-champions-cup/winner

--

Today Wasps, our other bet, play Toulouse at the Ricoh. Wasps are at the worst team in the competition Zebre
next week which should be a five point bonus win. A Wasps win today would take them through to the knockout stages too

Blimey, Rich, what a corker that is.

Was that one of yours?

[TightEnd]

Indeed lines 23 and 24 on the spreadsheet

[tikay]

Don't want to give the game away, but a very respected Freddie made mention today of Brighton being 13/10 to win the Sky Bet Championship.

They are on a stunning run of form, for over 2 seasons now, & currently sit 2 points clear at the top, with a game in hand over 2nd placed Newcastle, & well clear of 3rd. 

I fear we missed the boat here - surely much bigger was available pre-Season, when it seemed to be readily assumed that Newcastle would romp home hard held.

[tikay]

Indeed lines 23 and 24 on the spreadsheet

Blimey, well done on both of them.

[TightEnd]

Christmas 2016 will be a festive period to forget for betting operators, as the industry counts the cost of December’s congested English football schedule.

Closing its 2016, betting operators are reported to have been hit by industry-wide losses of over £100 million as heavily backed football favourites won their respective matches, with some bookmakers expected to report losses of circa £10 million.

Devastating to bookmaker balances will have been Premier League match day 18 (26-28 December) in which EPL title contenders Chelsea FC, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United won their matches.

Read more: http://www.sbcnews.co.uk/featurednews/2017/01/10/football-hits-betting-industry-for-100-million-losses-this-christmas/#ixzz4VjQNMtWq

[arbboy]

looks mid/wide romford this morning from the early races. 

[DropTheHammer]

Devastating to bookmaker balances will have been Premier League match day 18 (26-28 December) in which EPL title contenders Chelsea FC, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United won their matches.

Can there ever be value in betting the top teams-surely the bookies know that people will still back the top teams what ever their price, and most punters rarely consider the value of the odds offered. There was that recent stat about always backing Arsenal was proven to be unprofitable even at much-inflated odds.

[arbboy]

Devastating to bookmaker balances will have been Premier League match day 18 (26-28 December) in which EPL title contenders Chelsea FC, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United won their matches.

Can there ever be value in betting the top teams-surely the bookies know that people will still back the top teams what ever their price, and most punters rarely consider the value of the odds offered. There was that recent stat about always backing Arsenal was proven to be unprofitable even at much-inflated odds.

Most big name favourites punters put in accas with a lot of firms are offered quite often at 'loss leader' prices so if you back them lumpy in singles and not accas you will get your account closed believe me.

If you look at the EPL league table on page 143 of the RPost today.  They show P+L for backing each team blind this season at the best price available in the RP pricewise tables.  If you had £100 on the 'big 6' teams blind this season at best prices on every game you would be winning £1200.

[arbboy]

Not sure how Stoke are going off a 5/4 shot away at Sunderland?  They were 4/6 last weekend at home to Wolves with a full strength side.  Wolves much better club than Sunderland suddenly?  Never thought i would see the day Stoke were 5/4 away to a team who are not even the worse team in the EPL. 

[hhyftrftdr]

Wycombe vs Yeovil......Anything going on that we don't know about?

Wycombe have won 8 of the last 10 games (other 2 were draws) and sit 5th in the table, 3rd in the 'home' table and 2nd in the 'form' table. Playing Yeovil who haven't won in 5 games and are currently sitting 16th in the table but perhaps more tellingly they are bottom of the 'away' table. Yeovil have only scored 9 goals away from 11 games, where as Wycombe have conceded just 8 at home in 11 games.

Wycombe almost even money across the board....http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/wycombe-v-yeovil/winner

[arbboy]

Devastating to bookmaker balances will have been Premier League match day 18 (26-28 December) in which EPL title contenders Chelsea FC, Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United won their matches.

Can there ever be value in betting the top teams-surely the bookies know that people will still back the top teams what ever their price, and most punters rarely consider the value of the odds offered. There was that recent stat about always backing Arsenal was proven to be unprofitable even at much-inflated odds.

Most big name favourites punters put in accas with a lot of firms are offered quite often at 'loss leader' prices so if you back them lumpy in singles and not accas you will get your account closed believe me.

If you look at the EPL league table on page 143 of the RPost today.  They show P+L for backing each team blind this season at the best price available in the RP pricewise tables.  If you had £100 on the 'big 6' teams blind this season at best prices on every game you would be winning £1200.Football is bet to virtually zero % margin now as a lost leader by a lot of firms as they are scared to death to lose customers to each other.  Providing you can get on with these loss leader prices you can make money quite easily on the EPL.  Getting on for decent money is the problem.