Tips for Tikay

[verndog158]

Lesson number one Fred taught me was the handicap fair fractions

6 Runners 1/4 odds for 2 places = 25%. Fair fraction = 40%!


Lesson number two looks to be buy greyhounds for sport, how much are your kennel fees if your bet covers a couple months worth?

Congrats on the win, make sure you're there for the A1 races 


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I owe Fred £25 to my knowledge that I haven't settled - where's it going?

think total we pay £80/100 a month for kenels i think maybe?

Yeah no appreciated Arrboy, and taken on board, good to touch up on the dogs side of betting, espeically if i might be at the track a little more often, when i have been i usually gp for the forecast/ reverse tricast etcs. better value in those

[arbboy]

Lesson number one Fred taught me was the handicap fair fractions

6 Runners 1/4 odds for 2 places = 25%. Fair fraction = 40%!


Lesson number two looks to be buy greyhounds for sport, how much are your kennel fees if your bet covers a couple months worth?

Congrats on the win, make sure you're there for the A1 races  


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I owe Fred £25 to my knowledge that I haven't settled - where's it going?

think total we pay £80/100 a month for kenels i think maybe?

Yeah no appreciated Arrboy, and taken on board, good to touch up on the dogs side of betting, espeically if i might be at the track a little more often, when i have been i usually gp for the forecast/ reverse tricast etcs. better value in those

No there isn't.  They are the worst possible bets to place as a punter.  Bigger returns if you win doesn't equal better value/EV long term.  F/c t/c combos are just shelling peas for the layers.  Show me anyone that beats the margin on those products long term for a living and i will give the game up (even with a huge bias they are tough to beat)

[Chompy]

The top two in the Top Scotch Publeague scorer market are the wrong way round and too close together imo.

Don't see any way Dembele doesn't win this barring injury.

13-8 with Stoke rofflers.

totally agree the guy is 3 classes above anyone else in the league

Whoa - he's not 3 classes above a few of his teammates. Potentially a class above, but still learning.

I'm not sure the bookies are that wrong - ok Dembele's on a scoring tear at the moment but even then Scott Sinclair is 2 league goals ahead.

Dembele will be rested, subbed regularly, he's up and down to London seeing a specialist for his knee. Sinclair will play every game, every minute barring injury & while he's been more of a provider lately, he was showing signs of exasperation at not getting a goal yesterday. Also if Griffiths buckles down like he's been challenged to, he will get on, and when he does he and Dembele will be replacing each other.

If I had to say who I thought would be top scorer - I'd probably say Dembele, but I think it'll be close, and with Sinclair having a start I don't feel the bookies are that far out.

I backed Dembele each-way pre-season so have followed things closely. I've also backed Griffiths and Sinclair EW (wrong side of one, right side of the other) because of the crazy length of time they kept the EW market open. It's still open now, which is ridiculous.

You're right that Sinclair will play more minutes than either MD or LG for the rest of the season but it's unusual for a striker not to win these markets, especially when they're part of a team that's going to score so many more. Spring comes round and Dembele winning the golden boot won't hurt his market value.

If Griffiths is close to being back then he's a decent EW bet at 9-1, fifth three spots.

Otherwise arb, would you rather take 2-5 Sevilla on Wednesday with the knowledge that Ranieri is still there, or 4-9 now knowing that he could go?

[arbboy]

The top two in the Top Scotch Publeague scorer market are the wrong way round and too close together imo.

Don't see any way Dembele doesn't win this barring injury.

13-8 with Stoke rofflers.

totally agree the guy is 3 classes above anyone else in the league

Whoa - he's not 3 classes above a few of his teammates. Potentially a class above, but still learning.

I'm not sure the bookies are that wrong - ok Dembele's on a scoring tear at the moment but even then Scott Sinclair is 2 league goals ahead.

Dembele will be rested, subbed regularly, he's up and down to London seeing a specialist for his knee. Sinclair will play every game, every minute barring injury & while he's been more of a provider lately, he was showing signs of exasperation at not getting a goal yesterday. Also if Griffiths buckles down like he's been challenged to, he will get on, and when he does he and Dembele will be replacing each other.

If I had to say who I thought would be top scorer - I'd probably say Dembele, but I think it'll be close, and with Sinclair having a start I don't feel the bookies are that far out.

I backed Dembele each-way pre-season so have followed things closely. I've also backed Griffiths and Sinclair EW (wrong side of one, right side of the other) because of the crazy length of time they kept the EW market open. It's still open now, which is ridiculous.

You're right that Sinclair will play more minutes than either MD or LG for the rest of the season but it's unusual for a striker not to win these markets, especially when they're part of a team that's going to score so many more. Spring comes round and Dembele winning the golden boot won't hurt his market value.

If Griffiths is close to being back then he's a decent EW bet at 9-1, fifth three spots.

Otherwise arb, would you rather take 2-5 Sevilla on Wednesday with the knowledge that Raneiri is still there, or 4-9 now knowing that he could go?

I think they tank the CL tbh and treat it like the Carling cup.  Why on earth would you take it seriously when you can't possibly win it but it could potentially send you down out of the billion dollar gold mine of the EPL?  They are serious scheduling issues with the CL as well before and after key games they can win as well if you look into the fixture list.

I took the (much bigger) opening show so taking 2/5 or 4/9 doesn't really concern me who is in charge!

[Chompy]

Fair enough.

This situation remains me of when Fergie Jnr was in his last few weeks at Posh second time round. Literally no way they were winning again until he was sacked.

If there's any 2-5 left and Claudio is still there, I'll be joining you.

[tikay]

Arb you know Tikay is never going to want to bet to these levels, no matter how much the thread has made, that money has gone.

I think most thread regulars now understand BRM and bet accordingly to confidence in bets, i know i certainly do!

Hounding Tikay/Tighty to bet huge sums is a) never going to happen b) silly!

Saying something like Sevilla to qualify at 1/2 should really be 1/4 and therefore should be double max status is enough to make someone like me have a chunky bet.

But why not then suggest the thread has something sensible (sensible to tikay) like maybe £100 or £200?

I get that putting £50 on a 10/1 shot (that should be say 6/1) and £1000 on at 1/2 (which maybe should be 1/4) this in your head is the same but for Tikay it is not. £1,000 is still £1,000 and £50 is still 20 lattes.

Good read, Callum, though to be fair, I have said that many times, I have no interest in placing bets of that size, I don't get any enjoyment or fun from betting that big.

I shall ask/instruct Tighty not to place any bet over £100 without my express permission. It's just not my thing.

There is nothing wrong with the bet, & I hope everyone else - who is suitably 'rolled - follows the recommendation & I hope it gets home, as I'm sure it will. That's the important thing, not whether Fred does it or not.  

I am also very lucky & grateful that regulars here help us get on, usually in amounts varying from £10 to £100, & generally a few of these dotted around won't harm their accounts. It'd be extremely inconsiderate to ask anyone to stick £1,000 on via their Ladbrokes account though, as it might well mean their account gets closed or restricted in future, & I'd feel awful if that happened.

Let's keep it fun.

[Rod Paradise]

The top two in the Top Scotch Publeague scorer market are the wrong way round and too close together imo.

Don't see any way Dembele doesn't win this barring injury.

13-8 with Stoke rofflers.

totally agree the guy is 3 classes above anyone else in the league

Whoa - he's not 3 classes above a few of his teammates. Potentially a class above, but still learning.

I'm not sure the bookies are that wrong - ok Dembele's on a scoring tear at the moment but even then Scott Sinclair is 2 league goals ahead.

Dembele will be rested, subbed regularly, he's up and down to London seeing a specialist for his knee. Sinclair will play every game, every minute barring injury & while he's been more of a provider lately, he was showing signs of exasperation at not getting a goal yesterday. Also if Griffiths buckles down like he's been challenged to, he will get on, and when he does he and Dembele will be replacing each other.

If I had to say who I thought would be top scorer - I'd probably say Dembele, but I think it'll be close, and with Sinclair having a start I don't feel the bookies are that far out.

I backed Dembele each-way pre-season so have followed things closely. I've also backed Griffiths and Sinclair EW (wrong side of one, right side of the other) because of the crazy length of time they kept the EW market open. It's still open now, which is ridiculous.

You're right that Sinclair will play more minutes than either MD or LG for the rest of the season but it's unusual for a striker not to win these markets, especially when they're part of a team that's going to score so many more. Spring comes round and Dembele winning the golden boot won't hurt his market value.

If Griffiths is close to being back then he's a decent EW bet at 9-1, fifth three spots.

Otherwise arb, would you rather take 2-5 Sevilla on Wednesday with the knowledge that Ranieri is still there, or 4-9 now knowing that he could go?

I don't see Griffiths getting close, he's just been challenged to be more professional in his personal life (after suffering an injury when coming back from an injury). He'll be out the side for a wee while, but if he does knuckle down he will be rewarded - in the end of season games where I'd expect us to run riot. That won't be enough for him to be top scorer, but it might be enough to put a blocker on Dembele.

You've definitely got the best of it, just not sure Dembele's that big a favourite, although I suppose if he is favourite but prices as 2f it's a decent bet.

[TightEnd]

How much longer do we have to wait for Tighty to ask for us to lock in Leicester at 40/1 to go down!!!!!  He loves a lock in usually more than Lord chomps.  I have been waiting for weeks for him to suggest it whilst also wanting to have the max (£1000) on Seville at 1/2 to qualify.  I know he wouldn't place it just out of his own personal interest but it really is a max bet.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/sevilla-v-leicester/to-qualify

4/9 labrokes can we have £900 to win £400 via a friend of blonde who can get on?  I just want to see if Tighty can have the lot on against his side when it makes total financial sense.  It was hard enough getting £50 at 40/1 on them to go down! I put this up as a big bet at 1/2 when adz returned but nothing was placed.  It is a much much better bet now at 4/9 than it was then at 1/2.  Would happily take 2/5 as well for £1000 to win £400 so we can get on anywhere so we don't have to have the 'we can't get on at lolbrokes excuses'.  This must be close to a 1/4 poke that is being held up by arbers and dreamers. 'lol champions of england'  You would back Stoke to beat Leics over two legs at 2/5 at the minute and know you have an edge.  Derby nearly did it ffs.

closing out Leicester? Its your bet, i didn't know you were expecting an opinion. (i would run it, we're 7/4 still and must in reality be shorter until such time as we change manager and even then there may or may not be a new manager bounce)

£900. It might be the best +EV bet of all time but i still can't ask tikay for £900 for a bet (any bet) I am afraid. This is where trying to run something fun rubs up against something more professional I am afraid.

£200 to win £100 or something similar, fine I can put it on

[Chompy]

The 4-9 has gone.

This is arb's bet but I'm with him 100%. Imo wait until Wednesday morning and then take the 2-5. Maybe £500 to win £200? If not, then defo the max £300.

[Tonibell]

Just wanted to say I enjoy 'Eevee for Arby' and 'Tips for Tikay' and learn (and even profit) from both.

[tikay]

Just wanted to say I enjoy 'Eevee for Arby' and 'Tips for Tikay' and learn (and even profit) from both.

Good to hear. We all enjoy different things. That does not mean either is wrong.

[TightEnd]

The 4-9 has gone.

This is arb's bet but I'm with him 100%. Imo wait until Wednesday morning and then take the 2-5. Maybe £500 to win £200? If not, then defo the max £300.

I'm with him too, fwiw. Just practically it can't be £900. Individuals can go in as deep as they wish but I'll save myself the email exchange with tikay about it :-)

[RickBFA]

I have been profitably backing Morcambe over last 5 weeks or so.

They have ownership issues but it doesn't seem to be affecting results.

On Tuesday night they are at home to Barnet. Long midweek trips for evening games in lower leagues have been discussed on here before.

Cant see a bitter cold evening by the sea in the north of England after a long journey being an appealing prospect for Barnet players.

For some reason, Barnet are 6/4 favourites. Looks all wrong to me.

Best price is on Morcambe is 21/10 with beteveryday.

Recommend £30 - I can place if it gets support/other views.

[Tal]

Any views on Dave Gilbert beating Ryan Day today in the first round of the Welsh Open?

Day lost in the final of the World Grand Prix in Preston last night to Barry Hawkins. He was 9-3 down and getting marmalised, before mounting a comeback (partly by going hell for leather and partly by the erstwhile sensational Hawkins seeing the finish line a little prematurely). Day got it back to 9-7, missed a routine red and lost.

That was a little after 9pm last night. Add some time for the post match bits and bobs.

He plays at 3pm today in Cardiff.

http://www.theaa.com/route-planner/index.jsp#fromNode=0%7CThe%20Guild%20Hall,%20Lancaster%20Rd,%20Preston%20PR1%201HT,%20UK%7C%7C-2.696730%7C53.759588%7CtoNode=0%7CMary%20Ann%20St,%20Cardiff%20CF10%202WT,%20UK%7C%7C-3.172549%7C51.478864

207 miles. 3 hours 45 mins.

Factor also that Gilbert is only 3 ranking places behind Day (excluding last night's win) and beat him in a best of 5 last month (and yes only a best of 5)

It must be a bit of a comedown for Day to be back playing so soon after an emotional night at the end of an intense week.

Prices (excluding the roffleriest bookies)

Day 8/11
Gilbert 11/10

I would expect this much closer to a flip.

Views?

If we like it, how about £30 on Gilbo with Chorals?

Obviously if anyone can get 5/4 with BMU, all the better and make it £32.

[T_Mar]

QM Chase looks a good spot for an EW Antepost bet

Douvan is 1/3 Fav, Altior and Un De Seux look almost certain to run in Arkle and Ryan Air respectively.  Several of the others are also likely to run elsewhere and we likely going to be left with small field.

There are several old favourites that might run but they are either coming back from long absences, getting old or just in decline.

The only 2 solid ones look to be Fox Norton 10/1 and Gods Own 20/1.

I think the books have these the wrong way round - Fox Norton owes his position in market due to two visually impressive wins in hcap company and then a G2 race both at Cheltenham - Im not sure that form entitles him to be half the price of Gods Own here and suspect the Tizzard factor is being over valued.

He ran at the weekend finishing 2nd to Altior in 3 runner race - I know the race was all about Altior but it didn't look a good festival trial for Fox Norton and he eased in the betting slightly for this since.

Tizzard was also quoted as saying he might be more of a stayer so not impossible he will go else where as well

Gods Own on the other hand looks really solid... Ran 4th in this race last year but has won 2 G1's since at Aintree and Punchestown.. he's a proper good ground spring horse and is being saved for similar tilt at the festivals this year

He ran a decent race in the tingle creek in Dec not getting beat far on unfavourable soft ground and his trainer stated After race how pleased he was and it was his best start to a season, thought he was still improving - He said he would likely go straight to festival without a prep to avoid soft ground.

I can see this being <10/1 on the day and people talking about it being a great EW bet with a dead 8 runners and odds on jolly - 20/1 now is a fantastic price.  

We might get lucky and have less than 8 runners on the day or hit jackpot and Douvan doesn't turn up.

He is entered in the Ryan Air as well  but I don't think that's the plan but we have NRNB with 364 who are also 20-1 1/4 odds as security

This is a strong bet for me and I've got stuck in

Recommend anything up to 50EW @ 20/1 1/4 odd NRNB for Fred

Edit - If you like the bet I can help with 364