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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13331911 times)
nellberg
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« Reply #128625 on: June 30, 2017, 01:49:21 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #128626 on: June 30, 2017, 01:57:08 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

I took Aru and Bardet a while back based on my limited viewing of cycling stuff, just thought they seemed like two with the right balance and capable if getting the luck needed. Bet on Aru was smaller due to fulgsangs price overall, but more confident if you believe he is domestique. Any risk we get a role reversal if things go fulgsangs way, their team always struck we as having a few too many riders who fancy themselves over the team.
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arbboy
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« Reply #128627 on: June 30, 2017, 02:01:23 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/derby-plate/winner

Non runner in the above race i put the jolly up at 8/13 in earlier in the week.  Gives the jolly an even better draw now as the NR was supposed to be in trap 2 and our selection could get an even clearer run in t1 now.  Anyone who took the 8/13 is fine as it is classed as an ante post bet so the bet isn't reverted to SP like it would be with a NR in a day of the race market.

Another special bet on the Derby which is value given the ante post liabilities of the firms on the Irish front two in the market is the Ireland v UK match special.

Bald are 9/4 UK which is too big.  Should be around the 15/8 - 2/1 mark.  Best price on all the 4 UK dogs coupled with the firms is under 9/4 so this is worth £100 at 9/4 if we can still get on at Bald.  Under greyhound derby then  specials on their website.

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« Reply #128628 on: June 30, 2017, 02:07:38 PM »

500/1 shot Magdalena Rybarikova is scheduled to play favourite Pliskova in the second round, so that is unfortunate.

Both draws seem relatively even.



Assume this is still value though and we shouldn't be looking to lay it off?

If you can afford to lay off a 500/1 shot, maybe you aren't betting big enough?

Ha ha

You caught me

When I said lay off i secretly meant cashout

I'd just let it ride, I only lay off very rarely.

The problem with cashing out/laying off isn't just the extra cost you pay.  If the market is wrong on your bet, then it is likely to remain biassed against your bet until the event happens.  So even if you could trade at zero cost, you are likely making a bad bet if you thought your original one was good.

Having said that, I had Wimbledon radio on this morning and was listening for those in Konta's quarter, and probably picked up as quick as anyone that she was lined up to face Kvitova in her quarter.  I could clearly have made a quick turn laying immediately on betfair.  But meh, we got 66/1, so it just isn't so bad.    
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
TightEnd
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« Reply #128629 on: June 30, 2017, 02:13:36 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/derby-plate/winner

Non runner in the above race i put the jolly up at 8/13 in earlier in the week.  Gives the jolly an even better draw now as the NR was supposed to be in trap 2 and our selection could get an even clearer run in t1 now.  Anyone who took the 8/13 is fine as it is classed as an ante post bet so the bet isn't reverted to SP like it would be with a NR in a day of the race market.

Another special bet on the Derby which is value given the ante post liabilities of the firms on the Irish front two in the market is the Ireland v UK match special.

Bald are 9/4 UK which is too big.  Should be around the 15/8 - 2/1 mark.  Best price on all the 4 UK dogs coupled with the firms is under 9/4 so this is worth £100 at 9/4 if we can still get on at Bald.  Under greyhound derby then  specials on their website.



yes but limited on this one

Greyhound Derby 2017 - Specials 20:30
UK v Ireland
UK   9/4   
Total stake   £ 22.20
Estimated return   £ 72.15
Full stake   £ 22.20
Full estimated return   £ 72.15
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TightEnd
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« Reply #128630 on: June 30, 2017, 02:14:23 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

which of these three markets is your strongest thought?

edit ignore that the latter two markets are stars,betway and boyles only

would have to be the win market
« Last Edit: June 30, 2017, 02:17:14 PM by TightEnd » Logged

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arbboy
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« Reply #128631 on: June 30, 2017, 02:17:14 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/derby-plate/winner

Non runner in the above race i put the jolly up at 8/13 in earlier in the week.  Gives the jolly an even better draw now as the NR was supposed to be in trap 2 and our selection could get an even clearer run in t1 now.  Anyone who took the 8/13 is fine as it is classed as an ante post bet so the bet isn't reverted to SP like it would be with a NR in a day of the race market.

Another special bet on the Derby which is value given the ante post liabilities of the firms on the Irish front two in the market is the Ireland v UK match special.

Bald are 9/4 UK which is too big.  Should be around the 15/8 - 2/1 mark.  Best price on all the 4 UK dogs coupled with the firms is under 9/4 so this is worth £100 at 9/4 if we can still get on at Bald.  Under greyhound derby then  specials on their website.



yes but limited on this one

Greyhound Derby 2017 - Specials 20:30
UK v Ireland
UK   9/4   
Total stake   £ 22.20
Estimated return   £ 72.15
Full stake   £ 22.20
Full estimated return   £ 72.15

Looks like you on 10% limits at bald now then
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TightEnd
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« Reply #128632 on: June 30, 2017, 02:17:45 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post/derby-plate/winner

Non runner in the above race i put the jolly up at 8/13 in earlier in the week.  Gives the jolly an even better draw now as the NR was supposed to be in trap 2 and our selection could get an even clearer run in t1 now.  Anyone who took the 8/13 is fine as it is classed as an ante post bet so the bet isn't reverted to SP like it would be with a NR in a day of the race market.

Another special bet on the Derby which is value given the ante post liabilities of the firms on the Irish front two in the market is the Ireland v UK match special.

Bald are 9/4 UK which is too big.  Should be around the 15/8 - 2/1 mark.  Best price on all the 4 UK dogs coupled with the firms is under 9/4 so this is worth £100 at 9/4 if we can still get on at Bald.  Under greyhound derby then  specials on their website.



yes but limited on this one

Greyhound Derby 2017 - Specials 20:30
UK v Ireland
UK   9/4   
Total stake   £ 22.20
Estimated return   £ 72.15
Full stake   £ 22.20
Full estimated return   £ 72.15

Looks like you on 10% limits at bald now then

not generally,still very good

on specials on minority sports, would expect limits
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nellberg
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« Reply #128633 on: June 30, 2017, 02:35:23 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

which of these three markets is your strongest thought?

edit ignore that the latter two markets are stars,betway and boyles only

would have to be the win market


16/1 ew is fine also, 4/1 for the place part is better than his odds to podium.
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« Reply #128634 on: June 30, 2017, 02:37:00 PM »

6/30/2017 2:18:50 PM   765/
889   W:15.00 S:15.00   Single   Tour De France 2017/Outright   Aru, Fabio      16/1   Open   O   £30.00   £0.00

£15 ew 1/4 1,2,3 Betfred
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nellberg
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« Reply #128635 on: June 30, 2017, 02:37:20 PM »

No Tour de France bets this year? Would hate to be on Porte at the prices (to tours Ive seen), know hes the form rider but hes always struck me as lacking the ability to get through the bad days and seems to fall off a cliff when he does (obviously these occasions have been impart due to his role requirements/not being solo first rider). Froome hasnt looked as good as previous years, any value about?

Aru for me. Every time Froome won TDF he won the Dauphine in the lead-up, didn't this year. Porte's grand tour record is vile. Quintana won the Giro, notiously tough to do the double. Aru will have Fulgsang as a quality domestique, has strong grand tour form and won the Italian national championships on Sunday. By all accounts his vanquished rivals were talking him up in the aftermath. Of the others, Contador might not be what he was, and doesn't have a super-strong team Bardet is interesting, but kind of picked up the pieces last year. I'd have Aru a fair way ahead of him in the pecking order then we're into super-domestiques who'll be riding in support of thier team leaders.

18/1 to win
11/2 w/o froome/porte
7/2 w/o big 3

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/winner?selectionName=fabio-aru

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/w-o-froome-and-porte

https://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/tour-de-france/betting-without-big-3

I took Aru and Bardet a while back based on my limited viewing of cycling stuff, just thought they seemed like two with the right balance and capable if getting the luck needed. Bet on Aru was smaller due to fulgsangs price overall, but more confident if you believe he is domestique. Any risk we get a role reversal if things go fulgsangs way, their team always struck we as having a few too many riders who fancy themselves over the team.

Craic was he'd domestique for fulgsang at the daphine then they'd reverse roles. You never know how it plays out, depends who's strongest etc but they were happy to cut nibali and put thier faith in aru so I'd assume he'd be given a fair crack of the whip.
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« Reply #128636 on: June 30, 2017, 03:23:48 PM »

https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/mens-wimbledon/winner

Anyone would think it was 2009 all over again looking at the outright market for Wimbledon.  Must be some serious injury worry about Muz for him to be 6/1+ given his dream draw.  Couldn't have been any softer.  Kyrgois (if he mentally can get to the second week without pulling out/throwing a strop) then Stan (i hate grass) Wawr or Tsonga then the dirt balling roider in the Semis who surely can't win Wimbledon again?  Muz would have been double figures if Raonic/Fed were in his half surely?
« Last Edit: June 30, 2017, 03:26:30 PM by arbboy » Logged
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« Reply #128637 on: June 30, 2017, 03:27:17 PM »

Murray limped through a practice session this morning, there is film online of it,wincing every time he extended himself

Fed is 36

Djok no form

Nadal not his surface

Warinka has 1 win over a top 20 player on grass, ever. Amazed when i read that

Which is why the likes of Raonic (wrong part of draw though) and Cilic at nice prices are getting attention

just very very open indeed,and the women's is more open still
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« Reply #128638 on: June 30, 2017, 03:32:25 PM »

Murray limped through a practice session this morning, there is film online of it,wincing every time he extended himself

Fed is 36

Djok no form

Nadal not his surface

Warinka has 1 win over a top 20 player on grass, ever. Amazed when i read that

Which is why the likes of Raonic (wrong part of draw though) and Cilic at nice prices are getting attention

just very very open indeed,and the women's is more open still

Djok has a brutal draw in comparison to muz.  Del Pot in round 3, Lozep/Monfils/Edmund in round 4, Berd/Gasq/Thiem in 1/4s , Fed in Semis.
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« Reply #128639 on: June 30, 2017, 03:41:04 PM »

Quite like Querry 33/1 for first quarter with baldy. First two matches vs weak opponents, then likely Tsonga, then maybe Stan. Big serve, seems to like grass, quarterfinalist last year.
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/mens/mens-wimbledon/player-to-win-1st-quarter
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