Tips for Tikay

[AndrewT]

Gl everyone on, gutted I missed them, hope you all get the lot.

+1

[baldock92]

What a sweat! GL everyone!

[Woodsey]

What a sweat! GL everyone!

Yup 

[Doobs]

Let it ride, rethink if she gets to Semi's.

#shewon't #evlost

coco has barely broken sweat hosing up in every game so far.  I have watched every minute of every game fwiw.

You can rethink it now Maldini.

Did you watch every minute of that one Arb?

I didn't watch every minute of it because i was at Uttoxeter tonight at the races.  Watched the match prior to the rain delay and her first serve % was terrible and rightly cost her the match.

As for the 500/1 poke just to clarify i said to lay her at 16/1 when she went off close to 9/4 for the match today.  She should be around a 4/1 9/2 poke now for the event roughly but is still trading around the 17/2 mark so again just because the result was wrong we have still have a cracking trade win lose or draw. 

You do realise this is just as results orientated as saying Konta was a bad lay because she won today?

There was a roughly 33% chance that Kuznetsova would have won her game vs Muguruza.  If that had happened, Rybarikova would be likely favourite in that game and could have been 3/1 to win the tournament overall with the easiest semi ahead of her.  Overall if you weight that potential rsult and add that to the current 17/2, you get a total expected price of around a third of the 18/1 she was last night on the machine in the overall.  Which ties in pretty nicely with the less than 2/1 Rybarikova was to win when I looked last night after you suggested it (you don't get BOG on the exchange).  To completely ignore the Kuznetsova/Muguruza result in your maths is frankly ludicrous.

Same with Konta.  You said lay when she was oscilating between 6.2/6.4 and 6.4/6.6, and she then drifted to 6.6/6.8 after she had already beaten Garcia, so if this happened in a vacuum then laying was obviously great.  But it didn't happen in a vacuum.  Three things happened that would have made her drift regardless of her ability.  Firstly, she had a 3 setter, whilst Vandeweghe won well and Muguruza won impressively.  Of course Konta is going to lengthen of the three of them after those 3 things happened, simply because people naturally put undue weight on things that are fresh in their memory.  In adddition, after you had put up the lay, every single favourite won the outstanding third round matches (if it  wasn't every one it was pretty damn close).  This would again push the Konta price out, if nothing else happened (and we did see that happen to the prices before the fourth round games started).  Finally, as mentioned here the other day, Azarenka would have been a significantly better opponent than Halep.  Again this would naturally push Konta's price out.   To pretend these 3 things hadn't effected the price is nearly as ludicrous as ignoring the fact that Vandewehe.  Also if Konta had dispatched Garcia without fuss and then faced Azarenka, then she may well have bean shorter than 4/6 (8/13 was another poor bit of maths. 8/13^3 / 1.39 is equivalent to 5.85 and not the 6.4 or 6.6 people would have to take, and these people don't get to lay commission free).     

Also I showed that once you had adjusted for the next opponents, Konta's price was barely any different from Vandeweghe and wasn't much further away from Muguruza.  Given their form over the last few months, Vandeweghe would look more of a lay to me than Konta if their prices were the same.

Finally on this Konta lay bet, I don't think it makes much sense to use match prices on the exchange to show that exchange prices on the overall are wrong.  If there is a discrepancy, between the two, then all you have shown is one price is wrong, without knowing which.  If you are saying match prices are perfect because the exchange is near perfect then why wouldn't overall prices be near perfect too?   If you come back at me and say the overall market isn't near perfect, then there is no reason to believe the match prices will be near perfect either.  There is going to be a huge overlap between the backers on the individual matches and the overall, and this group of punters/layers aren't going to set prices perfectly on one part and like a random number generator on the other.  So assuming exchange match prices are perfect in a calculation to show that the exchange prices on the overall are wrong is a fairly clear logic fail.

Moving on

I have no idea you proposed laying first place Rybarikova to cover an each way bet when it was much cheaper to just lay the Vandeweghe match and any semi final is a mystery.   Particularly so when I had already pointed it out before you posted.  Camel pointed it out afterwards too. 

All in all, the maths really isn't as straighforward as you make out and there is little evidence that you put up cracking trades or great hedges.  Just as the results of the Rybarikova and Konta matches went against you, the results of most/all of the other matches went against us. 

[Chompy]

Yikes!

I've only just seen how much thread has on Konta at fancy prices.

Do we have anything on Ribena?

And to the BBC correspondent I'd like this line please.

"Those on Konta at 33-1, 50-1, 66-1 have themselves the best bet since the shrewdies helped themselves to the 33-1 about Valverde taking over at Barca."

Tytyty.

[tikay]

Yikes!

I've only just seen how much thread has on Konta at fancy prices.

Do we have anything on Ribena?

And to the BBC correspondent I'd like this line please.

"Those on Konta at 33-1, 50-1, 66-1 have themselves the best bet since the shrewdies helped themselves to the 33-1 about Valverde taking over at Barca."

Tytyty.

Fred has a whole £2.44 EW @ 500/1, (Restricted, obv) from early June, & £15 EW @ 66/1 Konta, placed back in January.

From memory, a good number of blondes & Freddies are on Ryb, as Camel asked the question a few pages back.  

Dino £44.18 EW @ 500/1,

Ripple £35 EW @ 500/1,

Maldini small @ 500/1,

4KSuited @ 275/1,

Nelly small @ 275/1

Doobs is on, no idea how much or what price.

No idea how many others are on, or at what price, but it seems plenty got on.

Ryb was tipped by bergeroo, Konta by Doobs.

Fun times, eh?
 

[Chompy]

Extraordinary times. Enjoy it while it's there. Sports betting is getting tougher and tougher.

[Omm]

Gl guys, pretty sure it was CWS with the cycling tip that landed a few years ago. Personally missed these but delighted for all you guys. (Of course very jealous)

[tikay]

Gl guys, pretty sure it was CWS with the cycling tip that landed a few years ago. Personally missed these but delighted for all you guys. (Of course very jealous)

Yes, you are correct, my apologies.

[RickBFA]

Gl everyone on, gutted I missed them, hope you all get the lot.

+1

This.

[BigAdz]

Yikes!

I've only just seen how much thread has on Konta at fancy prices.

Do we have anything on Ribena?

And to the BBC correspondent I'd like this line please.

"Those on Konta at 33-1, 50-1, 66-1 have themselves the best bet since the shrewdies helped themselves to the 33-1 about Valverde taking over at Barca."

Tytyty.

Fred has a whole £2.44 EW @ 500/1, (Restricted, obv) from early June, & £15 EW @ 66/1 Konta, placed back in January.

From memory, a good number of blondes & Freddies are on Ryb, as Camel asked the question a few pages back.  

Dino £44.18 EW @ 500/1,

Ripple £35 EW @ 500/1,

Maldini small @ 500/1,

4KSuited @ 275/1,

Nelly small @ 275/1

Doobs is on, no idea how much or what price.

No idea how many others are on, or at what price, but it seems plenty got on.

Ryb was tipped by bergeroo, Konta by Doobs.

Fun times, eh?
 

I was offered 61p ew circ.

Guru wisdom from here suggests you should not ruin an account for such a small bet. In a moment of Markyness, I went to look elsewhere and got distracted and never placed a bet anywhere.

I will be interested to hear from those that did get the bet on if indeed their accounts do get closed or further restricted?!

Regardless, it's a great sweat and I hope she meets Konta in the final, because that one I am on. GL all

[TightEnd]

17 straight first-time semifinalists at women's slams continues with Rybarikova

[Doobs]

I am not going to declare what I have on Rybarikova, but it might be small enough to keep the account.  It is nowhere near the big bets on thread.

The bets on Konta are on an account that is effectively lost anyway.  I have just over £50 e/w on Konta at 66/1 and just over £100 e/w on her at 33/1 on the US Open.  I laid some to thread at the same prices.

If people want to hedge, I'd just hedge on the right semi final.  It is going to be -EV, but from experience, it is going to feel better making £500 rather than lose completely when you are close on a five figure score.  The betfair market before the games tomorrow is going to be stronger than it is now or is going to be later.  Tennis match prices at slams are still fairly strong on betfair.  There is likely to be thousands either side, so getting a few hundred on won't be an issue.  Shovelling thousands on right now is going go be pretty detrimemtal to the price you get.

I don't think fred needs to hedge.  We have bets on two players to reach the final, so there is a bit of a hedge anyway.   We also still have an outstanding bet on Konta in the US Open, so we still have something left if we get 2 bad results tomorrow.  If we do hedge, no need to shovel on much. 

Do we still have the Jon Rahm bet to come on the Open too?  He is on fire right now, he just won the Irish Open easily and is now best 16/1 for The Open.  No need to lock up the thread right now.

[TightEnd]

Rahm USPGA   Rahm   100/1   10   £5 e/w 1/4 1,2,3,4,5

US Open Konta 33/1   50   £25 e/w 1/2 1,2

all bets are on https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eCEvN9MELsUxB81rHuWrfoX3zwIMPQQ205Lcjm3kbgU/edit#gid=34

[SuuPRlim]

insane sweats in the tennis gl everyone