Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

We're on Amelia Lily @ 9.6 for CBB, which ends tonight. Thank god. Not watched a minute of it since I put her up. Pathetic show now.

She's gone from 9.6 to no-hopersville, back to around 9 over the past 48 hours.

Sarah the loon has been crushing the votes and getting boos in equal measure. She'll probably win and get booed. That's happened twice in regaulr BB but never in CBB. Incred scenes.

The main man at Channel 5 has said he wants rid of the show. Who'd have guessed?

[Doobs]

We're on Amelia Lily @ 9.6 for CBB, which ends tonight. Thank god. Not watched a minute of it since I put her up. Pathetic show now.

She's gone from 9.6 to no-hopersville, back to around 9 over the past 48 hours.

Sarah the loon has been crushing the votes and getting boos in equal measure. She'll probably win and get booed. That's happened twice in regaulr BB but never in CBB. Incred scenes.

The main man at Channel 5 has said he wants rid of the show. Who'd have guessed?

These two are heads up.

[bergeroo]

Quick thoughts on the draw.

Men - with Nadal and Fed in the same half we should be looking for an each way bet in the other. I can't touch Murray at this price. We have no idea of his fitness, he hasn't played since Wimbledon where he could barely walk on court. If he plays two rounds and looks good then I can hop on, until then I swerve him despite the great draw. I feel like Zverev is already plenty short enough. His price came in considerably after his recent tournament success. I really don't see any value there at 7/1, particularly with the fact he has no pedigree in five set tennis. He certainly could win and I have a bet on him at a much bigger price but he is way too skinny now.

So who then? The one I had my eye on is Dimitrov, but he is in the top half. Kygrios is in Federer's section, as is Querrey, with a fading but still dangerous Del Potro also in that quarter.

Ruling these out we look to the bottom half.

Cilic has not played since his Wimbledon final defeat and I can't trust him on fitness at all. It makes his section intriguing and I have a slight interest in Isner at 100/1 as a back to lay prospect. Elsewhere here we have Anderson, Muller and the boy Zverev. I think I'd like to go against Zverev and Cilic in the quarter market so will wait for that to go up.

I also want to go against Murray in the quarter betting. Tsonga has been backed in a bit based on the draw but he hasn't been able to follow up good early season form which landed him a couple of titles and I'm not sure I can go for him. His section contains Medvedev, Johnson and Edmund as unseeded floaters, so that's no walk in the park. The rest of this quarter is very poor with claycourt seeds like Ramos and Carreno Busta but I struggle to find someone to back. Qualifier Shapovalov could be worth a look if he ends up in this section and is priced fairly.

I think I will be making some quarter betting and refraining from any more outrights for now. If you had to force me to make a bet I'd take Isner at 100s or Tsonga on the machine.

Good luck everyone!

[bergeroo]

In the ladies the spread of the seeds was quite even but Muguruza and Pliskova have to be happy with their draws. I also think Keys should feel pretty ok with it and I'm still quite bullish on her though her price has come in a bit. Barty draws a tough first round but if she gets through that then I might get involved. Bellis whom Fred has a interest has a potential tough second round match. Obviously a killer one for Halep drawing Sharapova. Stephens is another dangerous floater drawn in that bottom section too. Konta should be able to ease into it a little bit, but from the third round there will be no easy matches.

[Doobs]

Forgot to mention the first seed Rybarikova meets is Muguruza in round 3.  Straw clutching a bit, but maybe she could knock her out for Konta.

[bergeroo]

Muguruza is 2/1 for her quarter with the Irish for anyone who has them. Seems like a bet to me!

[Ant040689]

Suggest £40 Swansea and the draw double chance tomorrow or any betfair laying/asian handicap/handicap equivalent @1.85+.

Palace are without Loftus-Cheek tomorrow who has been the shining light in a disjointed Palace start to the season, as well as Zaha out. The expectancy at home tomorrow is going to add a pressure too that I doubt Palace will rise to.

Swansea on the contrary looked well set up if not a bit outclassed in their first two games, but I think they will thrive from how ill at ease Palace are.

At less than evens at home for Palace tomorrow the value is with Swansea.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-swansea/asian-handicap

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/crystal-palace-v-swansea/double-chance

[Newportlad]

Leicester City are 11/1 to win at Man Utd today. 

Seems extremely good odds to me. 

[Peter-27]

I've got three F1 bets to recommend ahead of qualifying today (in just under an hour from now; 1PM UK time).

Pole Position - Kimi Raikkonen @ 5/1 with Hills. He's undoubtedly the best driver on this circuit, and he has the car underneath him too. 5/1 is too high for one lap pace. 9/2 would be fine, but no lower than that. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/pole-position

Race Winner - Sebastian Vettel @ 5/1 with various. There's no way Ferrari should be 5/1 here, I don't see that Mercedes have a huge advantage, if any. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/winner

Points Finish - Jolyon Palmer @ 4/1 with Sporting Bet & Bet Victor. The Renault looks well hooked up this weekend, and while this is a challenging circuit, it's a "traditional" and known racetrack that shouldn't prove to hold too many problems Jolyon. Suggest £20.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/belgian-grand-prix/points-finish

[arbboy]

Are Bournemouth really this bad this season for Man City to be nearly 1/4 AWAY from home to them?  They used to be the stats boys big team and always under priced.  They looked priced like a relegation side today.

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

Might be worth taking the 7/2 to go down if you can get it.  Just had a look and people are asking for under 11/4 on the machine for them to go down. 

[McGlashan]

Billy Hill have lifted my restrictions on the MayMac props. Among the myrant of request a bet trash there are some gems.

7/2 McGregor to be deducted a point is a RP tip and arb. TKO and DQ prices are arbs on account of the clean KO drifting like a barge on the exchange.
I've backed McGregor to land under 45 punches at 4/7. Pacquiao and co land 80/400 or 500 punches on account of Floyd being so good at blocking and countering. For pace, accuracy, and number of rounds, the only way is down. Sly and Bald opened in the region of 25 before avoiding arbers and the PP 50 line got hammered into 1/5 before being taken down.

The Bald man offers:
McGregor not to win a round on any judge scorecard   2/1 (was 6/4 when the coupons were printed)
McGregor To Win Any Round On Two Judges Scorecards 5/4

I've backed not to. Conor shouldn't win a round unless Floyd lets him have one of the first 2.

[Ant040689]

This isn't reactionary. If there are decent odds in De Boer to be first to leave it is worth a little nibble. This is truly abject without hope. I'll report back post match just in case anything changes. He needs to deploy a counter attacking style from the off and I think he might be too stubborn ever to do that. And I doubt the possession based game will ever stick. But I'll love to be wrong.

[Cavey007]

This isn't reactionary. If there are decent odds in De Boer to be first to leave it is worth a little nibble. This is truly abject without hope. I'll report back post match just in case anything changes. He needs to deploy a counter attacking style from the off and I think he might be too stubborn ever to do that. And I doubt the possession based game will ever stick. But I'll love to be wrong.

I think it's between him and Bilic tbf. Admittedly I dont watch my WHU but my brother has watched all three and said they look clueless. He can't last much longer under this ownership

[nellberg]

This isn't reactionary. If there are decent odds in De Boer to be first to leave it is worth a little nibble. This is truly abject without hope. I'll report back post match just in case anything changes. He needs to deploy a counter attacking style from the off and I think he might be too stubborn ever to do that. And I doubt the possession based game will ever stick. But I'll love to be wrong.

I think it's between him and Bilic tbf. Admittedly I dont watch my WHU but my brother has watched all three and said they look clueless. He can't last much longer under this ownership

Does bilic get a bit more time as he's had to start with all away games? That said they must have been bad to lose 3-0 to us

[McGlashan]

Billy Hill have lifted my restrictions on the MayMac props. Among the myrant of request a bet trash there are some gems.

7/2 McGregor to be deducted a point is a RP tip and arb. TKO and prices are arbs on account of the clean KO drifting like a barge on the exchange.
I've backed McGregor to land under 45 punches at 4/7. Pacquiao and co land 80/400 or 500 punches on account of Floyd being so good at blocking and countering. For pace, accuracy, and number of rounds, the only way is down. Sly and Bald opened in the region of 25 before avoiding arbers and the PP 50 line got hammered into 1/5 before being taken down.

The Bald man offers:
McGregor not to win a round on any judge scorecard   2/1 (was 6/4 when the coupons were printed)
McGregor To Win Any Round On Two Judges Scorecards 5/4

I've backed not to. Conor shouldn't win a round unless Floyd lets him have one of the first 2.

Pinny put up some prop lines

McGregor wins a round on any judges scorecard       yes 1.51, no 2.56
Total Punches landed by McGregor-Compubox stats  over 29.5 @1.67, under 2.12
Either fighter deducted a point                              yes 2.85, no 1.43