Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Renault announce that Palmer is out after Japan, Sainz coming in for the last four races ahead of joining for 2018

[Peter-27]

Renault announce that Palmer is out after Japan, Sainz coming in for the last four races ahead of joining for 2018

The Renault board is utterly laughable. But anyway ..

Haven't had time to post any bets this weekend, but this is what I've just done (for those of you that are up!)

Podium Finish - Esteban Ocon. £5. Unlikely, but price of 45/1 with BetStars is out of line.
Podium Finish - Daniel Ricciardo. £25. Due to high track temps, Daniel should be lower than EVS. Various bookies.
Not To Finish The Race - Lewis Hamilton.  Overdue, only one of two drivers to not have a DNF all season. Price makes this worth betting on. 7/1, Ladbrokes & Coral. £10.

[Tal]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

[Peter-27]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

[Peter-27]

Renault announce that Palmer is out after Japan, Sainz coming in for the last four races ahead of joining for 2018

The Renault board is utterly laughable. But anyway ..

Haven't had time to post any bets this weekend, but this is what I've just done (for those of you that are up!)

Podium Finish - Esteban Ocon. £5. Unlikely, but price of 45/1 with BetStars is out of line.
Podium Finish - Daniel Ricciardo. £25. Due to high track temps, Daniel should be lower than EVS. Various bookies.
Not To Finish The Race - Lewis Hamilton.  Overdue, only one of two drivers to not have a DNF all season. Price makes this worth betting on. 7/1, Ladbrokes & Coral. £10.

£10 profit overall. Needed that, have been on a poor run lately, and all season actually 

[Doobs]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

[Tal]

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-cincinnati-bengals/to-score-longest-field-goal

Prices are the wrong way round for me. Bills have a more reliable and bigger legged kicker than the Bengals. Price partly reflects that the Bengals are favourite by 3 points* but getting Evens has a faint whiff of value nevertheless.

Would need someone to accommodate Fred, as it is with Ireland's finest turf accountant. Small bet only (appreciate that's the only option for most anyway): £20 would do.




* I think Bills +3 is generous too. Syndicates have been on Cincy all week, but the weight of bets from the public has kept the handicap static. I'm with the baying mob on this one, as the Bills pass rush will be having extensive discussions with Mr Dalton.

[Peter-27]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

[Doobs]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages


Depending on context or application it can be considered a valid common-sense observation or a misunderstanding of probability. This notion can lead to fallacious thinking when one becomes convinced that a particular outcome must come soon simply because it has not occurred recently

At the start of the season, you can look at all the stats and decide Lewis is going to retire one race in ten (or whatever it is), so the odds on a retirement is 9/1.  If he doesn't retire in the first 9 races, that doesn't mean he is "due one" in the next race.  The odds are still going to be 9/1.  If anything, you could learn that maybe the Mercedes has got even more reliable than you thought, and that 9/1 is now too short.  There are always going to be occasions where retirement is more likely; like if the track is attritional, like Monaco; or the weather is really hot; or maybe the engine is reaching the end of its expected lifespan, but none of those will be because he is "due one".

I would say that the law of averages is right up there with "Momentum" as a bad reason to make a bet.  Will leave the momentum one to Camel, I can't hear that word in a commentary without thinking of The Camel these days.       

[Cavey007]

What's the situation with unibet for you guys?

They have Austin Sefarian-Jenkins best priced (along with 365) to score anytime vs the Browns today. He's had a decent amount of the target share (around 25% of the top of my head) over the last few weeks and the Browns are awful against the TE conceding in 3 of the 4 games so far to that position, and twice they've allowed 2 TD games from the TE. He's a man I've backed since he came back from suspension to no avail so far, if he can't do it today then I'm off him for the season, but I this should be the week for him. I've also had a little nibble on him 2+ at 25/1 on 365, same odds at Unibet (not good for Tikay but could be for others) - If not he's still pretty well priced elsewhere - https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-cleveland-browns/anytime-touchdown-scorer - If you can't get the 11/4 then anything over is still a go IMO. He has the momentum and the law of averages suggests he'll get one soon

£20 at 11/4

[DungBeetle]

Overdue? He had enough of those last season.

Lewis only had two DNF's last season, which was very, very good when compared with everyone else.

apart from Nico... 

7/1 isn't even a great price on either of the Mercedes to retire.  Betting on something because it hasn't happened for a while seems like wonky thinking.   

Indeed. Nico had one. Ricciardo actually finished every race, and Perez classified in every race.

Not sure I entirely agree, law of averages suggests every car will have at least one mechanical failure during the season. I think I would always be happy to take 7/1 at this stage of the season on a car which has yet to suffer retirement. Happy to be convinced otherwise though, as I'm not 100% confident in my logic there.

This is like saying evens on red must be value because there have been 10 blacks in a row in roulette?

[Tal]

https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/buffalo-bills-at-cincinnati-bengals/to-score-longest-field-goal

Prices are the wrong way round for me. Bills have a more reliable and bigger legged kicker than the Bengals. Price partly reflects that the Bengals are favourite by 3 points* but getting Evens has a faint whiff of value nevertheless.

Would need someone to accommodate Fred, as it is with Ireland's finest turf accountant. Small bet only (appreciate that's the only option for most anyway): £20 would do.




* I think Bills +3 is generous too. Syndicates have been on Cincy all week, but the weight of bets from the public has kept the handicap static. I'm with the baying mob on this one, as the Bills pass rush will be having extensive discussions with Mr Dalton.

The field goal bet won, I believe, if anyone had it.

Bills +3 didn't.

[4KSuited]

What's the situation with unibet for you guys?

They have Austin Sefarian-Jenkins best priced (along with 365) to score anytime vs the Browns today. He's had a decent amount of the target share (around 25% of the top of my head) over the last few weeks and the Browns are awful against the TE conceding in 3 of the 4 games so far to that position, and twice they've allowed 2 TD games from the TE. He's a man I've backed since he came back from suspension to no avail so far, if he can't do it today then I'm off him for the season, but I this should be the week for him. I've also had a little nibble on him 2+ at 25/1 on 365, same odds at Unibet (not good for Tikay but could be for others) - If not he's still pretty well priced elsewhere - https://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/new-york-jets-at-cleveland-browns/anytime-touchdown-scorer - If you can't get the 11/4 then anything over is still a go IMO. He has the momentum and the law of averages suggests he'll get one soon

£20 at 11/4

Good call Cavey. Glad your man didn't let us down this time. tyvm.

[Cavey007]

It's about darn time. I've also backed Mixon and Mccaffrey the last two weeks and gave up on them this week... The inevitable happened with them two. But at least ASJ came in!

[Tal]

After all the fun with Marathon, the Ravens/Raiders bet lost. Was toast when the Ravens went bonkers in the first quarter.

On the plus side, the Panthers look good. They play Thursday night against the high flying Eagles.