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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333303 times)
BigAdz
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« Reply #134685 on: December 03, 2018, 08:50:07 PM »

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?


Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.
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« Reply #134686 on: December 03, 2018, 09:06:24 PM »

I'm writing a preview this week to go in the RFO next Tuesday. It's one to be aggressive with I think.
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« Reply #134687 on: December 03, 2018, 09:49:39 PM »

In light of Hughes getting the boot today, and looking at the 'next manager to go' odds, are there now a lot more managers relatively secure in their job?

Obv Maureen is the hot fave and it does seem somewhat inevitable he'll either walk or be pushed at some point. Nuno the 2nd fave and Wolves do have an air of impending struggles about them (perhaps similar to Watford last season who held a decent league position despite flirting with relegation and often being only 2/3 bad results from the dropzone)

Rest of the field all look ok. Can remove the likes of Pep, Klopp, Sarri, Emery, etc from the equation. There are a bunch of managers who should be fine; Howe, Houghton, Silva, Puel, Gracia. Ranieri should be given the season whatever happens at Fulham.

Even amongst teams struggling, Warnock, Hodgson, Wagner, Benitez all don't appear under much threat even if ongoing results are mixed/poor.

Pellegrini is on a huge contract at West Ham, would take a disaster of a season for him to get the bullet.

Dyche is a slight concern; perhaps Burnley will afford him more time than someone else so he's perhaps a little more secure than he should be.

It doesn't seem feasible that the Premier League would go from December to May without sacking anyone, but if/when Maureen departs it might be worth re-visiting the market (currently 66/1 no manager to go)
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« Reply #134688 on: December 03, 2018, 10:00:43 PM »

In light of Hughes getting the boot today, and looking at the 'next manager to go' odds, are there now a lot more managers relatively secure in their job?

Obv Maureen is the hot fave and it does seem somewhat inevitable he'll either walk or be pushed at some point. Nuno the 2nd fave and Wolves do have an air of impending struggles about them (perhaps similar to Watford last season who held a decent league position despite flirting with relegation and often being only 2/3 bad results from the dropzone)

Rest of the field all look ok. Can remove the likes of Pep, Klopp, Sarri, Emery, etc from the equation. There are a bunch of managers who should be fine; Howe, Houghton, Silva, Puel, Gracia. Ranieri should be given the season whatever happens at Fulham.

Even amongst teams struggling, Warnock, Hodgson, Wagner, Benitez all don't appear under much threat even if ongoing results are mixed/poor.

Pellegrini is on a huge contract at West Ham, would take a disaster of a season for him to get the bullet.

Dyche is a slight concern; perhaps Burnley will afford him more time than someone else so he's perhaps a little more secure than he should be.

It doesn't seem feasible that the Premier League would go from December to May without sacking anyone, but if/when Maureen departs it might be worth re-visiting the market (currently 66/1 no manager to go)

I had this discussion with a few decent judges during the hughes v jose match and said it was very hard to see a runner apart from those two.  I totally agree with everything you have posted and think the no gaffer to go could easily be value when jose disappears. 
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« Reply #134689 on: December 03, 2018, 10:18:23 PM »

Is Mourinho even going to go
Still in champions league to be played in February, if he doesn’t go in January I think he lasts the season
May as well take the 66 now
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« Reply #134690 on: December 03, 2018, 10:32:09 PM »

Is Mourinho even going to go
Still in champions league to be played in February, if he doesn’t go in January I think he lasts the season
May as well take the 66 now

Lot of games coming up, if he can weather this storm he might get a stay of execution.

But he's off his rocker, as demonstrated by his goal celebrations and pre/post match interviews. Alienating his players. Top 4 is getting further away with every passing week, and whilst they are in the Champions League until February, they are out the Champions League in February.

I think he's a dead man walking, which is a shame as he's doing an excellent job.
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« Reply #134691 on: December 04, 2018, 12:26:03 AM »

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?


Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.

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« Reply #134692 on: December 04, 2018, 07:35:49 AM »

Spent last week away with a Brighton season ticket holder. From having the dubious pleasure of listening to every official Brighton supporters Forum post, there seems to be quite some agreement for Houghton, who I thought was bombproof, going.

Lack of attacking football, even against the weaker teams etc, no new ideas etc.

If Flushy around, he may be able to add more, but it sure felt like he was a likely candidate to me.
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« Reply #134693 on: December 04, 2018, 07:54:38 AM »

Would Burnley really let Dyche lead them all the way over the cliff without acting?  Their match stats are abysmal this season.  When they play Palace and Wolves the stats look like you’d expect from Man City away.
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« Reply #134694 on: December 04, 2018, 08:46:10 AM »

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?


Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.



Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds
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« Reply #134695 on: December 04, 2018, 08:59:58 AM »

Spent last week away with a Brighton season ticket holder. From having the dubious pleasure of listening to every official Brighton supporters Forum post, there seems to be quite some agreement for Houghton, who I thought was bombproof, going.

Lack of attacking football, even against the weaker teams etc, no new ideas etc.

If Flushy around, he may be able to add more, but it sure felt like he was a likely candidate to me.

I'm a Brighton season ticket holder and it's not going to happen. Brighton are 11th in the league and Tony Bloom isn't stupid. The football hasn't been great but there have been a lot of injuries which have prevented rotation and those players are now beginning to come back which will bring some freshness and allow more adventurous football. There is a small minority of moronic fans who have booed but they're largely accepted as the village idiots.
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« Reply #134696 on: December 04, 2018, 09:03:53 AM »

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?


Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.



Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/7880805/tyson-fury-to-donate-entire-8m-purse-to-the-homeless-after-stunning-deontay-wilder-fight/

This sort of thing helps, too, being reported in the biggest circulating 'papers.
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« Reply #134697 on: December 04, 2018, 09:18:57 AM »

I'm writing a preview this week to go in the RFO next Tuesday. It's one to be aggressive with I think.

We need a pay for Xmas max bet!
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« Reply #134698 on: December 04, 2018, 09:24:34 AM »

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?


Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.



Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds

Fair points on Hamilton. However I suspect my perception is widely held but all but avid F1 fans.

Higher female viewership not a positive for Fury. Hopefully he can get a couple of high profile media appearances over the next week or so. Previously that would have been fraught with danger but he seems very different from the 2015 Fury so I think he would come across well.
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« Reply #134699 on: December 04, 2018, 09:41:05 AM »

IACGMOOH:

Watched the majority of this (not tonights). Harry is a clear (odds on) favorite (rightly so) but the deeper it gets into it the less I like him at these prices... He's starting to get a little irritable on occasions and I feel like he's going to lose some of his sway with the public if this keeps happening.

Emily I love but I'm not sure if she's 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition... Not had the biggest career... At 7/2 I'll pass.

Fleur I like but again perhaps not 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition.... She's all singing all dancing (maybe a bit too full on to connect with people) and has already lost a public vote on the xfactor final in 2014 vs modest but likable competition... Pass at 5/1

John divides opinion too much, seems fake imo. (Has just sprained his ankle - may withdraw)... No bet @ 16/1

I'm surprised to see Nick as long as he is... Nice chap who puts everybody first. A leader. Theres a tenner @ 29/1 on betfair... Wouldn't be a bad bet.

Anne... Loveable and respect her going in there but boring and thats starting to outweigh the positives for me... Potential early casualty to the public vote. Also a very real chance she withdraws herself... Abysmal bet @ 25/1.

Rita I just can't see it. Expect her to be one of the next couple out.

Sair - The episode she was heavily featured in (trial) she nailed it and came across well. Seems to be a tad to quiet / dull to get any real attention from the cameras... Shame because she COULD be really likable. She's also a main character in Coronation Street which averages ~7million views per episode.... couple of quid @ 200s available on betfair wouldn't be a bad shout just in case she grows into it.

Now on to my bet:

James @ 40/1 (small amount @ 50s available on Betfair).

Likable. Seems to be growing in confidence and getting more airtime. Has befriended Harry who gets tons of it.... Is camp leader at the moment so is gonna continue getting more and more.

But the main reason is this:

https://twitter.com/TheVampsJames - 1.77 Million followers
https://twitter.com/Redknapp - 257k followers
https://twitter.com/EmAtack - 133k followers
https://twitter.com/FleurEast - 243k followers
https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman - 500k followers (sprained ankle - may withdraw)
https://twitter.com/MrNickKnowles - 131k followers
https://twitter.com/anne_hegerty - 82k followers
https://twitter.com/SairKhan - 54k followers
https://twitter.com/OfficialRita - 390k followers

Over 3.5x more than the next closest and get approx 5x more interactions on post on average, but we've gotta break down that demographic of followers.... James is in a Boy band (the vamps)... There will be lots of teen girls / young women (you all know what they're like... Think Justin Beiber fans...etc - mad).

This demographic WILL download apps and WILL vote... This generation is literally glued to devices. You get 5x FREE VOTES on the app EVERY TIME. Phone votes (the older crowd) cost money and takes effort.... Football fans (Harry) just can't be arsed.

40/1 seems huge to me.



I like Emily Atack. surely going to get a lot of work on the back of this. genuine, funny etc

anyway

at 40/1 what's not to like? we know the "upsides" aren't in the price if there are any

James McVey Winner @ 40/1
Im A Celebrity
Mon Dec 03 2018 15:27:51
Receipt ID:
O/0457483/0002357/F
Bet Type:
Single Bet
Total Stake
10.00
Estimated Returns
410.00


With Tighty on this.

She has same sort of profile as Moffatt and Toff bird from last year. Seems genuine too.

Too much has been written about Fleur to make me think she is this nice off screen.

After last night's eviction, Emily is out to 10's.....very surprisingly in the bottom two. James into 20's. Harry still odds on.
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