IACGMOOH:Watched the majority of this (not tonights). Harry is a clear (odds on) favorite (rightly so) but the deeper it gets into it the less I like him at these prices... He's starting to get a little irritable on occasions and I feel like he's going to lose some of his sway with the public if this keeps happening.
Emily I love but I'm not sure if she's 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition... Not had the biggest career... At 7/2 I'll pass.
Fleur I like but again perhaps not 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition.... She's all singing all dancing (maybe a bit too full on to connect with people) and has already lost a public vote on the xfactor final in 2014 vs modest but likable competition... Pass at 5/1
John divides opinion too much, seems fake imo. (Has just sprained his ankle - may withdraw)... No bet @ 16/1
I'm surprised to see
Nick as long as he is... Nice chap who puts everybody first. A leader. Theres a tenner @ 29/1 on betfair... Wouldn't be a bad bet.
Anne... Loveable and respect her going in there but boring and thats starting to outweigh the positives for me... Potential early casualty to the public vote. Also a very real chance she withdraws herself... Abysmal bet @ 25/1.
Rita I just can't see it. Expect her to be one of the next couple out.
Sair - The episode she was heavily featured in (trial) she nailed it and came across well. Seems to be a tad to quiet / dull to get any real attention from the cameras... Shame because she COULD be really likable. She's also a main character in Coronation Street which averages ~7million views per episode.... couple of quid @ 200s available on betfair wouldn't be a bad shout just in case she grows into it.
Now on to my bet:
James @ 40/1 (small amount @ 50s available on Betfair).
Likable. Seems to be growing in confidence and getting more airtime. Has befriended Harry who gets tons of it.... Is camp leader at the moment so is gonna continue getting more and more.
But the main reason is this:
https://twitter.com/TheVampsJames - 1.77 Million followershttps://twitter.com/Redknapp - 257k followers
https://twitter.com/EmAtack - 133k followers
https://twitter.com/FleurEast - 243k followers
https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman - 500k followers (sprained ankle - may withdraw)
https://twitter.com/MrNickKnowles - 131k followers
https://twitter.com/anne_hegerty - 82k followers
https://twitter.com/SairKhan - 54k followers
https://twitter.com/OfficialRita - 390k followers
Over 3.5x more than the next closest and get approx 5x more interactions on post on average, but we've gotta break down that demographic of followers.... James is in a Boy band (the vamps)... There will be lots of teen girls / young women (you all know what they're like... Think Justin Beiber fans...etc - mad).
This demographic WILL download apps and WILL vote... This generation is literally glued to devices. You get 5x FREE VOTES on the app EVERY TIME. Phone votes (the older crowd) cost money and takes effort.... Football fans (Harry) just can't be arsed.
40/1 seems huge to me.