Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Backed James at 25s this morning (thanks for the steer missed the 40s but happy with 16s+)
Arry looks to be getting bored/ratty now, Emily is lovely but seems to have run her race already think one of the rags can at least go far, hopefully it is James (tad dull but seems lovely genuine and starting to show a tad more lately)

And go on Fury!

[Chompy]

SPOTY preview tonight on BBC1 with Jess Ennis-Hill, who apparently looks quite fit in a dress.

Easy to forget how many rofflers in this country still only ever watch BBC1. Should be a useful guide.

[TightEnd]

April 2018: Man Utd 4/11 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Dec 2018: Man Utd 11/8 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Some drift in just eight months.

not a recommendation just an idle observation of the odds-setting direction of both clubs

[arbboy]

April 2018: Man Utd 4/11 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Dec 2018: Man Utd 11/8 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Some drift in just eight months.

not a recommendation just an idle observation of the odds-setting direction of both clubs

Looks too short to me on all known form.

[Chompy]

Fury makes the list of five for Sports Moment Of The Year. Must increase his chance of making the shortlist of six you'd think.

[Doobs]

April 2018: Man Utd 4/11 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Dec 2018: Man Utd 11/8 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Some drift in just eight months.

not a recommendation just an idle observation of the odds-setting direction of both clubs

Looks too short to me on all known form.

I see. xG is "all known data" when looking at last season?   Points are "all known form" this season?   I wouln't be rushing to take 11/8 mind.

4/11 from April 2018 looks odd.   Is that right? 

[TightEnd]

April 2018: Man Utd 4/11 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Dec 2018: Man Utd 11/8 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Some drift in just eight months.

not a recommendation just an idle observation of the odds-setting direction of both clubs

Looks too short to me on all known form.

I see. xG is "all known data" when looking at last season?   Points are "all known form" this season?   I wouln't be rushing to take 11/8 mind.

4/11 from April 2018 looks odd.   Is that right? 

it was. the dog days of Wenger, and before Mourinho started kicking bottles over and alienating his players

[BigAdz]

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?

Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.

Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds

If you consider he was 4th when he was all the objectionable things in 2015, then chuck in the positives, I think he must have a cracking chance.

Are we actually sure that more women/middle classes vote on the night more than in the weeks prior??!!

[BigAdz]

April 2018: Man Utd 4/11 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Dec 2018: Man Utd 11/8 to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.

Some drift in just eight months.

not a recommendation just an idle observation of the odds-setting direction of both clubs

Looks too short to me on all known form.

I see. xG is "all known data" when looking at last season?   Points are "all known form" this season?   I wouln't be rushing to take 11/8 mind.

4/11 from April 2018 looks odd.   Is that right? 

Jose used to have the hex on poor old Arsene.

Not sure Man U would have done that to the old enemy on Sunday.

[TightEnd]

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?

Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.

Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds

If you consider he was 4th when he was all the objectionable things in 2015, then chuck in the positives, I think he must have a cracking chance.

Are we actually sure that more women/middle classes vote on the night more than in the weeks prior??!!

no but i think its logical.

BBC1 on a sunday night, week before xmas. Countryfile, Dynasties, strictly results. Families, both sexes, middle class and middle aged

don''t think many casual sport watchers are voting in the weeks prior but might be on the bbc site on impulse when encouraged to do so on the night

i do think Fury's character conversion is helpful, as is his recent underdog achievement and sense of being hard done by. Just wonder if he appeals to the demographic

[BigAdz]

SPOTY

Does anyone have a view on the likely effect the change to on the night voting will have on the outcome? Obviously it means there won’t be any Jonny Rea’s filling a place but does anyone feel the change will have a positive or negative impact on any of the front runners?

Isnt it gonna be the insta feel good factor?

I think the long drawn out gritty Hamilton/ G Thomas/Kane(who most realize his GB was more luck than anything else) type stories wont have the insta magic that a smiley smiley Dina A-S or the Fury comeback have.

Whoever put Fury up a while back has given us a good sweat.

When they have they had the voting in advance you could vote without having to watch the show, now it will be primarily limited to viewers. Who still watches it nowadays? It used to be something I never missed but I haven’t watched it in a few years.

I took a position on Fury on Sunday morning. Despite not getting the W everybody knows he won, there’s an almost Rocky like backstory and then there is him dragging himself up off the deck in the last round.  He came 4th in 2015 when he was fairly toxic and there was a petition to have him removed from the lineup. He now comes across as pretty engaging and likeable and in the main has conducted himself very well since he came back. The mental health stuff is also very topical and he is bound to have inspired many who are struggling with issues.

I am not keen on any of the front three in the market. Thomas would be the main threat, but winning the TDF doesn’t seem all that special nowadays given the recent Brit dominance. With no voting in advance he could be adversely affected as no time for a lengthy campaign to garner the Welsh vote. Kane looks far too short, surely the highs of the summer have long since been forgotten? He’s also not exactly setting the heather alight this season. Hamilton has won it before and hasn’t done anything special this year over and above what he has in previous years.

Hamilton won't win it, not liked enough by large segments of the voters but what he did this year was absolutely above some other titles. Wasn't in the fastest car for long stretches of the season and his high level of performance made Vettel crack rather than vice versa

As to who watches, a higher female viewership on a sunday night than you would think, pretty middle class voters overall

I would have been quite anti-Fury on that basis in a "live vote" as stuff like the drugs ban and homophobia were definitely in the public consciousness but the mental health recovery and campaigning on the issue swings things the other way so not so sure now. Plus his LA draw is very recent so front of minds

If you consider he was 4th when he was all the objectionable things in 2015, then chuck in the positives, I think he must have a cracking chance.

Are we actually sure that more women/middle classes vote on the night more than in the weeks prior??!!

no but i think its logical.

BBC1 on a sunday night, week before xmas. Countryfile, Dynasties, strictly results. Families, both sexes, middle class and middle aged

don''t think many casual sport watchers are voting in the weeks prior but might be on the bbc site on impulse when encouraged to do so on the night

i do think Fury's character conversion is helpful, as is his recent underdog achievement and sense of being hard done by. Just wonder if he appeals to the demographic

If we can get them to show his donation of circa £8mill, we should be having our absolutes on him

[Killerkilsby]

Backed James at 25s this morning (thanks for the steer missed the 40s but happy with 16s+)
Arry looks to be getting bored/ratty now, Emily is lovely but seems to have run her race already think one of the rags can at least go far, hopefully it is James (tad dull but seems lovely genuine and starting to show a tad more lately)

And go on Fury!

Emily is 10/1 for next elimination.

If she was bottom 2 last night, higher than expected no?

[Killerkilsby]

IACGMOOH:

Watched the majority of this (not tonights). Harry is a clear (odds on) favorite (rightly so) but the deeper it gets into it the less I like him at these prices... He's starting to get a little irritable on occasions and I feel like he's going to lose some of his sway with the public if this keeps happening.

Emily I love but I'm not sure if she's 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition... Not had the biggest career... At 7/2 I'll pass.

Fleur I like but again perhaps not 'celebrity' enough to win vs the competition.... She's all singing all dancing (maybe a bit too full on to connect with people) and has already lost a public vote on the xfactor final in 2014 vs modest but likable competition... Pass at 5/1

John divides opinion too much, seems fake imo. (Has just sprained his ankle - may withdraw)... No bet @ 16/1

I'm surprised to see Nick as long as he is... Nice chap who puts everybody first. A leader. Theres a tenner @ 29/1 on betfair... Wouldn't be a bad bet.

Anne... Loveable and respect her going in there but boring and thats starting to outweigh the positives for me... Potential early casualty to the public vote. Also a very real chance she withdraws herself... Abysmal bet @ 25/1.

Rita I just can't see it. Expect her to be one of the next couple out.

Sair - The episode she was heavily featured in (trial) she nailed it and came across well. Seems to be a tad to quiet / dull to get any real attention from the cameras... Shame because she COULD be really likable. She's also a main character in Coronation Street which averages ~7million views per episode.... couple of quid @ 200s available on betfair wouldn't be a bad shout just in case she grows into it.

Now on to my bet:

James @ 40/1 (small amount @ 50s available on Betfair).

Likable. Seems to be growing in confidence and getting more airtime. Has befriended Harry who gets tons of it.... Is camp leader at the moment so is gonna continue getting more and more.

But the main reason is this:

https://twitter.com/TheVampsJames - 1.77 Million followers
https://twitter.com/Redknapp - 257k followers
https://twitter.com/EmAtack - 133k followers
https://twitter.com/FleurEast - 243k followers
https://twitter.com/JohnBarrowman - 500k followers (sprained ankle - may withdraw)
https://twitter.com/MrNickKnowles - 131k followers
https://twitter.com/anne_hegerty - 82k followers
https://twitter.com/SairKhan - 54k followers
https://twitter.com/OfficialRita - 390k followers

Over 3.5x more than the next closest and get approx 5x more interactions on post on average, but we've gotta break down that demographic of followers.... James is in a Boy band (the vamps)... There will be lots of teen girls / young women (you all know what they're like... Think Justin Beiber fans...etc - mad).

This demographic WILL download apps and WILL vote... This generation is literally glued to devices. You get 5x FREE VOTES on the app EVERY TIME. Phone votes (the older crowd) cost money and takes effort.... Football fans (Harry) just can't be arsed.

40/1 seems huge to me.

I like Emily Atack. surely going to get a lot of work on the back of this. genuine, funny etc

anyway

at 40/1 what's not to like? we know the "upsides" aren't in the price if there are any

James McVey Winner @ 40/1
Im A Celebrity
Mon Dec 03 2018 15:27:51
Receipt ID:
O/0457483/0002357/F
Bet Type:
Single Bet
Total Stake
10.00
Estimated Returns
410.00

With Tighty on this.

She has same sort of profile as Moffatt and Toff bird from last year. Seems genuine too.

Too much has been written about Fleur to make me think she is this nice off screen.

After last night's eviction, Emily is out to 10's.....very surprisingly in the bottom two. James into 20's. Harry still odds on.

As per my above, is it definite shes in the bottom 2. They always say “in no particular order”

[hhyftrftdr]

Would Burnley really let Dyche lead them all the way over the cliff without acting?  Their match stats are abysmal this season.  When they play Palace and Wolves the stats look like you’d expect from Man City away.

You'd think not, but I reckon he'll be afforded more time than someone else in his spot due to previous exploits. Some people thought he shoulda pipped Pep for manager of the season last year, lest we forget. Burnley are woeful this year though, and the shadow of Big Sam will always loom.

As and when Maureen goes, if its anywhere close to 66/1 for no more managers, I'll be having a dabble for sure. Should be an interest sweat if nothing else.

PS looking forward to tonight?

[Chompy]

Poshies got a very strong line-up in the tinpot trophy at Exeter tonight. DMac wants to win this thing again.

The home side will feature fringers apparently, for those that like betting on these games.

Not sure how much mileage there is at around evens though. Were 6-4 and drifting this morning. Missed the boat a bit now.