Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

I think Williams will score in the NFL tonight

Care to elaborate?

Damien Williams Evs
Mike Williams 9/4
Tyrell Williams 7/2
Darrel Williams 9/2

[Cavey007]

I think Williams will score in the NFL tonight

Care to elaborate?

Damien Williams Evs
Mike Williams 9/4
Tyrell Williams 7/2
Darrel Williams 9/2

I was mainly being a dick, but probably Tyrell of the 4. He outsnaps Mike every week and I think he'll do well against the Chiefs CBs. Mike is more of a redzone threat though.

The Chiefs brother. Darrel hasn't touched a ball in the NFL. Damien may well score but honestly I'm a little worried the Char West takes a lot of the ball having proved he could do it for the Chiefs (admittedly) a couple of years back

[Peter-27]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

[Cavey007]

I think Williams will score in the NFL tonight

Care to elaborate?

Damien Williams Evs
Mike Williams 9/4
Tyrell Williams 7/2
Darrel Williams 9/2

I was mainly being a dick, but probably Tyrell of the 4. He outsnaps Mike every week and I think he'll do well against the Chiefs CBs. Mike is more of a redzone threat though.

The Chiefs brother. Darrel hasn't touched a ball in the NFL. Damien may well score but honestly I'm a little worried the Char West takes a lot of the ball having proved he could do it for the Chiefs (admittedly) a couple of years back

Of course Tyrell was the only one who didn't!

[Tal]

I think Williams will score in the NFL tonight

Care to elaborate?

Damien Williams Evs
Mike Williams 9/4
Tyrell Williams 7/2
Darrel Williams 9/2

I was mainly being a dick, but probably Tyrell of the 4. He outsnaps Mike every week and I think he'll do well against the Chiefs CBs. Mike is more of a redzone threat though.

The Chiefs brother. Darrel hasn't touched a ball in the NFL. Damien may well score but honestly I'm a little worried the Char West takes a lot of the ball having proved he could do it for the Chiefs (admittedly) a couple of years back

Of course Tyrell was the only one who didn't!

[Peter-27]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

[TightEnd]

Unfortunately the firms offering prices are 365, Ladbrokes, Betfair Sportsbook and Betway, none of whom are available for us

[Doobs]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

These each way terms look pretty terrible with an open market and 20 odd runners.

Odd that paddy power isn't offering prices but bf spoortsbook is, I thought they were pretty much the same these days.   Maybe they don't want to risk getting stung in the shops by Peter's crew?

Cars are looking pretty good this year.

[Peter-27]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

These each way terms look pretty terrible with an open market and 20 odd runners.

Odd that paddy power isn't offering prices but bf spoortsbook is, I thought they were pretty much the same these days.   Maybe they don't want to risk getting stung in the shops by Peter's crew?

Cars are looking pretty good this year.

You think? On what basis? Surely that logic would assume all drivers are equal ability, which obviously isn't the case.

[BigAdz]

Woken to find Tikay has beaten me to it elsewhere, but Billy have the Caspian at Chelts as paying first 7.

A must bet rather race.

Suggest 25 ew on each.

Cepage

Romain de Senam

Guitar Pete.

[tikay]

Woken to find Tikay has beaten me to it elsewhere, but Billy have the Caspian at Chelts as paying first 7.

A must bet rather race.

Suggest 25 ew on each.

Cepage

Romain de Senam

Guitar Pete.

Thanks Adzy,

Why not? Might as well try & get some Xmas money. And if they all bomb, we can cancel Xmas. Win-Win if ever I saw it.

All three are on.

Guitar Pete @ 9/1

Cepage @ 11/1

Romain de Senam @ 12/1  


All £25 EW, one fifth odds, 7 places.

Click to see full-size image.

 

[Doobs]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

These each way terms look pretty terrible with an open market and 20 odd runners.

Odd that paddy power isn't offering prices but bf spoortsbook is, I thought they were pretty much the same these days.   Maybe they don't want to risk getting stung in the shops by Peter's crew?

Cars are looking pretty good this year.

You think? On what basis? Surely that logic would assume all drivers are equal ability, which obviously isn't the case.

The each way terms are terrible for that market.  I am not saying your view of the prices are wrong, just the place terms are clearly awful.   Assessing good place terms does not rely on equal ability.

If this was a top goalscorer or a horse race they would be offering quarter first four or fifth first 5 (and fifth first 5 makes me grumpy though it may be fairer for the bookie!).   

It should be implicit from the wording of my post, I tried to put bets on, just not each way.

[doubleup]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

These each way terms look pretty terrible with an open market and 20 odd runners.

Odd that paddy power isn't offering prices but bf spoortsbook is, I thought they were pretty much the same these days.   Maybe they don't want to risk getting stung in the shops by Peter's crew?

Cars are looking pretty good this year.

You think? On what basis? Surely that logic would assume all drivers are equal ability, which obviously isn't the case.

The each way terms are terrible for that market.  I am not saying your view of the prices are wrong, just the place terms are clearly awful.   Assessing good place terms does not rely on equal ability.

If this was a top goalscorer or a horse race they would be offering quarter first four or fifth first 5 (and fifth first 5 makes me grumpy though it may be fairer for the bookie!).   

It should be implicit from the wording of my post, I tried to put bets on, just not each way.

Although the terms are bad, if the prices are very good, isn't it possible that the place part of the each way bet is still profitable, but less profitable than a win bet (and with less variance)?  So if you decide to but on a £50 win bet as within your staking "budget" it wouldn't be wrong to put on a lower variance place bet?

The question marks are there because I'm not really sure how to assess it in marginal situations.

[Doobs]

Season five of the Formula E championship begins this weekend with the A-d Diriyah ePrix in Saudi Arabia. Despite my numerous e-mails, many bookies are refusing to price up the market. However, we do have a bigger selection of options than in previous seasons.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/drivers-championship

With a brand new car for this season, there's definitely value out there. However, with only three officially timed test days taking place back in October, knowing who's going to be fastest is extremely tricky.

Nevertheless, there are some very good spots we need to be taking.

The BMW's looked quickest by some margin during the three test days. Whether or not they've managed to maintain that remains to be seen. It would be huge surprise if they're not in the mix for wins though. Their drivers have exceptionally good prices so I would suggest bets on both.

Alexander Sims (14/1) - £50 EW (1-3 1/5).
Antonio Felix da Costa (12/1) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Higher stake on Alex purely because I see him coming on top in that battle over the course of the season, although I would expect Antonio to potentially be quicker for the first few races.

Mahindra Racing were the third quickest team during testing, and signing up one of the six drivers who has taken part in every Formula E race to date is a very interesting move. Why he is 50/1+ is nothing short of an abomination.

Jerome d'Ambrosio (50/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

Virgin Racing were near the back during testing, however they're a customer team of the defending champions Audi. If current champion Lucas di Grassi (Audi) is the title favourite according to the bookies, I don't see why Sam Bird (Virgin) should be 20/1+. Sam has won multiple races in the past, and is another of the drivers to take part in every single Formula E race to date.

Sam Bird (20/1+) - £20 EW (1-3 1/5).

Finally, I want to suggest we have money on the fastest driver in the field. If he has a competitive car, he will be up there.

Felipe Massa (9/1+) - £10 EW (1-3 1/5).

With these bets I'm covering five drivers across four teams. I'll be extremely disappointed if at least one of these selections doesn't come in. Let's see how it plays out.

These bets would need to go on today by the way. The event is tomorrow, contrary to most motorsport series.

These each way terms look pretty terrible with an open market and 20 odd runners.

Odd that paddy power isn't offering prices but bf spoortsbook is, I thought they were pretty much the same these days.   Maybe they don't want to risk getting stung in the shops by Peter's crew?

Cars are looking pretty good this year.

You think? On what basis? Surely that logic would assume all drivers are equal ability, which obviously isn't the case.

The each way terms are terrible for that market.  I am not saying your view of the prices are wrong, just the place terms are clearly awful.   Assessing good place terms does not rely on equal ability.

If this was a top goalscorer or a horse race they would be offering quarter first four or fifth first 5 (and fifth first 5 makes me grumpy though it may be fairer for the bookie!).   

It should be implicit from the wording of my post, I tried to put bets on, just not each way.

Although the terms are bad, if the prices are very good, isn't it possible that the place part of the each way bet is still profitable, but less profitable than a win bet (and with less variance)?  So if you decide to but on a £50 win bet as within your staking "budget" it wouldn't be wrong to put on a lower variance place bet?

The question marks are there because I'm not really sure how to assess it in marginal situations.

If you look at a market and it looks like it should be fifth first 5 (we'll call it that as quarter first 4 is generous), then you are losing 40% of your places.   It doesn't quite work out that you lose 40% of your place value with a 12/1 chance as he is more likely to be first than fifth, so maybe you are starting from a 30% penalty.   Nobody has an ROI to overcome that penalty. 

You could argue that formula E could be a market where we have a 30% edge, but that falls over when you pick 5 runners. 

You can reduce your variance by picking 5 win only or changing yiur bet sizing(just bet with BF sportsbook for this).   Say if you have a 15% edge, you would make 15% long run, if you make them all each way, you have given away your entire 15% edge.   

[Peter-27]

Not one for the thread as it's Betway, but based on the grid positions after a bizarre qualifying session, I'm happy to take £20 to win on da Costa at 3/1. He starts on pole.

You don't have long though, race starts just after midday UK time.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-e/ad-diriyah/winner