Tips for Tikay

[Peter-27]

I got Fred an Ayrton on the 33/1 poke.

You are the best, thanks Marky.

Thanks also to Peter who is starting to become a serious poker player. He's the Quickdraw Champ now.

You do flatter me! 

I am really looking forward to seeing Charles LeClerc in the Ferrari too.  I did get on earlier at a bigger price but was limited to £50 max win.   Grates a bit to see him described as the most promising of all time, and I don't even think Vettel is the best now.   I do think Ferrari have an edge right now though.

Why does it "grate" a bit to see him described as the most promising of all time?

Sebastian has not been performing to his potential over the last few seasons, but I still consider him the best driver. Although, if he doesn't bounce back this season, with a team mate who can actually push him, then I may need to reconsider that statement.

[Peter-27]

Here are some other solid pre-season spots I have found.

- Gasly to finish exactly 6th in the drivers' and Red Bull to finish exactly 3rd in the constructors' championships @ 9/4. Should be more like 6/4.
https://m.skybet.com/formula-1/formula-1-2019-season/event/22597676

- Season match bets
Gasly to beat Verstappen @ 6/1 (William Hill best price), should be more like 3/1.
Albon to beat Kvyat @ 7/4 (William Hill best price), should be EVS. Curiously, WH are offering 7/4 on Albon for Albon vs Kvyat, and 13/8 for Albon on Kvyat vs Albon.
Stroll to beat Perez @ 3/1 (William Hill best price), should be 2/1.
Giovinazzi to beat Raikkonen @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes best price), should be 3/1.

https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/motor-racing
https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/formula-1/formula-1/world-championship/2019-season-points-match-bet/227893892/

Australian GP specific bets will now come tomorrow.

For those interested, here is my pre-season analysis, and pecking order, that I have complied for an F1 community I run. Note: unlike other people's analysis, I try to factor in development rate to determine the final championship standings which are not necessarily the same as what we'll see at the first race.

1) Ferrari. Will start the season around 0. per lap clear of Mercedes, and ultimately win both championships. Driver's title is basically a 50-50, depending on who has the better reliability.

2) Mercedes. Will out develop Ferrari over the season, and may even be faster in the later races - but the damage will be done by then. Well clear of Red Bull. Hamilton to beat Bottas considerably; Bottas seems mentally defeated already.

3) Red Bull. All on their own really. Although, they will shine in occasional races, expect them to have one or two wins during the season. Verstappen will be the quicker driver, but Gasly will come out on top in the championship.

4) Renault. The experience of their drivers will be what steals them 4th in the championship. Expecting a very close battle with the 5th & 6th placed teams (below). Ricciardo to consistently be quicker than Hulkenberg, but that doesn't mean Hulkenberg will be slow, Ricciardo is just super talented.

5) Toro Rosso. They'll have their best start to an F1 season ever, and results will tail off in the middle of the season. However, a late flurry of results will be seen in the last 5/6 races. Occasionally, some drivers perform considerably better in F1 than they ever demonstrated in lower categories, and I believe Albon will be an example of this. He will consistently beat Kvyat by an increasing margin as the season progresses.

6) Haas. At the back of the upper midfield, but without being challenged by those behind on a consistent basis. The car will be good but operational errors and driver mistakes will mean they lose out to Toro Rosso. Grosjean to beat Magnussen over the season in my prediction, but in reality it will come down to who makes the fewest errors.

7) Alfa Romeo. The experience of Raikkonen will help develop that car a lot over the season and Alfa Romeo will lead the lower midfield all year. Giovinazzi vs Raikkonen will be very close all season. I predict Giovinazzi to come out on top - but it'll be close.

8 ) Racing Point. Strong development will see them as the 5th fastest car at the end of the season. A big deficit in the early part of the year will be difficult to overcome though. Stroll will shock everyone by coming out on top over the season, but maybe not at the start of the year. He will take some time to settle in the car.

9) McLaren. Strong progress and much more competitive than in 2018 - despite the low position. Sainz is a "safe paid of hands" and will take opportunities for points when they come along. Norris will really struggle to be on the pace all year.

10) Williams. Will struggle all season, and be some way off the pace of anyone. Russell to start the season on top, and both drivers will develop as the season progresses. I don't believe Russell to be as talented as people believe though; I expect Robert to be on top come the end of the year.

[DropTheHammer]

Thanks for the recommendations Peter, and for noting the best price in Your post. Will make watching the F1 plenty more exciting   

[bunnydas8888]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

[doubleup]

Thanks for the FI write up, Peter.

[Peter-27]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

[Karabiner]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

You certainly are thorough in your research Peter which is exactly why I bet on your recommends if I can.

[Peter-27]

Okay, Australian GP bets.

Not much too choose from, although I am exercising caution as part of my "quality, not quantity" strategy. Australia is also an unusual circuit which often throws up unusual results.

Points Finish - Antonio Giovinazzi @ 7/2+ (William Hill best price). A promising youngster in a seemingly bullet proof car (if pre-season testing is anything to go by) with an unique and innovative front wing concept. Price is slightly out of line given that his team mate is 9/10. I would have thought he should be 5/2.
https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/australian-grand-prix/points-finish

Double Points Finish - Toro Rosso @ 16/1 (365/Sporting Bet best price). As touched upon before, the car looked extremely strong in pre-season testing. There are an array of prices on this with the lowest being 4/1! Clearly 16/1 is value. I would have priced it at around the 8/1 mark.
https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/australian-grand-prix/double-points-finish

Also, is there any love from the thread for my Ferrari Constructors Champions bet? I really can't stress enough how much of a good spot that is. 11/8 on WH.

[Peter-27]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

You certainly are thorough in your research Peter which is exactly why I bet on your recommends if I can.

Can't take credit for that, I saw it on twitter! Although, I did double check it myself.

[Juperjiper]

Sky aren’t doing BOG on the first race tomorrow and are currently 4/9 on the favourite which is 2.08 on exchange lol

[Chompy]

They don't seem to be offering BOG on overnights at all any more. Noticed it earlier in the week.

[bunnydas8888]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

I was thinking more of the constructors doing it, front 6 way up the road, you have a pit window gap to nearest rival so they pit you for fresh boots.

Appreciate it won't affect the drivers standings much/if At all. But if there's an extra 10/15 points that a torro/haas/stroll can pick up in a v tight mid-field battle?

[Peter-27]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

I was thinking more of the constructors doing it, front 6 way up the road, you have a pit window gap to nearest rival so they pit you for fresh boots.

Appreciate it won't affect the drivers standings much/if At all. But if there's an extra 10/15 points that a torro/haas/stroll can pick up in a v tight mid-field battle?

How often does someone between 7th-10th have a 20-25 second gap to the car behind which would allow a pit stop? Maybe once per year, if that.

[bunnydas8888]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

I was thinking more of the constructors doing it, front 6 way up the road, you have a pit window gap to nearest rival so they pit you for fresh boots.

Appreciate it won't affect the drivers standings much/if At all. But if there's an extra 10/15 points that a torro/haas/stroll can pick up in a v tight mid-field battle?

How often does someone between 7th-10th have a 20-25 second gap to the car behind which would allow a pit stop? Maybe once per year, if that.

Yeah fair comment. We could hope they have a smaller gap and decide they can get back passed and go purple!

[Peter-27]

Do you think the point for fastest lap will make much difference?

I'm thinking in the midfield, they may compromise 1 drivers strategy (If it looks like they won't be getting much out of the race) to put on new boots near the end to steal a point?

Not at all. If you look back through the data since 2011, awarding a point for fastest lap would have only changed the positions of three drivers in the championship;

Raikkonen from 12th to 11th in 2014
Ricciardo from 8th to 7th in 2015
Bottas from 5th to 3rd in 2018

You're only eligible for the fastest lap point if you're in the top ten - when you score points anyway. So, no-one would just pit to get the point.

I was thinking more of the constructors doing it, front 6 way up the road, you have a pit window gap to nearest rival so they pit you for fresh boots.

Appreciate it won't affect the drivers standings much/if At all. But if there's an extra 10/15 points that a torro/haas/stroll can pick up in a v tight mid-field battle?

How often does someone between 7th-10th have a 20-25 second gap to the car behind which would allow a pit stop? Maybe once per year, if that.

Yeah fair comment. We could hope they have a smaller gap and decide they can get back passed and go purple!

I can't see anyone risking guaranteed points in the small hope of gaining one extra, especially given how hard it is to overtake these days.