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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13333355 times)
tikay
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« Reply #136230 on: June 25, 2019, 11:19:53 PM »



Obviously if Bialco loses he’d be returning the winnings from Bailarico...

Can he win this argument?

No way.
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« Reply #136231 on: June 25, 2019, 11:44:05 PM »

He's got no chance. If you realise before it runs then maybe, but after the horse you didn't write down wins you obv can't then claim it!

The ambiguous rule they reference is more for when you have Red Rum and Blue Whiskey running in the same race and write down Red Whiskey.

I'm all for arguing the punter side in these cases (having been on the losing side of several IBAS claims in the past!) but this is not one i'd be confident on. I suppose no harm in trying...
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« Reply #136232 on: June 27, 2019, 06:43:20 PM »

Shy so not for fred but Palace to be bottom London club (Palace, WHU, Chelsea, Spurs, Arse) at 2/3 is dynamite Shirley?
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« Reply #136233 on: June 28, 2019, 09:03:37 AM »

Shy so not for fred but Palace to be bottom London club (Palace, WHU, Chelsea, Spurs, Arse) at 2/3 is dynamite Shirley?

It just turns into a toss up between them and WHU at 6/4. Could profitably back both, but is probably an account closer if doing so at big sums. Palace could be getting £100m+ this window with Bissaka and Zaha leaving, and it remains to be seen if that could be properly reinvested to make WHU the better bet here. We would be a little shell shocked without Zaha and could struggle though.
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« Reply #136234 on: June 28, 2019, 06:32:48 PM »

Shy so not for fred but Palace to be bottom London club (Palace, WHU, Chelsea, Spurs, Arse) at 2/3 is dynamite Shirley?

It just turns into a toss up between them and WHU at 6/4. Could profitably back both, but is probably an account closer if doing so at big sums. Palace could be getting £100m+ this window with Bissaka and Zaha leaving, and it remains to be seen if that could be properly reinvested to make WHU the better bet here. We would be a little shell shocked without Zaha and could struggle though.

I can see WHU pushing on again this coming season. They have a top manager in Pellegrini and the board and fans look to be backing him all the way. A year getting his ideas across and getting the players on board should see them, at the very least, maintain the top 10 spot they snagged in May.

To potentially lose both Zaha and AWB in the same window is gonna be a huge loss of talent from the squad. Even with decent recruitment to replace them, it's a void in the squad that money might struggle to compensate for. How do you replace that level of quality?

That's why I think the 2/3 really appeals; possible regression with Palace and possible improvement with the Hammers. There wasn't a huge amount between them last year (3 points ultimately) but I think that gap will widen in 19/20, unless Palace can really pull some rabbits out the transfer window hat.
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« Reply #136235 on: June 28, 2019, 06:46:05 PM »

Without Zaha winning Palace penalties I can only see Palace struggling. Sorry Ant. Not sure Wilfy gets the recognition he deserves and craves so badly yet.

Where we think he's going though? Arsenal surely can't afford him and Spuds seem to have other targets. Germany?

That aside, my gut feeling is I couldn't back a non penalty taker for the golden boot next season given the changes.
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« Reply #136236 on: June 28, 2019, 07:33:05 PM »

I make Palace a 2/5 shot in this market and wouldn't be overly keen on laying it.   4/6 looks a gift to me if you happy tying your money up odds on for a year.  Don't forget WH lost their first four games last season so the 3 point gap is slightly misleading once the new gaffer/players settled in as the season went on.
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« Reply #136237 on: June 30, 2019, 01:27:52 AM »

I was only positing if there was value in the 2/3 as its small, i had no real argument to suggest Palace could outdo West Ham.

Solid arguments above.

I just think if we are careful with how we spend we could be a more successful team.

Say 5 good value 20m players could outweigh Bissakas and Zaha's input on the whole. It's gonna be interesting to see how it pans out. It's unlikley i guess because Zaha is a beast that will really show how good he is at a club that starts him every week or close to it. Maybe Arsenal? Spurs would be a good fit i think, but he would have to be prepared to not start every game and i don't think he has the patience for that and could falter.

Wan Bissaka is quick, hardly gets beaten one on one defensively with his go to slide tackle, good running with the ball going forward and getting up and down the pitch. Cons would be he is often out of position and is a little green about that, with experience that will be fine. He is also not the best with the final ball with crosses and passing. I would think with repetition training he could learn to ping a quality ball in but he never had consistency with that at Palace. He strikes me as a player that would have great value slipping into an already good team like Man U but at Palace because of how the rest of the backline could be letting him down, his effectiveness is wasted a little.

We have spent quite well in the recent past with PVA, Schlupp, Milo, kouyate, Tomkins (when fit), Townsend and we have loan signed in excellently two seasons in a row as well. Sorloth obviously not great as was Meyer but he was free though, albeit huge wages.

I'm hopeful we could solidify with the money. Kelly for example, even as back up, getting anywhere near our starting line up is where this money could go to correct.
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« Reply #136238 on: June 30, 2019, 01:59:29 PM »

Just placed £5 on Lando Norris to podiumvate at 22/1 with Ladbrokes. 22/1 is about right TBH, it's a bit punty if anything. Just have a feeling.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/austrian-grand-prix/top-3-finish
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« Reply #136239 on: June 30, 2019, 05:49:17 PM »

Some random special on Betfair, what do we think?

Man City win Premier League, B. Silva PFA POTY, Spurs top 4 finish, Leicester & Wolves top 10 finish & Norwich relegated
@100/1

I'm too stupid and hungover to work out the maths on it (plus prices for POTY ain't up yet but I'd expect B.Silva to be amongst the favourites).
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« Reply #136240 on: June 30, 2019, 06:11:07 PM »

Some random special on Betfair, what do we think?

Man City win Premier League, B. Silva PFA POTY, Spurs top 4 finish, Leicester & Wolves top 10 finish & Norwich relegated
@100/1

I'm too stupid and hungover to work out the maths on it (plus prices for POTY ain't up yet but I'd expect B.Silva to be amongst the favourites).

looks bad.   not sure what the real prices are, but roughly 4/5, 10/1, evens the last 4, suggests it should be roughly 300/1?   I can't be far enough out to make it a good spot?   Guess B Silva is never starting 3/1 anyway.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #136241 on: June 30, 2019, 06:34:13 PM »

Some random special on Betfair, what do we think?

Man City win Premier League, B. Silva PFA POTY, Spurs top 4 finish, Leicester & Wolves top 10 finish & Norwich relegated
@100/1

I'm too stupid and hungover to work out the maths on it (plus prices for POTY ain't up yet but I'd expect B.Silva to be amongst the favourites).

looks bad.   not sure what the real prices are, but roughly 4/5, 10/1, evens the last 4, suggests it should be roughly 300/1?   I can't be far enough out to make it a good spot?   Guess B Silva is never starting 3/1 anyway.

Best prices...

City  4/6
Spurs 4/6
Wolves 1/2
Leicester 4/6
Norwich 21/20

Imagine Silva might go off about 12/1 but pure guesswork on my part. Even with my limited maths I guess 100/1 still isn't brilliant based on the above.
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« Reply #136242 on: June 30, 2019, 06:49:47 PM »

Some random special on Betfair, what do we think?

Man City win Premier League, B. Silva PFA POTY, Spurs top 4 finish, Leicester & Wolves top 10 finish & Norwich relegated
@100/1

I'm too stupid and hungover to work out the maths on it (plus prices for POTY ain't up yet but I'd expect B.Silva to be amongst the favourites).

looks bad.   not sure what the real prices are, but roughly 4/5, 10/1, evens the last 4, suggests it should be roughly 300/1?   I can't be far enough out to make it a good spot?   Guess B Silva is never starting 3/1 anyway.

Best prices...

City  4/6
Spurs 4/6
Wolves 1/2
Leicester 4/6
Norwich 21/20

Imagine Silva might go off about 12/1 but pure guesswork on my part. Even with my limited maths I guess 100/1 still isn't brilliant based on the above.


That looks about 180/1 in my head.   Betfair prices are likely to be bigger too, but can't see them from here; I'd be looking to lay at least 3 of those.  Avoid for me.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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« Reply #136243 on: June 30, 2019, 06:54:24 PM »

Cheers Doobs. I trust you are enjoying Vegas Smiley

It's a painful wait for these POTY year prices but I hope Tikay is ready to unload the clip on B.Silva when they are finally released.
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« Reply #136244 on: July 01, 2019, 04:14:34 PM »

Alison Riske with a very tough draw at Wimbledon. Quarter one is one of the toughest I have ever seen in a Grand Slam. She plays big hitting Julia Goerges tomorrow - Goerges certainly has a very good chance of a deep run too.
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