Tips for Tikay

[Chompy]

Time to dust off the Hills account again.

£80 Poshies to get promoted, 9-2.

Nobody in L1 will sign better this summer than we have already. Pym, Butler and Eisa for a club-record fee all incred pick-ups.

Dont like this at all. You've been a long long way off the pace for the last couple seasons. I think your final season has actually been quite flattering. Sunderland, pompey would still be stronger then you even with those signings. Not to mention teams coming down and the couple rogue one season wonders (Shrewsbury/rochdale/doncastsr) etc I dont think 9-2 is value at all

After an unsurprisingly slow start, the rate of improvement has been amazing. Way quicker than I was expecting and there's still more to come. We've won our last five games by a combined 17-0, including a 3-0 over Sunderland.

We're still way under the radar, though, and anything close to 3-1 is still luvverly. Everyone is half-expecting the usual autumn collapse but things are very different this time. Squad-mentality wise as much as anything.

Frazer Blake-Tracy, Josh Knight, George Boyd, Mo Eisa, Marcus Maddison and Ivan Toney all walk into a number of Champo sides.

Ivan Toney 6-1 EW four spots is also golden for top scorer. He's on seven already. We turned down £4m for him on deadline day (Barnsley and Chalrton were both in) and, unless someone comes in with a crazy up-front offer in January he won't be going anywhere.

[BigAdz]

He was soon forgotten after a promising start and a mate if mine pinged me a couple of days regarding one of his rides on the AW. Expect he'll soon be back in the emerald isle.

Yeah real odd one. Saw him ride a winner soon after it was put up and thought he was rock solid.

Fickle stuff at that level. Girls seem to be all the rage atm.

Hollie Doyle in particular. I had a chunk on Georgia Dobie +40 when Hills put their handicap up. Normally 50 is good enough to win this market and Ms Dobie has more than done her bit, but Hollie's link up with Archie and various other Newmarket trainers has blown the rest out the water.

She's ninth in the 2019 winners' list with 87, which puts her only five behind SDS. She could easily make the top five next season. And if Wuzzin eases off, who knows?

Yep, she is a good safe pair of hands. Always feel like she trying her best, along with Nicola Currie.

Young master Fallon looks different gravy. What a treble yesterday.

[Doobs]

I was going to post this a week or so ago, but what are peoples experiences with restrictions? Got about 6 different restricted accounts now, because of politics betting. But some allow me to bet as normal on football and others choose to restrict me on everything..... (whilst of course not being allowed anything on politics)

I've never been restricted on a specific "sport" before. It's either a full account restriction, or nothing.

I think a lot of the time it is just different max limits for sports showing up in the restrictions.

I am heavily restricted with most bookies, but can still get a decent bet on the premier league 1-2-X market pretty much anywhere, and can win a few hundred on a big Saturday race (PP is better than Shy, but they both let me win over £100).  Try and get a bet on the NFL draft, or a niche politics market and I am going to get offered single figure pounds with pretty much all bookies. 

It isn't always the case, because I did have one account (Boyles) that wouldn't let me have any bet on horse racing at all after putting an each way trixie on.  For a while they let me bet on other sports, but they closed everything else after a few months. 

[Karabiner]

I like The Goat on the sky midweek goals panel - Sybil Fawlty not so much.

[Jamier-Host]

Ivan Toney 6-1 EW four spots is also golden for top scorer. He's on seven already. We turned down £4m for him on deadline day (Barnsley and Chalrton were both in) and, unless someone comes in with a crazy up-front offer in January he won't be going anywhere.

Every time I do a bet like this the guy moves in January!

[Peter-27]

Don't have time to do a full write-up, but I'm liking Charles Leclerc to win the Singapore GP this weekend, 5/1+. Should be more like 3/1 IMO.

Also, worth noting that Ladbrokes are going EW top three.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/winner

Qualifying starts at 14:00 UK time.

[bunnydas8888]

Don't have time to do a full write-up, but I'm liking Charles Leclerc to win the Singapore GP this weekend, 5/1+. Should be more like 3/1 IMO.

Also, worth noting that Ladbrokes are going EW top three.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/winner

Qualifying starts at 14:00 UK time.

Looks a great shout after qualy, didn't expect the Ferrari's to be that quick! Would love to hear your full write up if you manage to find the time

[tikay]

Don't have time to do a full write-up, but I'm liking Charles Leclerc to win the Singapore GP this weekend, 5/1+. Should be more like 3/1 IMO.

Also, worth noting that Ladbrokes are going EW top three.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/winner

Qualifying starts at 14:00 UK time.

That's looking great value now Peter, well done.

Start time - it's rare for you to get these things wrong, so I'm a little apprehensive at correcting you, but I'm almost certain that the race starts at 13.10 UK time (1.10pm).

[Peter-27]

Don't have time to do a full write-up, but I'm liking Charles Leclerc to win the Singapore GP this weekend, 5/1+. Should be more like 3/1 IMO.

Also, worth noting that Ladbrokes are going EW top three.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/winner

Qualifying starts at 14:00 UK time.

Looks a great shout after qualy, didn't expect the Ferrari's to be that quick! Would love to hear your full write up if you manage to find the time

It was all about FP3 and the vehicle dynamics. From the ride height between Ferrari and Mercedes I could tell they were on similar fuel loads, but the Ferrari looks considerably more planted through the corners whereas the Mercedes had too much understeer, particularly at low speed. Understeer makes a car easy to drive, but it's slow. Charles over Sebastian purely because Charles is on the form of his life right now (and still developing) whereas Sebastian seems to have lost his edge.

Don't have time to do a full write-up, but I'm liking Charles Leclerc to win the Singapore GP this weekend, 5/1+. Should be more like 3/1 IMO.

Also, worth noting that Ladbrokes are going EW top three.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/winner

Qualifying starts at 14:00 UK time.

That's looking great value now Peter, well done.

Start time - it's rare for you to get these things wrong, so I'm a little apprehensive at correcting you, but I'm almost certain that the race starts at 13.10 UK time (1.10pm).

You are right ... to be apprehensive. Read what I wrote again. 

There's going to be a lot of value for tomorrow's race. I'll be posting some suggestions on here at about 11:00 AM UK time.

[BigAdz]

Hi Pieter

How is the Albon bet looking?

I see he is in there pitching but after the Hamilton start, I haven't paid much attention to F1

Is he on the move or is it looking unlikely?

TY

[Peter-27]

The F1 market is actually fairly well priced today, but I do have one suggestion;

Antonio Giovinazzi not to finish the race at 11/4. While he is improving, the Italian is prone to mistakes, and being a (sort of) rookie driver at the most physically demanding race of the season could result in another mistake today. Personally I would have priced this at more like 7/4.

Note: the 11/4 price is available at multiple places, but as far as I can see, William Hill are the only bookie going "not to complete the race" rather than "not to be classified" which are different things. Go with William Hill.

https://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-1/singapore-grand-prix/not-to-finish-the-race

I'm also interested in a RequestABet that Sky have up; Both Ferraris to finish top 6 in the race. Price seems a little high to me at 4/6. I'm going to be mulling that over until lights out.

[Peter-27]

Hi Pieter

How is the Albon bet looking?

I see he is in there pitching but after the Hamilton start, I haven't paid much attention to F1

Is he on the move or is it looking unlikely?

TY

Depends which one you mean, as I have two.

The one to beat Kvyat over the season (7/4) is almost in the bag at this point. Albon's only one point ahead, but in a vastly superior car. With seven races left, that should win comfortably.

As for "championship without big six" (33/1), he's two places and 24 points off achieving that. Again though, given his car, it should romp home. Although, a run DNF's might make this one a little more tricky.

[Peter-27]

I've done something which is either going to prove stupid, or inspired.  

Charles Leclerc to win the 2019 Drivers Championship at 80/1 (boosted to 100/1 on Ladbrokes). He's 102 points behind Lewis Hamilton in the championship with seven races to go, so he needs a massive swing of 14.6 points per race to manage it. The Ferrari was fundamentally the quickest car at Spa, Monza, and also Singapore this weekend - if it's quick at those three circuits it'll be quick anywhere. This does need Lewis to have a few DNF's as the season continues, but 80/1 feels like an incredible opportunity. It's also probably the best price we're going to get on Charles to win the title ever. Not just this season. But, EVER.

Good luck if anyone copies.

[Tal]

Denver @ Green Bay
Jamaal Williams rushing yards
Over 22.5 @ 5/6 (Beteveryday and Betwhey)

Matt LeFleur, the packers head coach, said in the week that he was concerned about using their best running back, Aaron Jones, too much and burning him out. He said he would even up the carries this week for the number two, Jamaal Williams, whose 28 rushing yards last week were his first of the season. Williams had an ankle knock midweek but he is good to go.

If the packers have any hope of making the playoffs, they have to win this game and that should lead to a positive gamescript and carries for the running backs.

Numberfire project 44.22 yards for him.

This line is way too low, in my opinion, so I'm proposing a healthy wager.

Recommend £42 at 5/6

[Tal]

New Orleans @ Seattle
First Half spread
New Orleans Saints +3
20/23 Billy Mountains

With Drew Brees out, expect head coach sean payton to have concocted some weird plays over the past week, possibly involving now 2nd string QB Taysom Hill, in the house of a conservative seattle team.

Seattle will look to keep it tight, I expect, with this being the team that unfashionably favours the run over the pass.

Very happy with the underdog before HT.

Recommend £30